EUR

The Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to bounce around recent levels without much conviction. The cross sits at the edge of range resistance this morning at 0.6080 (1.6450) after coming from the bottom of the band at 0.6025 (1.6600) mid last week. The ECB continues to worry about high inflation while they cut growth forecasts for 2024. A rebound is expected to be more modest than thought but will pick up the pace as prices slow and a strong labour market. French and German manufacturing is this week with forecasts of a pick-up in the sector adding a boost to the EUR.

Current Level: 0.6060
Resistance: 0.6105
Support: 0.6025
Last Weeks Range: 0.6020- 0.6077

The Australian Dollar (AUD) recovered off 0.5120 (1.9520) late in the week to claw back gains to 0.5190 (1.9260) this morning against the British Pound (GBP). Momentum to the downside has been broken with price travelling through the 0.5180 (1.9300) channel resistance area on its way to posting a fortnight high. RBA minutes releases today from their first meeting of 2024, the central bank will no doubt reiterate their concerns of high inflation and their call to hike if needed. Wednesday’s wage price index should confirm upside risks to wage growth and further work required from the RBA. We expect the Aussie to do well over the week.

Current Level: 1.9290
Resistance: 1.9520
Support: 1.9200
Last Weeks Range: 1.9253- 1.9528

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tracked higher into the close and extended in early week trading to reach 0.5710 (1.7515) against the Euro (EUR). The cross looks to target the yearly high from early January around 0.5740 (1.7420) as the kiwi gains pace. ECB president Lagarde was on the wires saying “we need to be more confident” that inflation is on track to hit its 2% target before considering rate cuts. NZ Retail Sales prints Friday and could come in much less than expected for the December quarter.

Current Level: 1.7559
Resistance: 1.7900
Support: 1.7500
Last Weeks Range: 1.7516- 1.7699

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tracked higher into the close and extended in early week trading to reach 0.5710 (1.7515) against the Euro (EUR). The cross looks to target the yearly high from early January around 0.5740 (1.7420) as the kiwi gains pace. ECB president Lagarde was on the wires saying “we need to be more confident” that inflation is on track to hit its 2% target before considering rate cuts. NZ Retail Sales prints Friday and could come in much less than expected for the December quarter.

Current Level: 0.5695
Support: 0.5585
Resistance: 0.5715
Last week’s range: 0.5650- 0.5709

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended gains on the British Pound (GBP) late in the week and into Monday’s open to 0.4890 (2.0450) This is a significant shift in momentum from mid last week’s action around 0.4800 (2.0820) and shows a trend change. UK Retail Sales came in above expectations of 1.5% at 3.4% after -3.3% prior. This boosted the Pound only briefly. On the chart the fib 50% retracement from the low at 0.4780 (2.0910) and the high at 0.5000 (2.0000) has been breached at 0.4880 (2.0500) signalling further upside could be instore for the kiwi.

Current Level: 2.0525
Resistance: 2.0770
Support: 2.0400
Last Weeks Range: 2.0518- 2.0816

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended gains on the British Pound (GBP) late in the week and into Monday’s open to 0.4890 (2.0450) This is a significant shift in momentum from mid last week’s action around 0.4800 (2.0820) and shows a trend change. UK Retail Sales came in above expectations of 1.5% at 3.4% after -3.3% prior. This boosted the Pound only briefly. On the chart the fib 50% retracement from the low at 0.4780 (2.0910) and the high at 0.5000 (2.0000) has been breached at 0.4880 (2.0500) signalling further upside could be instore for the kiwi.

Current Level: 0.4872
Resistance: 0.4900
Support: 0.4815
Last Weeks Range: 0.4804- 0.4873

A light calendar week in the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) cross has seen the pair stretch out Monday continuing last week’s move higher through 0.9400 (1.0640), posting 0.9415 (1.0620) this morning. RBNZ rate cut predictions seem to be a hot talking point with analysts uncertain of upcoming timing, we have seen reports range from June to November. The RBA minutes highlighted Governor Bullock is undecided on whether the RBA will hike or cut at the next policy meeting. NZ Retail Sales Friday could print worse than expected putting pressure on the kiwi.

Current Level: 1.0632
Resistance: 1.0800
Support: 1.0580
Last Weeks Range: 1.0586- 1.0701

A light calendar week in the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) cross has seen the pair stretch out Monday continuing last week’s move higher through 0.9400 (1.0640), posting 0.9415 (1.0620) this morning. RBNZ rate cut predictions seem to be a hot talking point with analysts uncertain of upcoming timing, we have seen reports range from June to November. The RBA minutes highlighted Governor Bullock is undecided on whether the RBA will hike or cut at the next policy meeting. NZ Retail Sales Friday could print worse than expected putting pressure on the kiwi.

Current Level: 0.9398
Resistance: 0.9450
Support: 0.9260
Last Weeks Range: 0.9344- 0.9446

Bank holiday in the US made for a slow start to the week, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) taking advantage of thin liquidity pushing up towards 0.6150 this morning. Stiff resistance is seen at 0.6160, if we see a push through this area the kiwi could test the 0.6200 level. Fed rate predictions have been tough to pick with expectations now the Fed will cut 3 times in 2024- this is down from 7 in January. This has all come about based on a less dovish Fed, stronger jobs data and a hotter inflation read last week. NZ Retail Sales releases Friday for the December quarter.

Current Level: 0.6134
Support: 0.6050
Resistance: 0.6170
Last week’s range: 0.6048- 0.6151

The British Pound (GBP) rallied to 2.0810 (0.4805) levels midweek against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) after NZ inflation expectations came in at 2.5% weakening the NZD. UK inflation was unchanged at 4.0% after forecasting suggested this would come in higher at 4.1%. This is welcome news for the Bank of England. It’s well within their 2.0% forecast over the coming months. This should give way to cuts on the horizon. Energy prices have been a large contributor and will make the BoE much more comfortable to cut perhaps in June. The release sank the Pound reversing all the way back to 0.4870 (2.0530) this morning.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4847 GBPNZD 2.0631

The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4804- 0.4873 GBPNZD 2.0519- 2.0816