EUR

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) hasn’t had much luck in July overall, against the Euro (EUR) it has been hammered from around 0.5670 (1.7570) areas to 0.5540 (1.8060) this morning having started the week at 0.5610 (1.7820). NZ CPI initially sent the NZD lower this morning but has kicked back to 0.5570 (1.7950) surprisingly.  Fridays ECB cash rate announcement and statement will see the central bank leave rates unchanged at 4.25% with no further rhetoric surrounding the recent dovish monetary slant expected.

Current Level: 1.7973
Resistance: 1.8100
Support: 1.7420
Last Weeks Range: 1.7588 – 1.7884

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) hasn’t had much luck in July overall, against the Euro (EUR) it has been hammered from around 0.5670 (1.7570) areas to 0.5540 (1.8060) this morning having started the week at 0.5610 (1.7820). NZ CPI initially sent the NZD lower this morning but has kicked back to 0.5570 (1.7950) surprisingly.  Fridays ECB cash rate announcement and statement will see the central bank leave rates unchanged at 4.25% with no further rhetoric surrounding the recent dovish monetary slant expected.

Current Level: 0.5573
Support: 0.5525
Resistance: 0.5740
Last week’s range: 0.5591- 0.5685

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has been the worst performing main board currency over the past week evident in the NZD/GBP cross with the British Pound (GBP) improving off 2.1200 (0.4715) Monday to reach 2.1490 (0.4655) earlier today. NZ CPI for the second quarter ending June came in at 0.4% compared to 0.6% expected. Year on year dropped to 3.3% from 4.0%, all but confirming two rate cuts in 2024 by the RBNZ. We expect the NZD to remain under pressure into the weekly close.

Current Level: 2.1353
Resistance: 2.1570
Support: 2.0600
Last Weeks Range: 2.0808- 2.1239

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has been the worst performing main board currency over the past week evident in the NZD/GBP cross with the British Pound (GBP) improving off 2.1200 (0.4715) Monday to reach 2.1490 (0.4655) earlier today. NZ CPI for the second quarter ending June came in at 0.4% compared to 0.6% expected. Year on year dropped to 3.3% from 4.0%, all but confirming two rate cuts in 2024 by the RBNZ. We expect the NZD to remain under pressure into the weekly close.

Current Level: 0.4683
Resistance: 0.4855
Support: 0.4635
Last Weeks Range: 0.4708- 0.4806

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extending its run against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD)  to reach 0.8985 (1.1130) this morning. This signifies a fresh 2024 low in the pair as the NZD comes under further pressure. NZ CPI published at 0.4% after 0.6% was expected taking down the year-on-year inflation to 3.3% from 4.0%. The kiwi has edged higher off the release pushing to around 0.9000 (1.1110) – 0.9010 (1.1010) but could meet pressure at 0.9025 (1.1080). Australian unemployment tomorrow should release at 4.1% up from 4.0%.

Current Level: 1.1071
Resistance: 1.1170
Support: 1.1000
Last Weeks Range: 0.8995 – 0.9121

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extending its run against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to reach 0.8985 (1.1130) this morning. This signifies a fresh 2024 low in the pair as the NZD comes under further pressure. NZ CPI published at 0.4% after 0.6% was expected taking down the year-on-year inflation to 3.3% from 4.0%. The kiwi has edged higher off the release pushing to around 0.9000 (1.1110) – 0.9010 (1.1010) but could meet pressure at 0.9025 (1.1080). Australian unemployment tomorrow should release at 4.1% up from 4.0%.

Current Level: 0.9023
Resistance: 0.9090
Support: 0.8950
Last Weeks Range: 1.0963-1.1117

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) made up ground against the US Dollar (USD) late in the week bouncing off 0.6070 levels to close a healthy 0.6170. Markets turned risk off over the weekend after the assignation attempt of ex-president Trump sending US yields higher. The kiwi traded lower through 0.6100 back towards 0.6040 as we kicked into Tuesday. NZ CPI for the second quarter ending June has come in at 0.4% from 0.6% in the previous quarter. Year on year has also been trimmed from 4.0% to 3.3% weaker than estimates of 3.5%. The NZD has rallied off the news strangely to the 0.6065 zone but will most likely settle lower over the day.

Current Level: 0.6074
Support: 0.6050
Resistance: 0.6150
Last week’s range: 0.6064- 0.6152

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decided to leave their cash rate unchanged at 5.5% as widely predicted for the 8th straight meeting. It was the less than hawkish tone by Governor Orr which sent the kiwi reeling against the US Dollar (USD) falling from 0.6125 to 0.6065 post the release Wednesday. US CPI overnight declined to 3.0% for June y/y from 3.3% coming in below expectations of 3.1%. Fed’s Powell quick to reiterate the job is not done yet with managing inflation with more work to do to combat future stubborn inflation saying he would like to see the number below 2.0% before rate cuts are applied. We see a potential cut in September which could put pressure on the greenback. Next week’s key data comes in the form of NZ CPI for the second quarter expected to print at 3.6% down from 4.0%.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6086

The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6064- 0.6251

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has fallen away hard this week against the English Pound (GBP) reaching 0.4710 (2.1230) early this morning after a dovish RBNZ read spooked buyers. RBNZ met Wednesday and left the cash rate at 5.5% as predicted, however the central bank was less hawkish than expected with odds increasing of not 1 but 2 rate cuts later this year predicted. A November cut is almost fully priced in but another earlier cut on the 14 August is now a 50/50 chance. The UK economy grew at 0.4% against 0.2% estimates in May also boosting the GBP. The cross sits at a 10-week low, a push past 0.4705 (2.1260) would signal a fresh yearly low going back to October 2023 levels.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4712 GBPNZD 2.1222

The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4710- 0.4804 GBPNZD 2.0813- 2.1233

The Australian Dollar (AUD) grew another leg higher this week as we expected, flying past resistance at 1.1025 (0.9070) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) on its way to post 1.1110 (0.9000) as I write. The RBNZ left the interest rate on hold at 5.5%, no surprise there but with a less than hawkish slant to future policy and the possibility of an extra cut this year possibly in August the NZD was massacred. The kiwi easily the worst performing currency of the main G10 group this week. Selling pressures remain for the NZD passing the 2024 low at 1.1085 (0.9020) we are now clearly in thin air. Buyers of AUD should consider.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.8994 AUDNZD 1.1107

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.8997- 0.9122 AUDNZD 1.0962- 1.1114