GBP/AUD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) broke below the 2-week recent range this morning against the British Pound (GBP) to 0.5250 (1.9055) targeting the 50% retracement area around 0.5235 (1.9100). All eyes this week will be on UK CPI y/y with predictions the number will drop from 3.2% to 2.1% which will make or break a potential June rate cut. Currently we see rate cut chances at 50/50.  The bank’s target range is 2.0% so we are going to get close, buckle in. UK Retail Sales is later in the week but could surprise lower.

Current Level: 1.9058
Resistance: 1.9200
Support: 1.8890
Last Weeks Range: 1.8906- 1.9034

AUD/GBP Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) broke below the 2-week recent range this morning against the British Pound (GBP) to 0.5250 (1.9055) targeting the 50% retracement area around 0.5235 (1.9100). All eyes this week will be on UK CPI y/y with predictions the number will drop from 3.2% to 2.1% which will make or break a potential June rate cut. Currently we see rate cut chances at 50/50.  The bank’s target range is 2.0% so we are going to get close, buckle in. UK Retail Sales is later in the week but could surprise lower.

Current Level: 0.5247
Support: 0.5210
Resistance: 0.5295
Last week’s range: 0.5253- 0.5289

AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended moves higher in overnight trading to reach 0.6710 against the US Dollar (USD) before slipping back to 0.6665 early Tuesday. The bull trend of late from 0.6400 over the past 5 weeks looks in intact with the next target in the pair to the topside at 0.6850 looking vulnerable. The Aussie should get relief around the 0.6640 zone on the downside with a daily close below here perhaps a concern. US Treasury secretary Yellen speaks tonight before Thursday’s Fed minutes and Friday’s US consumer sentiment.

Current Level: 0.6670
Support: 0.6620
Resistance: 0.6845
Last week’s range: 0.6577- 0.6713

EURO/NZD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reached 0.5650 (1.7700) Monday after outperforming the Euro last week from 0.5570 (1.7960) levels. The cross then bounced off key fib 61.8 resistance retreating towards 0.5620 (1.7790) midday Tuesday as risk currencies start to lose favour. Eurozone data in the form of decent French unemployment and ECB’s Schnabel also giving the Euro a boost saying cutting rates in June and July should be treated with care. Wednesday’s RBNZ should hold interest rates at 5.5% with talk over rate cut timings key.

Current Level: 1.7793
Resistance: 1.7900
Support: 1.7700
Last Weeks Range: 1.7715 – 1.7964

NZD/EURO Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reached 0.5650 (1.7700) Monday after outperforming the Euro last week from 0.5570 (1.7960) levels. The cross then bounced off key fib 61.8 resistance retreating towards 0.5620 (1.7790) midday Tuesday as risk currencies start to lose favour. Eurozone data in the form of decent French unemployment and ECB’s Schnabel also giving the Euro a boost saying cutting rates in June and July should be treated with care. Wednesday’s RBNZ should hold interest rates at 5.5% with talk over rate cut timings key.

Current Level: 0.5620
Support: 0.5585
Resistance: 0.5650
Last week’s range: 0.5566- 0.5644

GBP/NZD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar has outperformed the English Pound (GBP) 3 weeks straight from the yearly low at (0.4705) 2.1257 to trade to 0.4840 (2.0650) late in the week. Into Tuesday we have seen a little weakness in the kiwi with prices back around 0.4810 (2.0800) level. It’s a busy economic docket this week for the pair with RBNZ Wednesday before UK CPI. We don’t expect any change from 5.5% but the rhetoric around timing of cuts could be interesting. UK inflation year on year is expected to come in at 2.1% from 3.2% which will set the tone for the upcoming rate release and a potential cut in the mid-June central bank rate publication. We think a retest at 0.4785 (2.0900) looks possible.

Current Level: 2.0820
Resistance: 2.0900
Support: 2.0650
Last Weeks Range: 2.0650- 2.0892

NZD/GBP Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar has outperformed the English Pound (GBP) 3 weeks straight from the yearly low at (0.4705) 2.1257 to trade to 0.4840 (2.0650) late in the week. Into Tuesday we have seen a little weakness in the kiwi with prices back around 0.4810 (2.0800) level. It’s a busy economic docket this week for the pair with RBNZ Wednesday before UK CPI. We don’t expect any change from 5.5% but the rhetoric around timing of cuts could be interesting. UK inflation year on year is expected to come in at 2.1% from 3.2% which will set the tone for the upcoming rate release and a potential cut in the mid-June central bank rate publication. We think a retest at 0.4785 (2.0900) looks possible.

Current Level: 0.44803
Resistance: 0.4840
Support: 0.4785
Last Weeks Range: 0.4786- 0.4842

AUD/NZD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) outperformed the Australian Dollar (AUD) for the second week running reaching 0.9180 (1.0890) to start the week. The kiwi perhaps a little overbought at these levels falling lower to 0.9150 (1.0930) early this morning. Chinese data at the end of the week came in mixed affecting the AUD with the economy’s recovery looking bumpy. The main even this week is the RBNZ cash rate and statement with expectations that we should see a remain at 5.5%. Talk around the timing of when the central banks first hike could be interesting, we expect a dovish slant and pending cuts to be bought forward. Pressure this week will be on the kiwi.

Current Level: 1.0920
Resistance: 1.1030
Support: 1.0860
Last Weeks Range: 1.0890- 1.0996

NZD/AUD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) outperformed the Australian Dollar (AUD) for the second week running reaching 0.9180 (1.0890) to start the week. The kiwi perhaps a little overbought at these levels falling lower to 0.9150 (1.0930) early this morning. Chinese data at the end of the week came in mixed affecting the AUD with the economy’s recovery looking bumpy. The main even this week is the RBNZ cash rate and statement with expectations that we should see a remain at 5.5%. Talk around the timing of when the central banks first hike could be interesting, we expect a dovish slant and pending cuts to be bought forward. Pressure this week will be on the kiwi.

Current Level: 0.9149
Resistance: 0.9210
Support: 0.9065
Last Weeks Range: 0.9094- 0.9182

 

NZD/USD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) fell back Monday from levels around 0.6130 against the US Dollar (USD) to head into Tuesday trading around 0.6100. Risk markets are still well supported in the wash up of the recent US data releases. The RBNZ is the only central bank scheduled this week and will most likely leave their cash rate on hold at 5.5% as inflation is not coming down as fast as desired. We think however the RBNZ will bring forward their easing of rates in a dovish read, the NZ economy is not doing as well as some of the data shows. We expect resistance at the 0.6200 level will hold with the kiwi to slip.

Current Level: 0.6104
Support: 0.6050
Resistance: 0.6200
Last week’s range: 0.5992- 0.6140