NZD/GBP Transfer

The Bank of England (BoE) Kept interest rates on hold overnight at 5.25% as expected with the bank suggesting they may start cuts in August with a weak outlook for growth as projections the economy will only grow just 0.8% in 2024. Inflation is expected to fall to their 2.0% target point over the coming months but may be a rocky road with energy price effects before settling around the 2.0% late in 2025. Agreement over 5.25% wasn’t a given with 2 members wanting to drop rates 25 points to 5.0%, the vote 2-7 in favour of a hold. Prices in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) extended higher to 0.4820 (2.0750) this morning a fresh 8 week high in the cross. Of note; price sits bang on the 61.8% fib level suggesting we could see a move today back to 0.4800 (2.0830)

The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4819 GBPNZD 2.0751

The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4779- 0.4825 GBPNZD 2.0723- 2.0922

AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) sits just above the weekly open at 0.6620 into Friday against the US Dollar (USD) recovering early week losses from 0.6560 levels. The RBA left rates unchanged Tuesday at 4.35%, the AUD dropping post the release as the statement was seen as less hawkish than markets were expecting. The bank saying the path of interest rates will ensure inflation returns to target in a good timeframe, the RBA not ruling anything out. Inflation targets are projected to fall to 2.8% by late 2025 putting it bang on in their target zone of 2-3%. US Inflation next week should reflect a drop y/y from 3.5% to 3.4%, earlier year forecasts of 3.1% won’t eventuate. A retest of 0.6640 is close, a break above here would suggest bullish continuation.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6616

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6556- 0.6643

 

 

NZD/AUD Transfer

Tuesday’s RBA interest rate remained unchanged at 4.35% with the RBA a little less hawkish than we were expecting. Prices in the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) ticked higher from 0.9075 (1.1020) to reach 0.9132 (1.0950) early Friday. The RBA will leave interest rates on hold until at least year end with inflation forecasted to be around 2.8% late 2025. If we compare this to NZ inflation forecast which are falling faster its clear to see divergence starting to affect the NZD/AUD. We will get a closer look next week at NZ Inflation Expectations q/q. We are not convinced just yet we have seen the low at 0.9065 (1.1030) in the rear-view mirror, certainly if price breaks 0.9140 (1.0940) we could see further rises for the kiwi.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9121 AUDNZD 1.0959

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9067- 0.9134 AUDNZD 1.0947- 1.1029

NZD/USD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) eased back below 0.6000 to 0.5980 midweek but has recovered against the US Dollar (USD) into early Friday to 0.6035 as risk and equity markets improved. US Core inflation holds the key to the Fed interest rate moves on the horizon, key to keeping interest rate cuts on the table over the next few months CPI will need to shift lower in next week’s report. Currently this is 0.4% with expectations of a read of 0.3%. This will move the yearly inflation number from 3.5% to 3.4%. The cross now eyes last week’s prior top at 0.6046 and past this point the 8-week high of 0.6105. We think with central bank divergence will start to play a bigger part over the next few months, we may have seen the last of the yearly low levels around 0.5850.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6035

The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5980- 0.6039

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Understanding the NZ to AU Exchange Rate

Navigating the nuances of foreign exchange can be daunting, especially when it involves frequently fluctuating currencies like the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and the Australian Dollar (AUD). Whether you’re planning a business investment, managing cross-border transactions, or simply sending money home, understanding the dynamics of the NZD to AUD exchange rate is crucial.

What Influences the NZD to AUD Exchange Rate?

Economic Indicators:

Both New Zealand and Australia have vibrant economies that are closely tied to each other, yet distinct in many ways. Economic indicators such as GDP growth rates, employment data, and inflation rates significantly impact the exchange rate. For instance, if New Zealand’s economy is perceived to be stronger than Australia’s, the NZD may appreciate against the AUD.

Interest Rates:

Decisions by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on interest rates play a pivotal role. Higher interest rates offer lenders in an economy a higher return relative to other countries. Therefore, higher interest rates attract foreign capital and cause the exchange rate to rise, and vice versa.

Commodity Prices:

Both countries are major exporters of commodities, but the types of commodities they export vary. Australia’s heavy reliance on iron ore and coal contrasts with New Zealand’s export profile of dairy products and meat. Fluctuations in these commodity prices can significantly affect the NZD to AUD exchange rate.

Political Stability and Economic Performance:

Political events can create uncertainty or stability in a country, influencing investor confidence and currency valuations. Any political turmoil or economic downturn can lead to a depreciation of the domestic currency against its counterparts.

