EUR

The cost of living in Australia is poised today to show a 3-year low when inflation drops from 3.8% to around 2.9%. This would be the lowest since March 2021 and drop into the RBA’s target zone of between 2-3%. However, anyone expecting the RBA to drop their cash rate from 4.35% may still need to wait a while. Disappointment towards China’s latest stimulus measures is also weighing on the AUD this week with prices spiking to 0.9100 (1.0990) early morning. This being said- this upside in the kiwi should not be ignored with the RBNZ expected to cut half a percent later in November.

Current Level: 1.0981
Resistance: 1.1080
Support: 1.0950
Last Weeks Range: 1.1018 – 1.1065

The cost of living in Australia is poised today to show a 3-year low when inflation drops from 3.8% to around 2.9%. This would be the lowest since March 2021 and drop into the RBA’s target zone of between 2-3%. However, anyone expecting the RBA to drop their cash rate from 4.35% may still need to wait a while. Disappointment towards China’s latest stimulus measures is also weighing on the AUD this week with prices spiking to 0.9100 (1.0990) early morning. This being said- this upside in the kiwi should not be ignored with the RBNZ expected to cut half a percent later in November.

Current Level: 0.9104
Resistance: 0.9130
Support: 0.9025
Last Weeks Range: 0.9037 – 0.9076

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has continued to slide lower against the US Dollar (USD) starting the week around 0.5980 and dropping lower off the open to post 0.5960 as we head into Tuesday trading. Punters have been buying the big dollar on mass of late with consideration of uncertainty around what could eventuate in next week’s presidential elections. Also, the with the news that the Fed may peg back cuts if this week’s Non-Farm Payroll release comes in hot is also pushing the USD higher. The kiwi has dropped in value for the 5th straight week and now rapidly approaches long term support at 0.5850. With the RBNZ also expected to cut interest rates by 50-75 points at their next meeting in November it’s hard to see much upside in the pipeline. All those buyers of USD should consider anything around current levels.

Current Level: 0.5971
Support: 0.5870
Resistance: 0.6050
Last week’s range: 0.5972- 0.6083

The EUR has been directionally controlled by the movements of the US Dollar, as have most other currencies. The rise in Bond Yields has underpinned the USD and pushed the EUR back below 1.0800. The cross-rate has traded around 0.6100 and this is likely to improve unless the RBA change monetary policy. Interest rates differentials are making the AUD much more attractive on the cross with the EUR.

Current Level: 1.6310
Resistance: 1.6500
Support: 1.6000
Last Weeks Range: 1.6138- 1.6318

The EUR has been directionally controlled by the movements of the US Dollar, as have most other currencies. The rise in Bond Yields has underpinned the USD and pushed the EUR back below 1.0800. The cross-rate has traded around 0.6100 and this is likely to improve unless the RBA change monetary policy. Interest rates differentials are making the AUD much more attractive on the cross with the EUR.

Current Level: 0.6166
Resistance: 0.6250
Support: 0.6110
Last Weeks Range: 0.6115- 0.6207

The UK economy has been emerging from the recessionary economic conditions, under the guidance of the new Government, but things may be about to change. The UK Budget is next week and the rumours are that there will be tax hikes and budget cuts. The latest is a rumour of expanded deficits/debt, which can only mean that budget cuts will be more a re-prioritisation of spending, rather than cuts. The cross rate is likely to trade around current levels of 0.5100, save some major changes to UK Budget direction or RBA monetary policy.

Current Level: 1.9551
Resistance: 2.0000
Support: 1.9000
Last Weeks Range: 1.9357- 1.9555

The ECB and RBNZ have currently both embarked on an interest rate cutting cycle. They are moving at different velocity, but began from different origins. The ECB raised rates to lower levels and without the enthusiasm of the RBNZ, but are not equally as dovish on monetary policy. High interest rates and the cost of energy have driven their respective economies into recession, which has killed inflation. Therefore, as they operate in tandem, we can expect minimum variation to the cross-rate. The rate is trading around 0.5600.

Current Level: 1.8017
Resistance: 1.8500
Support: 1.7500
Last Weeks Range: 1.7833 – 1.8020

The ECB and RBNZ have currently both embarked on an interest rate cutting cycle. They are moving at different velocity, but began from different origins. The ECB raised rates to lower levels and without the enthusiasm of the RBNZ, but are not equally as dovish on monetary policy. High interest rates and the cost of energy have driven their respective economies into recession, which has killed inflation. Therefore, as they operate in tandem, we can expect minimum variation to the cross-rate. The rate is trading around 0.5600.

Current Level: 0.5530
Support: 0.5500
Resistance: 0.5700
Last week’s range: 0.5520- 0.5550

The GBP has suffered at the hands of the US Dollar, as has the KIWI. The improving economic situation in the UK, has driven recent support for the GBP, but the resurgent US Dollar has put paid to the recovery. The upcoming UK Budget may have a huge directional impact on the long-term direction of the currency, as rumours harden regarding tax increases and ‘budget’ deficit increases. Expect the NZD cross rate to trade around current levels.

Current Level: 2.1580
Resistance: 2.2200
Support: 2.1600
Last Weeks Range: 2.1600- 2.1730

The GBP has suffered at the hands of the US Dollar, as has the KIWI. The improving economic situation in the UK, has driven recent support for the GBP, but the resurgent US Dollar has put paid to the recovery. The upcoming UK Budget may have a huge directional impact on the long-term direction of the currency, as rumours harden regarding tax increases and ‘budget’ deficit increases. Expect the NZD cross rate to trade around current levels.

Current Level: 0.4625
Resistance: 0.4500
Support: 0.4600
Last Weeks Range: 0.4615- 0.4645