EUR

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) ticked higher over the week from 0.9050 (1.1050) to reach 0.9120 (1.0965) midweek before the kiwi gave back gains into Friday to 0.9075 (1.1020). Australian CPI y/y came in at 2.8% dropping a whopping 1% from 3.8%, the lowest reading since Q1 2021 with declines mainly in electricity and fuel prices. Aussie Retail Sales came in light at 0.1% compared to 0.3% dropping the AUD marginally. Next week’s RBA cash rate should bring a “hold” at 4.35% and not really create any fanfare. The release could we be overshadowed by Melbourne Cup and US Presidential Elections. One would expect if anything, the AUD could retest 0.9010 (1.1100) over the coming days.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9081 AUDNZD 1.1009

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9046- 0.9122 AUDNZD 1.0962- 1.1054

Hawkish comments from the ECB have buoyed the Euro (EUR) higher Monday against the Australian Dollar (AUD) pushing to 1.6500 (0.6060) a fresh 7 week high in the cross as it extends off last week’s 1.6140 (0.6200). ECB’s Wunsch said he had no urgency to cut rates, while a 50-point cut at the December meeting looks the ticket pending incoming data.

Current Level: 1.6501
Resistance: 1.6620
Support: 1.6400
Last Weeks Range: 1.6137- 1.6310

Hawkish comments from the ECB have buoyed the Euro (EUR) higher Monday against the Australian Dollar (AUD) pushing to 1.6500 (0.6060) a fresh 7 week high in the cross as it extends off last week’s 1.6140 (0.6200). ECB’s Wunsch said he had no urgency to cut rates, while a 50-point cut at the December meeting looks the ticket pending incoming data.

Current Level: 0.6060
Resistance: 0.6100
Support: 0.6020
Last Weeks Range: 0.6131- 0.6196

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is setting up for the lowest weekly close against the British Pound (GBP) since August 2023 with price continuing to slip to 0.5040 (1.9840). Less than impressive UK Manufacturing and a slide in the Lloyds business barometer haven’t had much impact with overpowering sentiment towards risk off, a lot of this stemming from the upcoming US elections. Today’s Aussie CPI y/y should highlight drops in many consumer products with expectations the figure should fall to 2.9% from June quarters 3.8%. The Aussie may continue to weaken towards next week’s RBA.

Current Level: 1.9857
Resistance: 2.0000
Support: 1.9600
Last Weeks Range: 1.9358- 1.9640

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended its run lower Monday off 0.5540 (1.8060) against the Euro (EUR) reaching 0.5515 (1.8130) this morning, an 11-week low. We have no tier 1 data publishing this week which means global macro themes will continue to dictate moves. On the chart we see support around current levels, any action below 0.5512 (1.8140) may signal further drops in the cross.

Current Level: 1.8122
Resistance: 1.8200
Support: 1.7850
Last Weeks Range: 1.7833 – 1.8071

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended its run lower Monday off 0.5540 (1.8060) against the Euro (EUR) reaching 0.5515 (1.8130) this morning, an 11-week low. We have no tier 1 data publishing this week which means global macro themes will continue to dictate moves. On the chart we see support around current levels, any action below 0.5512 (1.8140) may signal further drops in the cross.

Current Level: 0.5518
Support: 0.5500
Resistance: 0.5600
Last week’s range: 0.5533- 0.5607

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has extended declines into Tuesday sessions falling from 0.4615 (2.1680) to 0.4590 (2.1800). The lowest weekly close since Brexit in June 2016 was 0.4565 (2.1900) in the cross, we expect this level to come into play over the short term as we head into next week’s Bank of England (BoE) policy announcement when we expect interest rates to cut from 5.00% to 4.75%.

Current Level: 2.1795
Resistance: 2.190
Support: 2.1500
Last Weeks Range: 2.1378- 2.1694

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has extended declines into Tuesday sessions falling from 0.4615 (2.1680) to 0.4590 (2.1800). The lowest weekly close since Brexit in June 2016 was 0.4565 (2.1900) in the cross, we expect this level to come into play over the short term as we head into next week’s Bank of England (BoE) policy announcement when we expect interest rates to cut from 5.00% to 4.75%.

Current Level: 0.4588
Resistance: 0.4650
Support: 0.4565
Last Weeks Range: 0.4609- 0.4677

The cost of living in Australia is poised today to show a 3-year low when inflation drops from 3.8% to around 2.9%. This would be the lowest since March 2021 and drop into the RBA’s target zone of between 2-3%. However, anyone expecting the RBA to drop their cash rate from 4.35% may still need to wait a while. Disappointment towards China’s latest stimulus measures is also weighing on the AUD this week with prices spiking to 0.9100 (1.0990) early morning. This being said- this upside in the kiwi should not be ignored with the RBNZ expected to cut half a percent later in November.

Current Level: 1.0981
Resistance: 1.1080
Support: 1.0950
Last Weeks Range: 1.1018 – 1.1065

The cost of living in Australia is poised today to show a 3-year low when inflation drops from 3.8% to around 2.9%. This would be the lowest since March 2021 and drop into the RBA’s target zone of between 2-3%. However, anyone expecting the RBA to drop their cash rate from 4.35% may still need to wait a while. Disappointment towards China’s latest stimulus measures is also weighing on the AUD this week with prices spiking to 0.9100 (1.0990) early morning. This being said- this upside in the kiwi should not be ignored with the RBNZ expected to cut half a percent later in November.

Current Level: 0.9104
Resistance: 0.9130
Support: 0.9025
Last Weeks Range: 0.9037 – 0.9076