Recent Trends and Future Projections

In recent times, we’ve seen the NZD to AUD rate respond to global economic pressures, trade negotiations, and changes in domestic policies. Understanding these trends through historical data helps in predicting future movements. For instance, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourism and exports had notable effects on both currencies.

How Can Direct FX Help?

At Direct FX, we provide real-time, competitive exchange rates and insights into the NZD to AUD exchange dynamics. Our platform offers tools and resources to help you make informed decisions:

  • Real-Time Data: Access up-to-the-minute exchange rates and market insights.
  • Expert Analysis: Our team offers analyses and forecasts based on current market conditions.
  • Customisable Solutions: Whether you need to make a one-time transfer or manage regular payments, our solutions are tailored to meet your needs.

 

Understanding the factors that influence the NZD to AUD exchange rate is essential for anyone engaged in trans-Tasman financial activities. By staying informed and choosing the right partner like Direct FX, you can navigate this complex landscape with confidence and efficiency.

Stay tuned for our next blog post where we delve into the historical trends of the NZD to AUD exchange rate, providing you with a clearer picture of what to expect in the future.

EURO/AUD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) held the 0.6155 (1.6250) level Monday after breaking through prior resistance at 0.6135 (1.6300) Friday after risk mood bought back buyers of AUD. At a fresh early January 2024 level, the AUD now targets the yearly open at 0.6185 (1.6170). Monday’s Eurozone PMI read came in higher printing at 53.3 vs 52.9 in April with European Retail Sales due later today with a rebound off March’s -0.5% decline to 0.6% expected.

Current Level: 1.6265
Resistance: 1.6500
Support: 1.6160
Last Weeks Range: 1.6229- 1.6495

AUD/EURO Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) held the 0.6155 (1.6250) level Monday after breaking through prior resistance at 0.6135 (1.6300) Friday after risk mood bought back buyers of AUD. At a fresh early January 2024 level, the AUD now targets the yearly open at 0.6185 (1.6170). Monday’s Eurozone PMI read came in higher printing at 53.3 vs 52.9 in April with European Retail Sales due later today with a rebound off March’s -0.5% decline to 0.6% expected.

Current Level: 0.6148
Resistance: 0.6190
Support: 0.6060
Last Weeks Range: 0.6062- 0.6161

GBP/AUD Transfer

This week’s main attraction is a double header of central bank action with the Bank of England (BoE) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) both releasing policy statements and cash rates. The Aussie kicked back from 0.5180 (1.9300) mid-week closing around the 0.5275 (1.8960) area extending its run to a 17-week high. Both central banks should retain policy, BoE at 5.25% and the RBA at 4.35%. We see a small chance the RBA could hike to 4.6% but this would be a gutsy move. The BoE could start conversations around cutting sooner than later but will most likely confirm a wait and see approach based on incoming data over the next couple of months. Also of note is monthly UK GDP for March with no improvement from 0.1% expected. We favour a retest of 0.5305 (1.8850) over the week.

Current Level: 1.8971
Resistance: 1.9100
Support: 1.8900
Last Weeks Range: 1.8940- 1.9308

AUD/GBP Transfer

This week’s main attraction is a double header of central bank action with the Bank of England (BoE) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) both releasing policy statements and cash rates. The Aussie kicked back from 0.5180 (1.9300) mid-week closing around the 0.5275 (1.8960) area extending its run to a 17-week high. Both central banks should retain policy, BoE at 5.25% and the RBA at 4.35%. We see a small chance the RBA could hike to 4.6% but this would be a gutsy move. The BoE could start conversations around cutting sooner than later but will most likely confirm a wait and see approach based on incoming data over the next couple of months. Also of note is monthly UK GDP for March with no improvement from 0.1% expected. We favour a retest of 0.5305 (1.8850) over the week

Current Level: 0.5271
Support: 0.5235
Resistance: 0.5290
Last week’s range: 0.5179- 0.5279

AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD), US Dollar (USD) extended moves higher Monday off Fridays Non-Farm Payroll data reaching 0.6640. The green back has lost some of its recent appeal, certainly the Federal Reserve are considering rate cuts sooner rather than later now post jobs data. The number of people employed seasonally adjusted in March dropped with just 175,000 new jobs created instead of the 238,000 predicted. Unemployment also ticked up from 3.8% to 3.9% confirming the labour market is cooling. The pair is sitting just below the triple top resistance level at 0.6645 suggesting a pullback could eventuate depending on the RBA this afternoon. The RBA cash rate should remain unchanged at 4.35% but this is not a dead cert with many suggesting a hike is in store. We think with inflationary pressures still hot they should hold for the 4th straight meeting.

Current Level: 0.6622
Support: 0.6565
Resistance: 0.6650
Last week’s range: 0.6464- 0.6647