EUR

For about a week now the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) cross has been pivoting around the 0.9000 (1.1100) zone in the wake of Mixed Aussie jobs data and falling NZ CPI. As we mentioned it’s becoming tough to get a read on the NZD/AUD and directions from here, certainly with the RBA considering hikes on August 6th we may see the cross trend much lower into the 89’s with pressure remaining to the downside. We see no tier one date on the economic docket this week suggesting we could see more of the same.

Current Level: 0.8999
Resistance: 0.9065
Support: 0.8970
Last Weeks Range: 0.8967 – 0.9047

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended declines Monday against the US Dollar (USD) falling to 0.5970 as the fallout from Biden’s presidential race exit hits risk. Equities ticked higher surprisingly bouncing back from a series of losses, the kiwi not going along for the ride on this occasion. It’s a slow week of data for the cross with only US advance GDP to decipher with expectations the USD might get a push higher if we see a rise from May’s 1.4%. Support on the chart is 0.5880, the low from early May.

Current Level: 0.5977
Support: 0.5880
Resistance: 0.6060
Last week’s range: 0.6005- 0.6109

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to underperform this week against the British Pound (GBP) falling briefly to 0.4655 (2.1490) Wednesday recovering slightly into Friday to 0.4670 (2.1415). UK CPI turned in sticky rising to 2.0% from 1.9% y/y in June, the Bank of England refraining from talk of cutting rates and will likely hesitate unwinding monetary policy with ongoing inflation pressures. We have already seen the Pound grow from 0.4810 (2.08) levels over the past fortnight, we predict a retest of 0.4630 (2.1585) the multi-year low.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4663 GBPNZD 2.1445

The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4652- 0.4718 GBPNZD 2.1193- 2.1493

Still no luck for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) this week as it came into Friday around the weekly open at 0.9020 (1.1090) against the Australian Dollar (AUD). At one point it dipped to a new yearly low at 0.8970 (1.1150). Australian Jobs data came in mixed with the number of employed rising 50k in June with official unemployment rising from 4.0% to 4.1%. With no clear trend to incoming data, it’s becoming harder to get a read on what the RBA may do next, certainly it’s becoming more likely the central bank will raise their interest rate at their 6th August meeting if incoming data doesn’t show a changing economy.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9010 AUDNZD 1.1090

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.8968- 0.9047 AUDNZD 1.1053- 1.1150

The Australian Dollar (AUD) clocked 0.6250 (1.6000) late last week against the Euro (EUR) a new yearly high before loosing steam Monday giving back gains to 0.6180 (1.6180). Setbacks in the Aussie should be fairly well supported with key support seen at 0.6170 (1.6215) close by. On the economic docket this week in the cross we have Australian Unemployment data with expectations the unemployment rate should tick higher from 4.0% to 4.1% lending further support of no more hikes to the RBA cash rate. Friday’s ECB cash rate will publish with no change to the 4.25% currently, we expect two further cuts this year from the ECB.

Current Level: 1.6196
Resistance: 1.6215
Support: 1.6000
Last Weeks Range: 1.6000- 1.6089

The Australian Dollar (AUD) clocked 0.6250 (1.6000) late last week against the Euro (EUR) a new yearly high before loosing steam Monday giving back gains to 0.6180 (1.6180). Setbacks in the Aussie should be fairly well supported with key support seen at 0.6170 (1.6215) close by. On the economic docket this week in the cross we have Australian Unemployment data with expectations the unemployment rate should tick higher from 4.0% to 4.1% lending further support of no more hikes to the RBA cash rate. Friday’s ECB cash rate will publish with no change to the 4.25% currently, we expect two further cuts this year from the ECB.

Current Level: 0.6174
Resistance: 0.6250
Support: 0.6165
Last Weeks Range: 0.6215- 0.6250

The British Pound (GBP) extended its run Monday off 1.9140 (0.5225) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) to reach 1.9270 (0.5190) this morning a 5-week high. The GBP however could run into selling pressures in the run up to tonight’s UK inflation release as punters unwind long Pound positions. Should Australian jobs numbers come in light tomorrow we could see further speculation by the RBA of a hike at their next meeting- chances are 25% at the moment with inflation not behaving. Heavy support seen at 0.5170 (1.9340) on the chart but we expect prices to reverse back towards the 0.5210 (1.9200) zone.

Current Level: 1.9278
Resistance: 1.9400
Support: 1.8940
Last Weeks Range: 1.8948- 1.9144

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) hasn’t had much luck in July overall, against the Euro (EUR) it has been hammered from around 0.5670 (1.7570) areas to 0.5540 (1.8060) this morning having started the week at 0.5610 (1.7820). NZ CPI initially sent the NZD lower this morning but has kicked back to 0.5570 (1.7950) surprisingly.  Fridays ECB cash rate announcement and statement will see the central bank leave rates unchanged at 4.25% with no further rhetoric surrounding the recent dovish monetary slant expected.

Current Level: 1.7973
Resistance: 1.8100
Support: 1.7420
Last Weeks Range: 1.7588 – 1.7884

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) hasn’t had much luck in July overall, against the Euro (EUR) it has been hammered from around 0.5670 (1.7570) areas to 0.5540 (1.8060) this morning having started the week at 0.5610 (1.7820). NZ CPI initially sent the NZD lower this morning but has kicked back to 0.5570 (1.7950) surprisingly.  Fridays ECB cash rate announcement and statement will see the central bank leave rates unchanged at 4.25% with no further rhetoric surrounding the recent dovish monetary slant expected.

Current Level: 0.5573
Support: 0.5525
Resistance: 0.5740
Last week’s range: 0.5591- 0.5685

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has been the worst performing main board currency over the past week evident in the NZD/GBP cross with the British Pound (GBP) improving off 2.1200 (0.4715) Monday to reach 2.1490 (0.4655) earlier today. NZ CPI for the second quarter ending June came in at 0.4% compared to 0.6% expected. Year on year dropped to 3.3% from 4.0%, all but confirming two rate cuts in 2024 by the RBNZ. We expect the NZD to remain under pressure into the weekly close.

Current Level: 2.1353
Resistance: 2.1570
Support: 2.0600
Last Weeks Range: 2.0808- 2.1239