currency

Market Overview:

Key Points:

• Non-Farm Payrolls
• EU/US Inflation
• China/German/US/Australia/US Trade Data
• RBA/Bank of Canada Rate Decisions
• Jackson Hole Symposium/BRICS Summit

The Australian Dollar (AUD) held firm around the 0.6425 area post the open against the USD Dollar (USD) Monday as equity markets traded positive. It’s hard to know if we will see a reversal of sorts this week and a push higher, but with improved sentiment in China after an improved May manufacturing PMI read who knows. Australian Retail Sales came in hot at 0.5% in July after a poor June release surprising analysts as shoppers came out during the FIFA Women’s World Cup. Despite this the RBA is still likely to raise rates at the September 5 meeting. Looking ahead we have US Non-Farm Payroll Friday which will add volatility to the mix.

Current Level: 0.6432
Resistance: 0.6365
Support: 0.6500
Last Weeks Range: 0.6385 – 0.6488

No real moves early this week in the Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) pair has price sitting around the 0.5940 (1.6830) area as we head into Tuesday. Aussie Retail Sales surprised with a 0.5% rise in July up on expectations of 0.2% and well above June’s -0.8%. A combination of dining out and the Women’s world cup football tournament impacting. The AUD may retest last week’s high of 0.5970 (1.6750) this week as Chinese pessimism improves and if equities remain buoyant.

Current Level: 1.6846
Resistance: 1.7065
Support: 1.6275
Last Weeks Range: 1.6751 – 1.7037

No real moves early this week in the Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) pair has price sitting around the 0.5940 (1.6830) area as we head into Tuesday. Aussie Retail Sales surprised with a 0.5% rise in July up on expectations of 0.2% and well above June’s -0.8%. A combination of dining out and the Women’s world cup football tournament impacting. The AUD may retest last week’s high of 0.5970 (1.6750) this week as Chinese pessimism improves and if equities remain buoyant.

Current Level: 0.5936
Resistance: 0.6145
Support: 0.5860
Last Weeks Range: 0.5869 – 0.5969

The Australian Dollar (AUD), British Pound (GBP) has been unmoved since Wednesday sitting around the 0.5100 (1.9600) mark into early Tuesday sessions. Australian Retail Sales surprised at 0.5% vs 0.2% expected in July and up from -0.8% in June. Food and FIFA Women’s World Cup to blame for the unexpected rise in spending. Looking ahead we have the Australian monthly CPI forecast to print around 5.2% in July down from June’s 5.4%. The pair has crossed above the 100-day moving average this morning signalling we may see a little more AUD strength to come.

Current Level: 1.9623
Resistance: 2.0000
Support: 1.9350
Last Weeks Range: 1.9581 – 1.9929

The Australian Dollar (AUD), British Pound (GBP) has been unmoved since Wednesday sitting around the 0.5100 (1.9600) mark into early Tuesday sessions. Australian Retail Sales surprised at 0.5% vs 0.2% expected in July and up from -0.8% in June. Food and FIFA Women’s World Cup to blame for the unexpected rise in spending. Looking ahead we have the Australian monthly CPI forecast to print around 5.2% in July down from June’s 5.4%. The pair has crossed above the 100-day moving average this morning signalling we may see a little more AUD strength to come.

Current Level: 0.5096
Resistance: 0.5165
Support: 0.5000
Last Weeks Range: 0.5017 – 0.5107

Early week moves in the Euro (EUR), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to 0.5465 (1.8300) from the weekly at 0.5480 (1.8250) had the kiwi immediately on the backfoot in a thin week of economic Data. I’m not sure we will see a retest of the low at 0.5425 (1.8430) but we could get close if German prelim CPI y/y comes in below expectations tomorrow. With hikes on the horizon for the Eurozone a poor read could certainly pressure the ECB to tighten policy further at their Sep 15 meeting, this in turn won’t be inspiring for the kiwi.

Current Level: 1.8331
Resistance: 1.8470
Support: 1.8150
Last Weeks Range: 1.8151 – 1.8460

Early week moves in the Euro (EUR), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to 0.5465 (1.8300) from the weekly at 0.5480 (1.8250) had the kiwi immediately on the backfoot in a thin week of economic Data. I’m not sure we will see a retest of the low at 0.5425 (1.8430) but we could get close if German prelim CPI y/y comes in below expectations tomorrow. With hikes on the horizon for the Eurozone a poor read could certainly pressure the ECB to tighten policy further at their Sep 15 meeting, this in turn won’t be inspiring for the kiwi.

Current Level: 0.5455
Resistance: 0.5510
Support: 0.5415
Last Weeks Range: 0.5417 – 0.5509

A slow start to the week in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) cross has seen the GBP push up slightly on the kiwi to 2.1320 (0.4690) in thin UK holiday trading. The GBP will be targeting last week’s low at 0.4635 (1.1570) with fundamentals favouring further declines in the pair. It’s a very light economic calendar this week with just ANZ Business Confidence Wednesday expected to release poorly. It’s tough going for GBP buyers at current levels, we suggest to look for spikes in an otherwise bear currency.

Current Level: 2.1345
Resistance: 2.1600
Support: 2.0900
Last Weeks Range: 2.1228 – 2.1585

A slow start to the week in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) cross has seen the GBP push up slightly on the kiwi to 2.1320 (0.4690) in thin UK holiday trading. The GBP will be targeting last week’s low at 0.4635 (1.1570) with fundamentals favouring further declines in the pair. It’s a very light economic calendar this week with just ANZ Business Confidence Wednesday expected to release poorly. It’s tough going for GBP buyers at current levels, we suggest to look for spikes in an otherwise bear currency.

Current Level: 0.4685
Resistance: 0.4785
Support: 0.4630
Last Weeks Range: 0.4632 – 0.4710