AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) reached a fresh new high overnight against the US Dollar (USD) of 0.6795 as risk sentiment improved Thursday. Fed officials continue to push back on earlier aggressive forecasting of rate cuts while US data came in positive. Apart from a blip in equity markets midweek when we saw the cross-dip half a cent to 0.6720 the Aussie remained in charge as commodity prices recovered. As we head into 2024 markets will be thin, as usual at this time of year we can expect swings. Good time to put in orders.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6799

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6689- 0.6799

AUD/GBP Transfer

The Australian Dollar extended moved past key 0.5300 (1.8870) levels Monday against the British Pound going on to reach 0.5370 (1.8630) in early Friday trading. The RBA minutes confirming the central bank had considered another hike but chose to halt hikes for longer periods. The Bank of England will be happy as Larry after CPI released earlier in the week way down on expectations of 4.3% coming in at 3.9%. Talk of cuts has now come back on the table with the forecasts suggesting the BoE will start to cut earlier than later possibly in the first quarter 2024 as analysts consider inflation falling further in the coming months. 0.5400 (1.8500) is seen as big resistance on the chart, a breakthrough here and we could see more upside in the cross.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5359 GBPAUD 1.8660

The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5281- 0.5369 GBPAUD 1.8624- 1.8934

NZD/GBP Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended gains on the British Pound (GBP) over the week clocking 0.4975 (2.0110) a level not seen since May earlier in the year. UK inflation slowed more than expected in November to the lowest level in two years. Coming off 4.6% in October to 3.9% the Bank of England (BoE) are most likely to consider cutting rates earlier than expected. The biggest mover on the CPI table was the fall in the cost of fuel prices with gas and fuel prices down 22% year on year to November. UK Retail Sales prints tonight for November sales and is expected to go negative. All momentum is with the kiwi leading into year-end although 0.5000 will be tough to break.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4956 GBPNZD 2.0177

The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4891- 0.4974 GBPNZD 2.0101- 2.0444

NZD/USD Transfer

Finance minister Nicola Willis delivered her mini budget over the week finding 7.5B of savings as the new National Govt cuts back on several Labour led initiatives. There was no real shift to the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) post the release however the kiwi posted new highs against the US Dollar (USD) reaching 0.6295 a late July high. If we look back over 2023 the kiwi has underperformed for most of the year to mid-October when it pulled back most of the losses over 2023. The cross started the year circa 0.6330 so we are not far off this. US UoM Consumer Sentiment prints in the morning and should reflect a similar positive result to earlier week Consumer Board confidence. Markets over the Xmas/NY dates will be thin and volatile; we expect reasonable shifts in the cross. Leaving orders with us is the way to go if you are targeting a specific level.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6287

The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6187- 0.6297

NZD/AUD Transfer

Over 2023 the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross has traded in a range between 0.9100 and 0.9430 for over 90% of the time. We have not seen any big runs one way or another as the NZD/AUD remained converged for most of the year. The pair started the year around 0.9320 (1.0730) and trades today at 0.9250 (1.0810). The RBA minutes signalled the central bank considered raising rates before deciding to stand down saying they would wait for incoming data such as inflation and employment data to make further calls. The next data release is Australian CPI y/y on the 10th of Jan. Until then we could see the Aussie make further gains to retest 0.9175 (1.0900)

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9244 AUDNZD 1.0806

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9244- 0.9300 AUDNZD 1.0752- 1.0817

NZD/AUD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) closed the week out around 0.9270 (1.0790) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) extending losses throughout the week from 0.9375 (1.0670) numbers. Data out in the form of NZ GDP q/q ending September wasn’t so NZD supportive after printing at -0.3% vs 0.2% expectations lowering the kiwi. Fears of another NZ recession have crept back into conversations with questions being raised on whether the RBNZ have raised too far with 4th quarter growth predictions to worsen. The Aussie was further boosted by Aussie unemployment numbers jumping to 3.9% a June 2022 high despite jobs numbers coming in hot at 61,500 compared to 11,000 predictions. What this means is the central bank will keep rates at 4.25% for longer with the caveat being incoming jobs reports and inflation forecasts. On the chart we saw a small pullback to 0.9295 (1.0760) in the kiwi to start the week but this was short lived with price back around 0.9260 (1.0800) this morning. With no proper data on the docket this week we should see the cross bounce around the 0.9200 (1.0870) – 0.9300 (1.0750) zone.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9262 AUDNZD 1.0784

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9260- 0.9295 AUDNZD 1.0758- 1.0798

AUD/USD Transfer

The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged late last week at 5.50% but pivoted on policy reflecting a dovish stance. The Fed’s ability to guide the economy to a soft landing is being commended with the timing of rate cuts suggested for 2024 along with key risk management. The chance of further rate hikes are now slim with several rate cuts being priced in from mid-2024. The AUD/USD bounced from 0.6600 levels to 0.6670 around the release. Unemployment rose in November to 3.9% the highest level since May 2022 vs forecast of 3.8%. This sent the Aussie higher again underpinning the recent RBA’s concern of persistent domestic demand. The economy added 61,500 jobs – more than the 11,500 expected. The Aussie has held up well since as equities posted gains, into morning trade around the 0.6700 level just off a 20-week high.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6702

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6689- 0.6734

NZD/USD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) shifted higher late in the week against the US Dollar (USD) pushing into the 0.62’s after a massive re-think in Fed sentiment. Price reached 0.6250 as the Fed delivered their unchanged cash rate announcement. The Fed said they would keep rates as they are until mid-2024 when they expect to cut rates around June, possibly twice more before the end of the year. Earlier US CPI printed at 3.1% y/y bang on forecast throwing doubt into whether the Fed would price in cuts. NZ GDP q/q released at -0.3% down on 0.2% expectations, the economy contracting more than markets were forecasting and stoking fears of another recession is on the cards. Have the RBNZ raised rates too much in efforts to aggressively bring down inflation which is still 5.6%. It’s now a strong likelihood the central bank will consider cutting sooner over later in 2024. Through most of 2023 the kiwi has been mostly bearish, we believe we may have seen a shift to a bullish tone over November with pricing reversing off mid 57’s, strong support is now 0.6000.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6211

The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6187- 0.6250