currency

Early week moves in the Euro (EUR), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to 0.5465 (1.8300) from the weekly at 0.5480 (1.8250) had the kiwi immediately on the backfoot in a thin week of economic Data. I’m not sure we will see a retest of the low at 0.5425 (1.8430) but we could get close if German prelim CPI y/y comes in below expectations tomorrow. With hikes on the horizon for the Eurozone a poor read could certainly pressure the ECB to tighten policy further at their Sep 15 meeting, this in turn won’t be inspiring for the kiwi.

Current Level: 1.8331
Resistance: 1.8470
Support: 1.8150
Last Weeks Range: 1.8151 – 1.8460

Early week moves in the Euro (EUR), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to 0.5465 (1.8300) from the weekly at 0.5480 (1.8250) had the kiwi immediately on the backfoot in a thin week of economic Data. I’m not sure we will see a retest of the low at 0.5425 (1.8430) but we could get close if German prelim CPI y/y comes in below expectations tomorrow. With hikes on the horizon for the Eurozone a poor read could certainly pressure the ECB to tighten policy further at their Sep 15 meeting, this in turn won’t be inspiring for the kiwi.

Current Level: 0.5455
Resistance: 0.5510
Support: 0.5415
Last Weeks Range: 0.5417 – 0.5509

A slow start to the week in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) cross has seen the GBP push up slightly on the kiwi to 2.1320 (0.4690) in thin UK holiday trading. The GBP will be targeting last week’s low at 0.4635 (1.1570) with fundamentals favouring further declines in the pair. It’s a very light economic calendar this week with just ANZ Business Confidence Wednesday expected to release poorly. It’s tough going for GBP buyers at current levels, we suggest to look for spikes in an otherwise bear currency.

Current Level: 2.1345
Resistance: 2.1600
Support: 2.0900
Last Weeks Range: 2.1228 – 2.1585

A slow start to the week in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) cross has seen the GBP push up slightly on the kiwi to 2.1320 (0.4690) in thin UK holiday trading. The GBP will be targeting last week’s low at 0.4635 (1.1570) with fundamentals favouring further declines in the pair. It’s a very light economic calendar this week with just ANZ Business Confidence Wednesday expected to release poorly. It’s tough going for GBP buyers at current levels, we suggest to look for spikes in an otherwise bear currency.

Current Level: 0.4685
Resistance: 0.4785
Support: 0.4630
Last Weeks Range: 0.4632 – 0.4710

Bouncing around usual ranges the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) traded into Tuesday at 0.9190 (1.0880). Breaking below 0.9200 (1.0870) support the Aussie now eyes 0.9175 (1.0900) the late July low. Australian Retail Sales came in hot at 0.5% in July up from June’s -0.8% allowing the AUD to perk up. Looking ahead we have Australian CPI m/m which is forecast to print lower than June’s 5.4% at 5.2%, anything higher than 5.4% will be dangerous for the NZD. Buyers of AUD should consider here.

Current Level: 1.0872
Resistance: 1.0930
Support: 1.0750
Last Weeks Range: 1.0778 – 1.08712

Bouncing around usual ranges the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) traded into Tuesday at 0.9190 (1.0880). Breaking below 0.9200 (1.0870) support the Aussie now eyes 0.9175 (1.0900) the late July low. Australian Retail Sales came in hot at 0.5% in July up from June’s -0.8% allowing the AUD to perk up. Looking ahead we have Australian CPI m/m which is forecast to print lower than June’s 5.4% at 5.2%, anything higher than 5.4% will be dangerous for the NZD. Buyers of AUD should consider here.

Current Level: 0.9189
Resistance: 0.9300
Support: 0.9150
Last Weeks Range: 0.9198 – 0.9278

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) settled around 0.5900 against the US Dollar (USD) late last week where it still sits into Tuesday trading. Risk assets were boosted slightly by rises in equity indices temporarily, amid weakened global demand and a backdrop of poor sentiment. The kiwi sits dangerously close to the precipice with no real support below 0.5850, all the way to 0.5550 zones. Fed talk at the Jackson Hole event confirmed nothing we didn’t already know with Fed chair Powell keeping his cards close to his chest reiterating he was non-committal. While the Fed has pencilled in one more hike to 5.75% it remains far from certain whether they will actually do it. Non-Farm Payroll releases Friday.

Current Level: 0.5911
Resistance: 0.6100
Support: 0.5880
Last Weeks Range: 0.5884 – 0.5984