EUR

The Australian Dollar (AUD) 2 week run higher against the Euro (EUR) seems to have come to an end bouncing out of the bull trend from the low at 0.6100 (1.6400) to 0.6200 (1.6130) into Tuesday. Chart patterns are suggesting the recent run up has been exhausted with signals suggesting a move higher by the AUD is most likely if the cross can stay above 0.6185 (1.6170). Aussie CPI y/y prints tomorrow with a result expected to show a rise to recent inflation to 3.8% y/y from 3.6% possibly giving further upside bias to the AUD.

Current Level: 1.6136
Resistance: 1.6200
Support: 1.6020
Last Weeks Range: 1.6025- 1.6262

The Australian Dollar (AUD) 2 week run higher against the Euro (EUR) seems to have come to an end bouncing out of the bull trend from the low at 0.6100 (1.6400) to 0.6200 (1.6130) into Tuesday. Chart patterns are suggesting the recent run up has been exhausted with signals suggesting a move higher by the AUD is most likely if the cross can stay above 0.6185 (1.6170). Aussie CPI y/y prints tomorrow with a result expected to show a rise to recent inflation to 3.8% y/y from 3.6% possibly giving further upside bias to the AUD.

Current Level: 0.6197
Resistance: 0.6240
Support: 0.6170
Last Weeks Range: 0.6149- 0.6240

The Australian Dollar (AUD) retested the 5-week high at 0.5280 (1.8940) off the open against the British Pound (GBP) but has since surrendered giving back gains to 0.5245 (1.9070) this morning. The Pound initially coming under pressure from a dovish leaving Bank of England and softer UK PMI read. Risk off flow could see the Aussie get pushed lower this week, however Australian CPI could have the opposite effect. Markets are expecting May Inflation y/y to come in higher than the current 3.6% at 3.8%. This would be quite remarkable given the RBA are the only mainstream central bank still considering hikes.

Current Level: 1.9062
Resistance: 1.9230
Support: 1.8900
Last Weeks Range: 1.8955- 1.9236

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) traded back to the top of the recent range Monday to 0.4850 (2.0610) against the British Pound (GBP) before falling on risk flows Tuesday to 0.4830 (2.0710). The kiwi is still well above the moving average game line with bias to the downside. US Equities are trading at the bottom of the recent range with the Nasdaq down over 1% overnight also pulling on the NZD. Nuda on the calendar this week and a NZ holiday Friday should keep the cross reasonably unmoved.

Current Level: 2.0733
Resistance: 2.0900
Support: 2.0600
Last Weeks Range: 2.0610- 2.0798

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) traded back to the top of the recent range Monday to 0.4850 (2.0610) against the British Pound (GBP) before falling on risk flows Tuesday to 0.4830 (2.0710). The kiwi is still well above the moving average game line with bias to the downside. US Equities are trading at the bottom of the recent range with the Nasdaq down over 1% overnight also pulling on the NZD. Nuda on the calendar this week and a NZ holiday Friday should keep the cross reasonably unmoved.

Current Level: 0.4823
Resistance: 0.4855
Support: 0.4785
Last Weeks Range: 0.4808- 0.4852

US Equities have slumped causing fresh “risk off flows” of late- the Australian Dollar (AUD) faring better than the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) last week reaching 0.9180 (1.0890) and looking well supported into Tuesday trading. Australian Inflation prints tomorrow for May y/y with investors expecting a rise from 3.6% to 3.8% y/y. Currently however the cross sits at the 50% fib level of the recent long-term low at 0.9065 (1.1030) and high of 0.9330 (1.0720). If the AUD can breakout past this zone the next target would be 0.9130 (1.0950)

Current Level: 1.0869
Resistance: 1.1020
Support: 1.0720
Last Weeks Range: 1.0758 – 1.0890

US Equities have slumped causing fresh “risk off flows” of late- the Australian Dollar (AUD) faring better than the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) last week reaching 0.9180 (1.0890) and looking well supported into Tuesday trading. Australian Inflation prints tomorrow for May y/y with investors expecting a rise from 3.6% to 3.8% y/y. Currently however the cross sits at the 50% fib level of the recent long-term low at 0.9065 (1.1030) and high of 0.9330 (1.0720). If the AUD can breakout past this zone the next target would be 0.9130 (1.0950)

Current Level: 0.9195
Resistance: 0.9330
Support: 0.9075
Last Weeks Range: 0.9182-0.9295

Despite The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pushing off support at the weekly open from 0.6100 levels against the US Dollar (USD) the cross still remains in a bear trend. Retesting the 50 day Moving Average at 0.6140 last night the pair fell back into Tuesday to 0.6120 as I write. On the calendar this week is key final US GDP predicted to print at 1.4% q/q in line with forecasts. Matariki Day NZ Holiday Friday could see a slow finish to the week.

Current Level: 0.6118
Support: 0.6080
Resistance: 0.6215
Last week’s range: 0.6096- 0.6147

The Bank of England (BoE) left its key interest rate unchanged this morning at 5.25% and signalled they would start joining other central banks cutting interest rates later this year. The vote was 2-7 in favour of a “remain” while 2 members suggested a cut would have been more appropriate. The Pound lost value on the release falling from 0.4830 (2.0700) to 0.4845 (2.0640) but has since recovered to 0.4835 (2.0690) in morning trade. Overall, this week the pair has traded within recent ranges following a 4-week theme. Earlier UK inflation came in bang on expectations at 2.0% offering further excitement the BoE should start unwinding monetary policy in August or November. A push past resistance at 0.4855 (1.0600), the top of the 16-week move should see further upswing bias for the kiwi.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4832 GBPNZD 2.0695

The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4808- 0.4847 GBPNZD 2.0631- 2.0798

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has managed to avoid dropping below long-term support at 0.6080 this week against the US Dollar (USD) retesting this area earlier in the week trading into Friday around 0.6120. NZ GDP came in hot Thursday at a surprising 0.2% against expectations of 0.1%- staggering, given we expected a negative result. However, this data is first quarter ending March and incoming data since has not been rosy. If second quarter GDP comes in above 0.0% the only conclusion would be someone is “doctoring the logbooks”. US Building Permits were a miss this morning with data suggesting new residential construction has dived 5.5% in May. US GDP prints next week.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6117

The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6096- 0.6147