currency exchange

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) traded to a yearly high late last week against the Euro (EUR) reaching 0.5505 (1.8170)  before closing at 0.5495 (1.8200). The NZD however gave back gains to 0.5470 (1.8290) even as NZ Retail Sales printed above expectations to 0.9% for January after 0.5% was predicted. The Euro getting a fresh wave of EUR optimism off the back of anticipated new leadership of Friedrich Merz who has signalled an intent to reduce Germany’s dependence on the US. The 0.5495 (1.8200) level offers good resistance in the pair with a view of further downside in the kiwi this week.

Current Level: 1.8268
Resistance: 1.8530
Support: 1.8170
Last Weeks Range: 1.8170 – 1.8392

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) traded to a yearly high late last week against the Euro (EUR) reaching 0.5505 (1.8170)  before closing at 0.5495 (1.8200). The NZD however gave back gains to 0.5470 (1.8290) even as NZ Retail Sales printed above expectations to 0.9% for January after 0.5% was predicted. The Euro getting a fresh wave of EUR optimism off the back of anticipated new leadership of Friedrich Merz who has signalled an intent to reduce Germany’s dependence on the US. The 0.5495 (1.8200) level offers good resistance in the pair with a view of further downside in the kiwi this week.

Current Level: 0.5474
Support: 0.5400
Resistance: 0.5503
Last week’s range: 0.5437- 0.5503

Weekly opening swings of late has been have been incredible with so much geopolitical news over the weekends. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) cross no exception the NZD retreating off 0.4550 (2.1980) to open at 0.4560 (2.1940) before clocking 0.4535 (2.2050) around midday. NZ Retail Sales came in hot at 0.9% for January vs 0.5% markets were expecting. Late in the week is the G20 meeting in Johannesburg where key issues such as the Ukraine/Russia war will be discussed.

Current Level: 2.2040
Resistance: 2.2380
Support: 2.1930
Last Weeks Range: 2.1935- 2.2210

Weekly opening swings of late has been have been incredible with so much geopolitical news over the weekends. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) cross no exception the NZD retreating off 0.4550 (2.1980) to open at 0.4560 (2.1940) before clocking 0.4535 (2.2050) around midday. NZ Retail Sales came in hot at 0.9% for January vs 0.5% markets were expecting. Late in the week is the G20 meeting in Johannesburg where key issues such as the Ukraine/Russia war will be discussed.

Current Level: 0.4537
Resistance: 0.4560
Support: 0.4465
Last Weeks Range: 0.4502- 0.4558

Australian CPI y/y Wednesday is the only data focus this week for the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) cross. Predictions are for a jump to the December figure from 2.50% to 2.60% y/y. CPI in Australia is expected to rise above 3.00% in the second half of 2025 before returning to the target range of 1-2% in 2026. We think setbacks by the AUD should be well supported at 0.9000 with the continuation of the bear channel resuming towards 0.8985 (1.1130)

Current Level: 1.1064
Resistance: 1.1150
Support: 1.1050
Last Weeks Range: 1.1062 – 1.1173

Australian CPI y/y Wednesday is the only data focus this week for the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) cross. Predictions are for a jump to the December figure from 2.50% to 2.60% y/y. CPI in Australia is expected to rise above 3.00% in the second half of 2025 before returning to the target range of 1-2% in 2026. We think setbacks by the AUD should be well supported at 0.9000 with the continuation of the bear channel resuming towards 0.8985 (1.1130)

Current Level: 0.9026
Resistance: 0.9050
Support: 0.8970
Last Weeks Range: 0.8950 – 0.9040

Initial gains made by the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to 0.5770 against the US Dollar (USD) were undone Monday with prices falling back to 0.5730 overnight. NZ Retail Sales q/q printed at 0.9% in December a modest increase from estimates of 0.5%, this is a stark contrast from the early 2021 quarter peak of 8.6%. This plays well for GDP projections with the NZ economy expected to break out of the technical recession when the 4th quarter prints in mid-March. US prelim GDP also prints Friday with no change from the 2.3% number in the third quarter expected. Topside moves could be limited this week.

Current Level: 0.5730
Support: 0.5700
Resistance: 0.5800
Last week’s range: 0.5676 – 0.5771

The RBA cut interest rates Tuesday by 25 points to 4.10% from 4.35%, the first time the central bank has cut rates since October 2020. The review was hawkish as markets were expecting from Governor Bullock suggesting progress has been made with inflation, but they have a way to go, the bank pencilling just 2 further cuts to 3.6% this year. The cross travelling from 0.8985 (1.1130) post the news to 0.8950 (1.1170). The RBNZ also cut rates 50 points as widely predicted following the RBA Wednesday 50 points to 3.75% but was dovish in comparison on future economic prospects. The NZD clawing back losses to 0.9025 (1.1080) into Friday. Bumper Aussie employment data just out with unemployment remaining at 4.1% and net employment rising 44,000 in January has buyers back into AUD with price moving back to 0.9000 (1.1110)

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9000 AUDNZD 1.1102
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 08950- 0.9035 AUDNZD 1.1068- 1.1173

The Reserve bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut the key interest rate by 50 points Wednesday from 4.25% to 3.75% as predicted. This was the fourth time in a row they have dropped it. The central bank is now forecasting a drop to 3.00% in 2025, we predict 50 of this will come at the April policy meeting with the economy still spluttering. US Dollar weakness came into play midweek with tariff talks and a “risk on” tone after positive developments in the Russia/Ukraine peace talks. At 0.5760 into Friday up from the midweek low of 0.5675 we expect further topside moves by the kiwi could be overdone.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.5759
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5677- 0.5771