EUR

The Euro (EUR) climbed to 1.6495 (0.6062) overnight against the Australian Dollar (AUD) as risk mood deteriorated with the Fed meeting looming. The cross has bounced off fib 61.8% support and sits around the 50% fib zone of the high at 0.6135 (1.6300) and the low of 0.6020 (1.6615) suggesting subsequent moves could be towards 0.6085 (1.6430) today. With no further tier one data on the docket in the cross this week moves should be “risk” corresponding.

Current Level: 0.6072
Resistance: 0.6190
Support: 0.6025
Last Weeks Range: 0.6020- 0.6117

A risk off Tuesday has seen the Australian Dollar (AUD) drop to 0.5185 (1.9290) against the British Pound (GBP) early this morning after starting the week out at 0.5235 (1.9100). Australian Retail Sales for the March quarter came in weaker than expected at -0.4% compared to 0.2% bringing early sellers of AUD to the table. US Stocks drifted lower, down over 1.5% in overnight trading as punters started to react to tomorrow’s FOMC rate decision. On the chart the GBP could run into resistance to the downside at the Fib level at 0.5170 (1.9350)

Current Level: 1.9297
Resistance: 1.9530
Support: 1.9100
Last Weeks Range: 1.9085- 1.9280

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has closed out the day in negative territory against the Euro (EUR) dropping through daily support at 0.5525 (1.8095) to reach 0.5520 (1.8115) a fresh yearly low. Risk sentiment hasn’t favoured the kiwi with investors selling risk products in line with equity drops overnight. Data out in the US has been less than impressive causing spooked markets leading into tomorrow’s Fed meeting. ECB’s Knot was also out cautioning against cutting rates to soon saying it was too early to comment past June.

Current Level: 1.8135
Resistance: 1.8200
Support: 1.7870
Last Weeks Range: 1.7956 – 1.8096

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) bounced back off Monday’s open at 0.5530 (1.8090) to reach 0.5560 (1.7980) into Tuesday trading. 0.5560 (1.7980) is the 50% fib retracement points of recent high and lows and suggests the kiwi may have been overbought to current levels. We favour a retest of the 0.5540 (1.8050) this week data dependant. Eurozone Services and Manufacturing print tonight expected to reflect modest rises in March.

Current Level: 0.5514
Support: 0.5495
Resistance: 0.5595
Last week’s range: 0.5526- 0.5569

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has dropped to a yearly low of 0.4713 (2.1215) this morning against the English Pound (GBP) breaking through late March daily support at 0.4730 (2.1130). Today’s NZ employment data has shown a further softening to the job’s market in the first quarter of 2024 with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% from 4.0%, this in line with the RBNZ’s forecast and shouldn’t offer much divergence from forward thinking monetary policy. The cross could be a tad oversold and could reverse somewhat higher over the day.

Current Level: 2.1235
Resistance: 2.1500
Support: 2.0860
Last Weeks Range: 2.0834- 2.1055

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has dropped to a yearly low of 0.4713 (2.1215) this morning against the English Pound (GBP) breaking through late March daily support at 0.4730 (2.1130). Today’s NZ employment data has shown a further softening to the job’s market in the first quarter of 2024 with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% from 4.0%, this in line with the RBNZ’s forecast and shouldn’t offer much divergence from forward thinking monetary policy. The cross could be a tad oversold and could reverse somewhat higher over the day.

Current Level: 0.4709
Resistance: 0.4795
Support: 0.4650
Last Weeks Range: 0.4749- 0.4799

Australian Retail Sales yesterday came in poor at -0.4% compared to 0.2% predicted. Although the number wasn’t flash it only temporarily halted the Aussie run higher. Prices reached 1.1000 (0.9090) early Monday before falling back to 1.0960 (0.9125) over the release. This morning’s 1.0995 (0.9095) is a fresh yearly low and indicates a push back towards the prior 1.1100 (0.9080) area may be targeted. NZ unemployment ticked higher to 4.3% this morning in the March quarter was bang on expectations however the figure has been largely balanced out by high migration numbers.

Current Level: 1.0999
Resistance: 1.1020
Support: 1.0870
Last Weeks Range: 1.0867- 1.0997

Australian Retail Sales yesterday came in poor at -0.4% compared to 0.2% predicted. Although the number wasn’t flash it only temporarily halted the Aussie run higher. Prices reached 1.1000 (0.9090) early Monday before falling back to 1.0960 (0.9125) over the release. This morning’s 1.0995 (0.9095) is a fresh yearly low and indicates a push back towards the prior 1.1100 (0.9080) area may be targeted. NZ unemployment ticked higher to 4.3% this morning in the March quarter was bang on expectations however the figure has been largely balanced out by high migration numbers.

Current Level: 0.9083
Resistance: 0.9200
Support: 0.9075
Last Weeks Range: 0.9093- 0.9202

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) started the week in a positive mood extending gains made last week against the US Dollar (USD) to 0.5980. This wasn’t to last, equity markets started to fall into the red and US consumer confidence showed a pessimistic look, the third month straight. The cross dropped sharply overnight to 0.5890 – over half a cent. To make things worse Tuesday’s local ANZ business outlook gauge also fell to its lowest level since September 2023. NZ jobs numbers just released saw a rise to the unemployment rate to 4.3% from 4.0% in the December quarter. Coming up Thursday morning we have the Fed meeting with no change from 5.5% expected and later US Non-Farm Payroll. With prices down under 0.5900 we are not surprised; further downside bias is predicted.

Current Level: 0.5881
Support: 0.5850
Resistance: 0.6000
Last week’s range: 0.5881- 0.5968

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has bounced back from 0.5995 (1.6680) losses over the last couple of trading against the Euro (EUR) reaching 0.6055 (1.6515) this morning. Risk sentiment came roaring back towards the close of the week and into Monday after conflicts between Iran and Israel Friday were downplayed. We see resistance at 0.6060 (1.6500) levels the fib 50% retracement of last week’s move. Aussie inflation report for the March quarter prints tomorrow- 0.8% forecast vs 0.6% previous, more importantly this should shift the y/y number from 4.1% to 3.4% and may put pressure on the AUD. A possible retest to 0.6025 (1.6600) levels has a chance.

Current Level: 1.6504
Resistance: 1.6600
Support: 1.6500
Last Weeks Range: 1.6412- 1.6680