EUR

Lower highs followed by lower lows represents 2024 moves in the Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross to date. The trend last week supports further weakness in the Aussie after a bounce off 0.6080 (1.6450) multiple support line to current prices at 0.6055 (1.6515) as I write. A retest of last week’s low is the likely scenario, especially given the breakthrough the 50-day moving average. We have no significant data printing in the pair until NZ GDP on the 21st of March.

Current Level: 0.6049
Resistance: 0.6080
Support: 0.6025
Last Weeks Range: 0.5972- 0.6083

Big moves in the Australian Dollar (AUD), British Pound (GBP) saw swings from 0.5110 (1.9560) to 0.5190 (1.9270) last week post Aussie GDP release. UK construction came in hot but failed to boost the GBP. Also of note, Chinese import data came in above expectation, the Aussie reacting positively.UK GDP for January prints Wednesday with reports pointing to a rise of 0.2% up from December’s -0.1%. Growth overall has been rising since October with the jobless rate falling. A positive report would ease concerns of a sharp recession. We think a retest of 0.5185 (1.9280) is on the cards this week.

Current Level: 1.9394
Resistance: 1.9500
Support: 1.9290
Last Weeks Range: 1.9273- 1.9568

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) fell to 0.5600 (1.7870) late last week- nearly reaching the yearly low against the Euro (EUR) before recovering towards the close to 0.5640 (1.7730) levels. The ECB kept their interest rate at 4.5% Friday as widely expected for the 4th time in a row with ECB policy makers in favour of a June rate cut. Discussion of a second rate cut in July was also floated. Although inflation targets are broadly inline the ECB said they would need additional data to steer them in the right direction- wage pressures remain key.

Current Level: 1.7727
Resistance: 1.7820
Support: 1.7630
Last Weeks Range: 1.7623- 1.7862

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) fell to 0.5600 (1.7870) late last week- nearly reaching the yearly low against the Euro (EUR) before recovering towards the close to 0.5640 (1.7730) levels. The ECB kept their interest rate at 4.5% Friday as widely expected for the 4th time in a row with ECB policy makers in favour of a June rate cut. Discussion of a second rate cut in July was also floated. Although inflation targets are broadly inline the ECB said they would need additional data to steer them in the right direction- wage pressures remain key.

Current Level: 0.5641
Support: 0.5610
Resistance: 0.5670
Last week’s range: 0.5596- 0.5674

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) closed the week lower at 0.4805 (2.0800) against the British Pound (GBP) after making it through to 0.4840 (2.0660) earlier. Not a lot of late data wise has been going on in the pair with flows following broader based USD moves. The standout this week is monthly UK GDP for January. With the cross failing to push past 0.4785 (2.0900) last week we favour moves towards 0.4855 (2.0600) over the week.

Current Level: 2.0790
Resistance: 2.0915
Support: 2.0530
Last Weeks Range: 2.0662- 2.0912

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) closed the week lower at 0.4805 (2.0800) against the British Pound (GBP) after making it through to 0.4840 (2.0660) earlier. Not a lot of late data wise has been going on in the pair with flows following broader based USD moves. The standout this week is monthly UK GDP for January. With the cross failing to push past 0.4785 (2.0900) last week we favour moves towards 0.4855 (2.0600) over the week.

Current Level: 0.4810
Resistance: 0.4870
Support: 0.4780
Last Weeks Range: 0.4781- 0.4839

The weakness in the NZD/AUD rate continues, with the cross rate falling to 0.9270. This remains historically high, but has fallen considerably from early 2024 highs, of 0.9450. The cross rate this week will be largely determined by the RBA, in their latest meeting, to be held today, 19 th March. The RBA will almost certainly leave rates unchanged, but the narrative will be crucial. If the RBA remains ‘hawkish’, we could see some more downside, on the NZD cross-rate.

Current Level: 1.0725
Resistance: 1.0850
Support: 1.0650
Last Weeks Range: 1.0713- 1.0784

Prices in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross continues to be mainly AUD supportive from the high at 0.9460 (1.0570) a fortnight ago to 0.9330 (1.0720) today. We have a thin economic docket this week with no tier one data publishing. Markets look towards the following week when we have RBA cash announcement and NZ GDP q/q. Chinese Import data has certainly assisted the AUD of late along with predictions the RBNZ wont hike again in this cycle and rate cuts likely to start in the August meeting which have been also priced into recent moves.

Current Level: 0.9326
Resistance: 0.9380
Support: 0.9250
Last Weeks Range: 0.9305- 0.9384

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pushed up against the US Dollar (USD) into the close to 0.6170 after recovering from areas around 0.6060. The 8-week high at 0.6219 held Friday before falling back to 0.6160 Monday. US Non-Farm Payroll came in well above expectation Friday with 353,000 new jobs being added to the economy in January. This sank the greenback across the board with investors exciting the currency. Markets await Wednesday’s US CPI data release with predictions of no change from 3.1%. We expect prices in the pair to drift back towards the 0.6120 area.

Current Level: 0.6167
Support: 0.6150
Resistance: 0.6200
Last week’s range: 0.6067- 0.6215

The AUD/EUR has been weakening all of 2024, from highs in January of just below 0.6200, to testing of the ‘Big Figure’ of 0.6000, to the downside. The inherent weakness of the commodity currency has driven the fall, while the ECB’s reticence to alter tight monetary policy, is a direct result of the fear of resurgent inflation. Germany is now in recession and many other member states are in the same boat, which has aided in the war on inflation, but at some time, the economic pain must be addressed with pressure to lower interest rates. The question is whether the RBA will blink before the ECB?

Current Level: 0.6043
Resistance: 0.6070
Support: 0.5990
Last Weeks Range: 0.6000- 0.6040