Apart from a small uptick early Monday off the open by the English Pound (GBP) to 0.4860 (2.0580), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has extended long term momentum reaching 0.4890 (2.0460) into Tuesday. The big picture uptrend from 6 weeks ago cleared resistance at 0.4875 (2.0520) which could imply the kiwi could carve out a longer-term uptrend however a push past 0.4905 (2.0380) could be tough.
Current Level: 2.0479
Resistance: 2.1600
Support: 2.0000
Last Weeks Range: 2.0485- 2.1000
Apart from a small uptick early Monday off the open by the English Pound (GBP) to 0.4860 (2.0580), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has extended long term momentum reaching 0.4890 (2.0460) into Tuesday. The big picture uptrend from 6 weeks ago cleared resistance at 0.4875 (2.0520) which could imply the kiwi could carve out a longer-term uptrend however a push past 0.4905 (2.0380) could be tough.
Current Level: 0.4883
Resistance: 0.5000
Support: 0.4630
Last Weeks Range: 0.4762 – 0.4881
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended last week’s push higher against the Australian Dollar (AUD) to 0.9295 (1.0760) clocking a fresh 7 week high in the pair. The breakout from the bear channel through 0.9210 (1.0860) made for a much larger correction move by the kiwi. Resistance is seen at 0.9320 (1.0730) the May high which we expect to hold over the week.
Current Level: 1.0759
Resistance: 1.0900
Support: 1.0720
Last Weeks Range: 1.0787 – 1.0905
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended last week’s push higher against the Australian Dollar (AUD) to 0.9295 (1.0760) clocking a fresh 7 week high in the pair. The breakout from the bear channel through 0.9210 (1.0860) made for a much larger correction move by the kiwi. Resistance is seen at 0.9320 (1.0730) the May high which we expect to hold over the week.
Current Level: 0.9282
Resistance: 0.9330
Support: 0.9175
Last Weeks Range: 0.9170 – 0.9270
The NZD is still finding its feet early in the week just below pivotal 0.6000 around 0.5960 after dipping to 0.5740 early Monday against the US Dollar (USD). A push through 0.5980 and a retest of 0.6000 following the momentum trend reversal from early Septembers 0.5860 makes the cross well supported to the topside for now.
Current Level: 0.5964
Resistance: 0.6200
Support: 0.5860
Last Weeks Range: 0.5893 – 0.5987
The Australian Dollar (AUD) reached 0.6500 midweek against the US Dollar (USD) but couldn’t hold this level, falling back sharply to 0.6400 on the Fed announcement. The Federal Reserve held the cash rate at 5.5% Thursday as predicted but signalled they were prepared to hike again one more time in 2023 to stabilise rising inflation. It often takes many months to see the full effects of a slowing economy. Fed chair Powell said a slower pace of hikes would give them more time to see how the economy responds. Pivoting around the 0.6400 area Friday we see a possible retest of the recent low at 0.6360 over the coming couple of weeks.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6403
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6385- 0.6511
The Australian Dollar (AUD) continued its 5-week dash to 0.5250 (1.9050) against the English Pound (GBP) Wednesday before giving back small gains over the last few hours to 0.5220 (1.9160).It has been all UK data on the docket this week, the GBP taking hits from all corners. UK inflation y/y printed better than forecast at 6.7% vs 7.0% a downside surprise, welcomed by the Bank of England with further rate hikes firmly coming into question. Certainly, last nights BoE “hold” at 5.25% was mostly priced in based on this inflation read. The central bank halting after 14 straight hikes going back to Dec 2021. The Bank was a little dovish, but another rate hike is still possible. BoE members voted 5 in favour of holding, including Governor Bailey, vs 4 to hike. We see stiff resistance at 0.5265 (1.9000) on the chart.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5213 GBPAUD 1.9182
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5025- 0.5271 GBPAUD 1.9055- 1.9283
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) pair has been centre of attention this week with a slew of data releasing. UK CPI came in at 6.7% compared to 7.0% predicted leading to a halt to the Bank of England (BoE) cash rate overnight. This ends their 14 straight run of hikes. It was always going to be close with most predicting a hike to 5.5% the likely result. The UK economy looks to have turned a corner choking high inflation woes. NZ GDP also surprised with data representing growth of 0.9% in the second quarter officially taking the economy out of a shallow recession. The RBNZ will now have work to determine if they will need to raise rates again to deflate the economy. The cross has only travelled one way over the week clocking 0.4825 (2.0720) this morning, the NZD extending its run higher for the 5th straight week after starting out around 0.41770 (2.0960)
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4819 GBPNZD 2.0751
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4759- 0.4834 GBPNZD 2.0688- 2.1009
US Dollar (USD) weakness moved the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to 0.5980 midweek before reversing profits to 0.5900 levels. The Federal Reserve held their cash rate at 5.50% with prospects of another hike later this year as the economy expands at a decent pace. Recent months of positive incoming data has the Fed on high inflation alert. New Zealand grew by a staggering 0.9% in the quarter ending June 2023 yanking the economy out of a technical recession after stalling in the last 2 quarters. The RBNZ will now have work to do determining if they will need to raise rates again to deflate the economy if they deem it to be running above capacity. They will be concerned around rising inflation and wage growth. Forecasts are still for a slow recovery in 2024 and 2025 before things return to normal in late 2025. We expect the kiwi to remain under pressure over the next week.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.5919
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5894- 0.5985