EUR

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) recovered off 0.5900 Thursday against the US Dollar (USD) regaining losses to 0.5970. New Zealand business confidence improved in September to 1.5% from August’s -3.7% amid a mixed set of sub-indices. Employment intentions were a positive mover while construction was well down. Overall pressure remains to the downside for the kiwi, a retest of 0.6000 would certainly change our view of big picture momentum. The RBNZ still has a hike to go before April – this is now starting to be priced into the cross. Next week’s RBNZ cash rate announcement and policy may highlight when a hike may eventuate but for now those buying USD – fill ya boots.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.5963

The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5899- 0.5974

Mid-week action saw the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extend its run against the Australian Dollar (AUD), the cross reaching 0.9325 (1.0725) before pulling back hard in overnight markets breaking past 0.9295 (1.0760) bull channel support on its way to clock 0.9276 (1.0780) as I write. We aren’t convinced the Aussie support will dominate into the weekly close, if we see the AUD outperform it may be limited to the 0.9260 (1.0800) zone. Both the RBA and RBNZ meet next week, both are predicted to leave rates on hold and possibly signal when their last interest rate hikes will take place.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9277    AUDNZD 1.0776

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9250- 0.9328    AUDNZD 1.0720- 1.0810

The long-term bull trend from early August in the Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) cross continued Monday with price hovering around the two-week lows at 0.6070 (1.6480). Higher lows followed by higher high’s has been the theme over recent weeks suggesting a retest of 0.6030 (1.6585) over the week before further upside develops in the pair. Current price at 0.6065 (1.6490) also sits bang on the 50% Fibonacci resistance giving further confirmation of a temporary retrace lower for the Aussie.

Current Level: 1.6496
Resistance: 1.7010
Support: 1.6340
Last Weeks Range: 1.6467 – 1.6650

The long-term bull trend from early August in the Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) cross continued Monday with price hovering around the two-week lows at 0.6070 (1.6480). Higher lows followed by higher high’s has been the theme over recent weeks suggesting a retest of 0.6030 (1.6585) over the week before further upside develops in the pair. Current price at 0.6065 (1.6490) also sits bang on the 50% Fibonacci resistance giving further confirmation of a temporary retrace lower for the Aussie.

Current Level: 0.6062
Resistance: 0.6120
Support: 0.5880
Last Weeks Range: 0.6006- 0.6072

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended the recent move higher against the British Pound (GBP) into the weekly close to 0.5265 (1.9000), this is the 5th week straight we have seen the AUD outperform reversing off 0.5000 (2.000). 0.5265 (1.9000) represents a resistance pivot point for the cross with direction from here uncertain. We wouldn’t be surprised if the AUD reversed towards 0.5170 (1.9350) over the week.

Current Level: 1.9015
Resistance: 1.9900
Support: 1.8605
Last Weeks Range: 1.8969 – 1.9282

The bear trend momentum in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) kicked into another gear Monday deepening the long-term reversal seen in the cross from mid August’s 1.8460 (0.5420) to 1.7755 (0.5630) today. A breakout past 0.5585 (1.7900) looks to have completed on the chart, the signal needed for a new trend supporting the NZD for a run up to 0.5655 (1.7680). We will certainly see over the coming days if our direction hunch is correct, and the kiwi etches out a longer-term base.

Current Level: 1.7771
Resistance: 1.8400
Support: 1.7560
Last Weeks Range: 1.7790 – 1.8081

The bear trend momentum in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) kicked into another gear Monday deepening the long-term reversal seen in the cross from mid August’s 1.8460 (0.5420) to 1.7755 (0.5630) today. A breakout past 0.5585 (1.7900) looks to have completed on the chart, the signal needed for a new trend supporting the NZD for a run up to 0.5655 (1.7680). We will certainly see over the coming days if our direction hunch is correct, and the kiwi etches out a longer-term base.

Current Level: 0.5627
Support: 0.5435
Resistance: 0.5695
Last week’s range: 0.5530 – 0.5621

Apart from a small uptick early Monday off the open by the English Pound (GBP) to 0.4860 (2.0580), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has extended long term momentum reaching 0.4890 (2.0460) into Tuesday. The big picture uptrend from 6 weeks ago cleared resistance at 0.4875 (2.0520) which could imply the kiwi could carve out a longer-term uptrend however a push past 0.4905 (2.0380) could be tough.

Current Level: 2.0479
Resistance: 2.1600
Support: 2.0000
Last Weeks Range: 2.0485- 2.1000

Apart from a small uptick early Monday off the open by the English Pound (GBP) to 0.4860 (2.0580), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has extended long term momentum reaching 0.4890 (2.0460) into Tuesday. The big picture uptrend from 6 weeks ago cleared resistance at 0.4875 (2.0520) which could imply the kiwi could carve out a longer-term uptrend however a push past 0.4905 (2.0380) could be tough.

Current Level: 0.4883
Resistance: 0.5000
Support: 0.4630
Last Weeks Range: 0.4762 – 0.4881

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended last week’s push higher against the Australian Dollar (AUD) to 0.9295 (1.0760) clocking a fresh 7 week high in the pair. The breakout from the bear channel through 0.9210 (1.0860) made for a much larger correction move by the kiwi. Resistance is seen at 0.9320 (1.0730) the May high which we expect to hold over the week.

Current Level: 1.0759
Resistance: 1.0900
Support: 1.0720
Last Weeks Range: 1.0787 – 1.0905