EUR

The AUD has tumbled against the GBP for the whole of 2024, falling from highs of 0.5350 in January, to trade around today’s 0.5125. Interest rate differentials drive this price action and the Bank of England appear committed to their tight monetary policy. The UK is in a technical economic recession, but is showing signs of a recovery, which has given the Bank of England some backbone to hold rates higher. The cross-rate is likely to remain soft.

Current Level: 1.9531
Resistance: 1.9607
Support: 1.9230
Last Weeks Range: 1.9379- 1.9493

The NZD/EUR cross rate opened 2024 trading around 0.5750, but has been in steady decline since. This week the cross-rate traded all the way down to 0.5600, due to the bearish sentiment of the RBNZ, and the possible interest rate cuts predicted. The ECB will announce their latest decision this coming Thursday, where they are expected to leave rates unchanged, but maintain the ‘higher for longer’ stance. The ECB priority is fighting inflation and thus remains ‘hawkish’, although they are coming under immense pressure to cut rates by Q3. The European economies are suffering severe recessionary economic conditions and are calling out for some relief, in the form of interest rate cuts, from the ECB.

Current Level: 1.7841
Resistance: 1.8018
Support: 1.7391
Last Weeks Range: 1.7497- 1.7793

The NZD/EUR cross rate opened 2024 trading around 0.5750, but has been in steady decline since. This week the cross-rate traded all the way down to 0.5600, due to the bearish sentiment of the RBNZ, and the possible interest rate cuts predicted. The ECB will announce their latest decision this coming Thursday, where they are expected to leave rates unchanged, but maintain the ‘higher for longer’ stance. The ECB priority is fighting inflation and thus remains ‘hawkish’, although they are coming under immense pressure to cut rates by Q3. The European economies are suffering severe recessionary economic conditions and are calling out for some relief, in the form of interest rate cuts, from the ECB.

Current Level: 0.5605
Support: 0.5550
Resistance: 0.5750
Last week’s range: 0.5620- 0.5715

The NZDGBP cross rate has been in steep decline all of 2024. The year kicked off with the NZD buying close to 50 Pence/NZ Dollar. It has been in decline ever since, falling back to 0.4800. This is almost entirely due to the weakness of the KIWI, as the Bank of England has been steadfast in their battle on inflation. The weakening cross rate is likely to continue into
the near future.

Current Level: 2.0863
Resistance: 2.1052
Support: 2.0408
Last Weeks Range: 2.0491- 2.0703

The NZDGBP cross rate has been in steep decline all of 2024. The year kicked off with the NZD buying close to 50 Pence/NZ Dollar. It has been in decline ever since, falling back to 0.4800. This is almost entirely due to the weakness of the KIWI, as the Bank of England has been steadfast in their battle on inflation. The weakening cross rate is likely to continue into the near future.

Current Level: 0.4793
Resistance: 0.4900
Support: 0.4750
Last Weeks Range: 0.4830- 0.4880

The cross rate had reached highs of 0.9450, in February, leading into the latest RBNZ Rate Decision. The NZ Central Bank’s ‘dovish’ stance has allowed the cross rate to drift off recent highs, to trade back to 0.9350. The cross rate was softer due to the RBNZ dovish sentiment, but markets will be watching the Australian GDP growth number for direction, set to be released this Wednesday.

Current Level: 1.0670
Resistance: 1.0800
Support: 1.0580
Last Weeks Range: 1.0590- 1.066

The cross rate had reached highs of 0.9450, in February, leading into the latest RBNZ Rate Decision. The NZ Central Bank’s ‘dovish’ stance has allowed the cross rate to drift off recent highs, to trade back to 0.9350. The cross rate was softer due to the RBNZ dovish sentiment, but markets will be watching the Australian GDP growth number for direction, set to be released this Wednesday.

Current Level: 0.9355
Resistance: 0.9450
Support: 0.9300
Last Weeks Range: 0.9330- 0.9440

The NZ Dollar continues to trade around the fallout from the last ‘dovish’ RBNZ Interest Rate Decision. The RBNZ left rates unchanged and held the narrative ‘higher for longer’, but deductions are that the probable next rate move from the Central Bank, will be to cut rates. The currency has been testing 2024 lows, of 0.6050 recently, and may go lower if the
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell continues the hawkish narrative in his appearance before Congress later in the week.

Current Level: 0.6085
Support: 0.6050
Resistance: 0.6150
Last week’s range: 0.6060- 0.6115

The AUD/EUR has been weakening all of 2024, from highs in January of just below 0.6200, to testing of the ‘Big Figure’ of 0.6000, to the downside. The inherent weakness of the commodity currency has driven the fall, while the ECB’s reticence to alter tight monetary policy, is a direct result of the fear of resurgent inflation. Germany is now in recession and many other member states are in the same boat, which has aided in the war on inflation, but at some time, the economic pain must be addressed with pressure to lower interest rates. The question is whether the RBA will blink before the ECB?

The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR .6018 EURAUD 1.6616

The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR .5993 – .6066 EURAUD 1.6484 – 1.6684

The Bank of England has been very hawkish in their approach to interest rates, holding them at high levels, despite precipitous falls in their inflation levels. This has ensured the strength of the GBP against the NZD, which has weakened from highs of just below 0.5000, to be trading around 0.4800 v the NZD. This downside bias is likely to continue into the near future, as the GBP remains supported by their Central Bank policy.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP .4822 GBPNZD 2.0738

The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP .4802 – .4898 GBPNZD 2.0416 – 2.0821