EUR

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) consolidated around 0.5900 early in the week against the US Dollar (USD) after extending moves lower on the strength of the greenback. A little profit taking from the NZD shorts came into play. NZ consumer prices rose less than expected in the first 3 months of the year to March. Year on year inflation came off 4.7% dipping to 4.0% after expectation of a 4.3% read. This makes it the lowest CPI since June 2021. The big dollar is still very well supported with the geopolitical uncertainty in the air. Fed’s Powell has signalled a delay to rate cuts due to stubborn inflation saying they will hold “as long as needed” with the recent data not ideal. We expect prices in the cross to drift back to the low at 0.5860 over the next few days.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.5896

The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5858- 0.5952

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has drifted lower over the week against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) the second week straight coming from 1.0920 (0.9160) to 1.0870 (0.9200) into Friday. CPI y/y for the March quarter came in at 4.0%, down from 4.7% with the largest contributor being Housing costs – rental costs and utilities. The RBNZ reiterated they still have a way to go to achieve their target 1-3% band. Expectations of a return below 3% should happen in the third quarter this year with rate cuts possibly not until the August/October meetings. The kiwi still has a way to go to halt the bear run of late, a breakout through 0.9260 (1.0800) would certainly shift bias back towards the NZD.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9194 AUDNZD 1.0868

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9158- 0.9208 AUDNZD 1.0859- 1.0919

Same same but different. The Australian Dollar (AUD) hit hard on the geopolitical risk averse tone has fallen to 0.6065 (1.6490) against the Euro (EUR) this morning coming off 0.6110 (1.6370) late last week. We expected prices on the Monday open to be much worse but with a delayed retaliation from Israel of an attack on Iran and President Biden saying the US wouldn’t support such a move the heat came off late Monday. Risks still exist with Israel still considering how and when to respond. Lagarde speaks Thursday morning before Australian Jobs numbers.

Current Level: 1.6498
Resistance: 1.6630
Support: 1.6370
Last Weeks Range: 1.6365- 1.6517

Same same but different. The Australian Dollar (AUD) hit hard on the geopolitical risk averse tone has fallen to 0.6065 (1.6490) against the Euro (EUR) this morning coming off 0.6110 (1.6370) late last week. We expected prices on the Monday open to be much worse but with a delayed retaliation from Israel of an attack on Iran and President Biden saying the US wouldn’t support such a move the heat came off late Monday. Risks still exist with Israel still considering how and when to respond. Lagarde speaks Thursday morning before Australian Jobs numbers.

Current Level: 0.6061
Resistance: 0.6110
Support: 0.6015
Last Weeks Range: 0.6055- 0.6110

The British Pound (GBP) extended gains on the Australian Dollar (AUD) Monday as markets focus on geopolitical risk uncertainty. The AUD/GBP reached 0.5175 (1.9325) as markets turned risk averse. To be fair things could have been a whole lot worse in the cross, the Aussie having found a little demand this morning as it pushed back to around 0.5185 (1.9290). On the docket this week we have UK CPI Wednesday predicted to come in at 3.1% y/y for March compared to 3.4% in February followed by Australian Jobs data Thursday with unemployment expected to tick higher off 3.7%.

Current Level: 1.9323
Resistance: 1.9530
Support: 1.9100
Last Weeks Range: 1.9094- 1.9288

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has failed to hold prices around 0.5600 (1.7850) against the Euro (EUR) at the start of the week falling back to 0.5555 (1.8000) in stiff risk off markets. Geopolitical uncertainty following the missile/drone strikes on Iran by Israel certainly could have been a lot worse with only a moderate sell-off in the kiwi. The only data this week of note in the cross is NZ CPI q/q with predictions of a 0.6% rise in prices in the March quarter. This should see the annual number dip to around 4.3% from 4.7% and subsequently put more downward pressure on the NZD.

Current Level: 1.8005
Resistance: 2.1170
Support: 2.0910
Last Weeks Range: 2.0855 – 2.1033

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has failed to hold prices around 0.5600 (1.7850) against the Euro (EUR) at the start of the week falling back to 0.5555 (1.8000) in stiff risk off markets. Geopolitical uncertainty following the missile/drone strikes on Iran by Israel certainly could have been a lot worse with only a moderate sell-off in the kiwi. The only data this week of note in the cross is NZ CPI q/q with predictions of a 0.6% rise in prices in the March quarter. This should see the annual number dip to around 4.3% from 4.7% and subsequently put more downward pressure on the NZD.

Current Level: 0.5554
Support: 0.4725
Resistance: 0.54780
Last week’s range: 0.4754- 0.4795

Risk sentiment pushed the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) lower Monday to 0.4740 (2.1090) against the British Pound (GBP), the latest dip could have been a whole lot worse with the escalation in the Middle East not as bad as first feared. Both NZ and UK inflation releases tomorrow with expectation of a tick lower in both the UK figure and NZ prints. We expect a retest of the support zone around 0.4725 (2.1170) the September 2023 low.

Current Level: 2.1088
Resistance: 2.1170
Support: 2.0900
Last Weeks Range: 2.0856- 2.1033

Risk sentiment pushed the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) lower Monday to 0.4740 (2.1090) against the British Pound (GBP), the latest dip could have been a whole lot worse with the escalation in the Middle East not as bad as first feared. Both NZ and UK inflation releases tomorrow with expectation of a tick lower in both the UK figure and NZ prints. We expect a retest of the support zone around 0.4725 (2.1170) the September 2023 low.

Current Level: 0.4742
Resistance: 0.4785
Support: 0.4725
Last Weeks Range: 0.4754- 0.4795

The Australian Dollar (AUD) bounced back against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) at the start of the week partially reversing last week’s gains to 1.0910 (0.9165). The Aussie continuing its 8-week run against the unfavourable NZD. The next stop is the prior low at 0.9130 (1.0950) however this week’s key data could derail the AUD bulls. NZ inflation Wednesday should reflect a rise to the March quarter of 0.8%, year on year, this should represent a fall from 4.7% to approximately 4.3%. With the rise in the March quarter the RBNZ could see this as “forecasts lie to the upside” thus supporting the NZD. Aussie employment figures Thursday could surprise higher.

Current Level: 1.0909
Resistance: 1.0950
Support: 1.0860
Last Weeks Range: 1.0873- 1.0950