NZD/AUD Transfer

Over 2023 the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross has traded in a range between 0.9100 and 0.9430 for over 90% of the time. We have not seen any big runs one way or another as the NZD/AUD remained converged for most of the year. The pair started the year around 0.9320 (1.0730) and trades today at 0.9250 (1.0810). The RBA minutes signalled the central bank considered raising rates before deciding to stand down saying they would wait for incoming data such as inflation and employment data to make further calls. The next data release is Australian CPI y/y on the 10th of Jan. Until then we could see the Aussie make further gains to retest 0.9175 (1.0900)

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9244 AUDNZD 1.0806

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9244- 0.9300 AUDNZD 1.0752- 1.0817

NZD/AUD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) closed the week out around 0.9270 (1.0790) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) extending losses throughout the week from 0.9375 (1.0670) numbers. Data out in the form of NZ GDP q/q ending September wasn’t so NZD supportive after printing at -0.3% vs 0.2% expectations lowering the kiwi. Fears of another NZ recession have crept back into conversations with questions being raised on whether the RBNZ have raised too far with 4th quarter growth predictions to worsen. The Aussie was further boosted by Aussie unemployment numbers jumping to 3.9% a June 2022 high despite jobs numbers coming in hot at 61,500 compared to 11,000 predictions. What this means is the central bank will keep rates at 4.25% for longer with the caveat being incoming jobs reports and inflation forecasts. On the chart we saw a small pullback to 0.9295 (1.0760) in the kiwi to start the week but this was short lived with price back around 0.9260 (1.0800) this morning. With no proper data on the docket this week we should see the cross bounce around the 0.9200 (1.0870) – 0.9300 (1.0750) zone.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9262 AUDNZD 1.0784

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9260- 0.9295 AUDNZD 1.0758- 1.0798

AUD/USD Transfer

The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged late last week at 5.50% but pivoted on policy reflecting a dovish stance. The Fed’s ability to guide the economy to a soft landing is being commended with the timing of rate cuts suggested for 2024 along with key risk management. The chance of further rate hikes are now slim with several rate cuts being priced in from mid-2024. The AUD/USD bounced from 0.6600 levels to 0.6670 around the release. Unemployment rose in November to 3.9% the highest level since May 2022 vs forecast of 3.8%. This sent the Aussie higher again underpinning the recent RBA’s concern of persistent domestic demand. The economy added 61,500 jobs – more than the 11,500 expected. The Aussie has held up well since as equities posted gains, into morning trade around the 0.6700 level just off a 20-week high.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6702

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6689- 0.6734

NZD/USD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) shifted higher late in the week against the US Dollar (USD) pushing into the 0.62’s after a massive re-think in Fed sentiment. Price reached 0.6250 as the Fed delivered their unchanged cash rate announcement. The Fed said they would keep rates as they are until mid-2024 when they expect to cut rates around June, possibly twice more before the end of the year. Earlier US CPI printed at 3.1% y/y bang on forecast throwing doubt into whether the Fed would price in cuts. NZ GDP q/q released at -0.3% down on 0.2% expectations, the economy contracting more than markets were forecasting and stoking fears of another recession is on the cards. Have the RBNZ raised rates too much in efforts to aggressively bring down inflation which is still 5.6%. It’s now a strong likelihood the central bank will consider cutting sooner over later in 2024. Through most of 2023 the kiwi has been mostly bearish, we believe we may have seen a shift to a bullish tone over November with pricing reversing off mid 57’s, strong support is now 0.6000.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6211

The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6187- 0.6250

AUD/USD Transfer

A solid US jobs report Friday moved the Australian Dollar (AUD) lower against the US Dollar (USD) closing the week around the 0.6570 zone. Non-Farm Payroll showed further jobs were added to the economy in November beating expectations of 184k to 199k, some suggesting the US economy could be setting up for a soft economic landing. Unemployment also came in better than expected at 3.7% after 3.9% was expected pushing investors to buy the greenback. The Fed cash rate will publish Wednesday and should remain at 5.5% but not before key US CPI y/y. Whatever happens will set the tone for the following couple of months for AUD/USD direction.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6566

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6549- 0.6582

AUD/GBP Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD), British Pound (GBP) cross is still firmly bouncing around within recent ranges and has done so since late September. Into Tuesday the Aussie has improved, trading around the 0.5230 (1.9120) area off 0.5210 (1.9190). On the calendar this week we have Australian employment data and later the Bank of England official cash rate- expected to remain unchanged at 5.25%.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5226 GBPAUD 1.9135

The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5211- 0.5245 GBPAUD 1.9064- 1.9187

NZD/USD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) underperformed towards the end of the week against the US Dollar (USD) falling to 0.6110 levels as strong US data printed. Into Tuesday morning trade we have seen a small perk up in the kiwi to 0.6130 but topside this week could be tough going. We will get a look at US CPI tomorrow, predicted to dip lower from 3.2% to 3.1%. Anything around 3.2% will almost certainly set the scene for another round of interest rate hikes in order to bring down inflation to Fed target levels. Markets however would love to see a decent fall to bring forward rate cuts forecast for third quarter 2024.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6120

The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6104- 0.6131

 

NZD/GBP Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended its decline from 0.4925 (2.0300) Friday against the British Pound (GBP) reaching 0.4860 (2.0570) in late Monday trading. A pullback in risk sentiment was the main reason amid weaker than expected NZ September Manufacturing data. Despite UK inflation outlook being downgraded the GBP still managed to make gains on the kiwi. Into Tuesday we have seen the NZD bounce back post buoyant overnight equities. This week’s docket has NZ GDP and the Bank of England cash rate expected to remain at 5.25%

The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4874 GBPNZD 2.0517

The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4860- 0.4887 GBPNZD 2.0461- 2.0576