EUR

The Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) remains in its 4-week range, pivoting around mid-0.6060 (1.65’s) for the most part. The Euro got a boost from ECB’s Holzmann when he said there was a chance the central bank would cut rates in 2024 but slipped lower Friday and again off Monday’s open to 0.6070 (1.6470). The economic docket this week is thin with just Australian unemployment printing. The data is expected to reflect a rise in numbers from 3.9% to 4.0%. With a hawkish bias on inflation these job figures could impact later decisions on the timing of rate cuts. Direction over the week could support the Euro as the cross continues its bear channel lower.

Current Level: 0.6062
Resistance: 0.6105
Support: 0.6000
Last Weeks Range: 0.6020- 0.6077

Lower highs and lower lows remain the theme of 2024 in the Australian Dollar (AUD), British Pound (GBP) pair. Price action has been all Pound strength over recent weeks however the Aussie has managed a small recovery late last week. Currently trading at 0.5170 (1.9340) off lows at 0.5145 (1.9440) from Thursday. UK CPI y/y for January prints this week, expected to rise from 4.0% to 4.1% with uptick in energy costs based on a particularly cold month. Oil prices also rose in January along with geopolitical events that will most likely contribute. Australian unemployment releases Thursday and is predicted to rise from 3.9% to 4.0%. We expect the cross to retest the prior low at 0.5140 (1.9450) over the week.

Current Level: 1.9334
Resistance: 1.9450
Support: 1.9220
Last Weeks Range: 1.9250- 1.9452

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) cross hasn’t yet found its feet in 2024, we have seen two distinct swings since early January clocking 0.5580 (1.7920) from the yearly open at 0.5720 (1.7480) then reversing back to 0.5690 (1.7570) today. Comments late in the week by ANZ suggesting the RBNZ will hike 2 more times in 2024 sent the kiwi into a spin higher. NZ inflation expectations print later today and should show the 2-year forecast in around 2.7%. If the data reflects a figure around 3.0%, we expect further policy tightening from the RBNZ with possibly 2 further hikes this year.

Current Level: 1.7580
Resistance: 1.7900
Support: 1.7420
Last Weeks Range: 1.7509- 1.7809

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) cross hasn’t yet found its feet in 2024, we have seen two distinct swings since early January clocking 0.5580 (1.7920) from the yearly open at 0.5720 (1.7480) then reversing back to 0.5690 (1.7570) today. Comments late in the week by ANZ suggesting the RBNZ will hike 2 more times in 2024 sent the kiwi into a spin higher. NZ inflation expectations print later today and should show the 2-year forecast in around 2.7%. If the data reflects a figure around 3.0%, we expect further policy tightening from the RBNZ with possibly 2 further hikes this year.

Current Level: 0.5688
Support: 0.5585
Resistance: 0.5740
Last week’s range: 0.5615- 0.5711

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthened into the weekly close to 0.4870 (2.0530) against the British Pound (GBP) extending gains over the week. NZ Inflation expectations q/q prints today and should give us a look at the next 2 years forecasting. We should see a marked drop well below 2.8%. Midweek’s UK CPI y/y is our key data release with a rise to 4.1% from 4.0% expected which should keep the GBP bid. This could also unsettle the interest rate cut expectations for 2024. The GBP recovered off lows Monday back to 0.4855 (2.06) as it looks to retest 0.4840 (2.0650) areas.

Current Level: 2.0620
Resistance: 2.0900
Support: 2.0400
Last Weeks Range: 2.0501- 2.0847

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthened into the weekly close to 0.4870 (2.0530) against the British Pound (GBP) extending gains over the week. NZ Inflation expectations q/q prints today and should give us a look at the next 2 years forecasting. We should see a marked drop well below 2.8%. Midweek’s UK CPI y/y is our key data release with a rise to 4.1% from 4.0% expected which should keep the GBP bid. This could also unsettle the interest rate cut expectations for 2024. The GBP recovered off lows Monday back to 0.4855 (2.06) as it looks to retest 0.4840 (2.0650) areas.

Current Level: 0.4850
Resistance: 0.4900
Support: 0.4785
Last Weeks Range: 0.4796- 0.4877

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended through to a fresh yearly high of 0.9445 (1.0585) late Friday against the Australian Dollar (AUD) after reports from the ANZ that more rate hikes were on the way had investors in a mood to buy up NZD. Monday’s open reflected a reversal of fortunes, the kiwi giving back gains as price sank back to 0.9385 (1.0655) the December high. Today’s NZ Inflation Expectations and Thursday’s Aussie jobs data could throw up surprises, we expect the NZD to stay in charge.

Current Level: 1.0652
Resistance: 1.0700
Support: 1.0590
Last Weeks Range: 1.0584- 1.0737

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended through to a fresh yearly high of 0.9445 (1.0585) late Friday against the Australian Dollar (AUD) after reports from the ANZ that more rate hikes were on the way had investors in a mood to buy up NZD. Monday’s open reflected a reversal of fortunes, the kiwi giving back gains as price sank back to 0.9385 (1.0655) the December high. Today’s NZ Inflation Expectations and Thursday’s Aussie jobs data could throw up surprises, we expect the NZD to stay in charge.

Current Level: 0.9384
Resistance: 0.9440
Support: 0.9345
Last Weeks Range: 0.9313- 0.9448

It’s been a quiet start to the week in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), US Dollar (USD) cross with markets tentative ahead of US CPI y/y data publishing tonight. Expectations are for a fall from 3.4% to 2.9% which ultimately may force the hand of the Fed to cut rates sooner. The recent shift from the RBNZ on rate cut forecasts will have an impact in today’s NZ Inflation Expectations release. We should get a drop in the 2-year, 5-year and 10-year forecasts which could impact on future cut predictions and the timing of another hike or two. Certainly, investors are positioning for this with the kiwi outperforming last week. Governor Orr speaks Friday- “Monetary Policy Remit and 2% Inflation” which could be interesting. Support at 0.6080 should also ensure the kiwi has a positive week.

Current Level: 0.6128
Support: 0.6080
Resistance: 0.6220
Last week’s range: 0.6037- 0.6157

US Non-Farm Payroll sent the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reeling Friday, dropping from 0.6150 levels against the US Dollar (USD) to 0.6060 where the cross closed the week. Figures showed an improvement in jobs added in December of 216,000 with most industry sectors adding jobs, the print a lot better than the 173,000 expected. Early in the week the kiwi posted a new 2024 low of 0.6035 before recovering off NZ Job’s data into Friday. NZ unemployment clicked higher from 3.9% in the third quarter to 4.0% after a forecast of 4.3% was expected, confirming a slowdown in the NZ economy is playing out. This sparked a flurry of NZD buying, the kiwi pushing back to 0.6125. Next week’s economic docket is sizable with US CPI and NZ inflation expectations due. Traffic around 0.6000 looks safe for now.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6093

The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6037- 0.6123