AUD

FX News

AUD/EUR Transfer

Australian unemployment clicked higher to 3.7% from June’s 3.5%, the Chinese economic outlook has worsened, and the RBA were dovish leaning all helped to push the Australian Dollar (AUD) to new lows against the Euro (EUR) this morning clocking 0.5860 (1.7060) a 3 May 2020 level. German economic sentiment released slightly better than expected at -12.3 vs -15.0 which is bizarre as the economic situation has worsened lately. We expect the Euro has further to run before any change in momentum is seen.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.5897    EURAUD 1.6957

The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.5860- 0.5974    EURAUD 1.6738- 1.7063

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

The English Pound (GBP) continued to dominate moves across the main board of currencies, extending its dominance over the Australian Dollar (AUD) in a big way this week. The biggest weekly move in a year by the cross sees it trading at 0.5015 (1.9950) this morning compared to the weekly open price of 0.5130 (1.9490). Great for sellers of GBP- not so flash if you are buying. A bumper UK jobs earning number followed by an improving inflation read – 6.8% y/y in July down from June’s 7.9% won’t be enough for the Bank of England who will almost certainly bump their cash rate 50 points next month to 5.75%. There isn’t much standing in the way of the cross testing the April 2020 level of 0.4950 (2.0200) over the following days.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5031    GBPAUD 1.9876

The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5007- 0.5130    GBPAUD 1.9487- 1.9966

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

The US Dollar (USD) has lengthened out its hold over the Australian Dollar (AUD) to 0.6400 levels this morning earlier yesterday reaching 0.6365. The cross has cleared all remaining support levels of late with the remaining significant long-term support remaining at 0.6140. A mix of factors hasn’t helped the Aussie of late- “risk” markets were softer overnight, Chinese outlook fears and a dovish RBA all contributing. On the plus side Australian unemployment jumped from 3.5% to 3.7% strengthening the case for the RBA to hold rates for some time ahead. Meanwhile the Fed minutes wash up confirmed the Federal Reserve still sees inflation risks ahead and a potential need to raise rates if required. Sell the dip, buy the rip.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6419

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6363- 0.6520

FX News

NZD/AUD Transfer

As we said earlier the Australian Dollar (AUD) came under pressure, but it wasn’t until late Wednesday we saw a shift off 0.9210 (1.0860) levels back to 0.9235 (1.0830). NZ Retail Sales disappointed in the June quarter coming in at -1.0% vs -0.4% the 3rd consecutive decline representing consumers leaving money in their pocket, the biggest contributor being food and beverage with the sector struggling. On the whole, the pair remains well within recent ranges. Next week’s economic docket looks super thin, more of the same looks to be the likely theme.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9225    AUDNZD 1.0833

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9192- 0.9266    AUDNZD 1.0792- 1.0879

FX News

Key Points This Week

FX Update

Key Points:

  • The Reserve Bank of New Zealand holds interest rates at 5.50%
  • Japanese “core-core” inflation – (excluding food and energy) rises to 4.3%
  • Gold has fallen to the lowest level since March- 1980 per ounce.
  • Chinese Industrial production released down on expectations in the second quarter, with domestic indicators like real estate and demand for exports also taking hits.
  • The US 30-year bond traded to 4.42% overnight breaking above last year’s high and matching 2011 levels. This is starting to weigh on equity markets with US indices all coming off recent highs.
  • The British Pound (GBP) has been the strongest currency this week with the Australian Dollar (AUD) the worst performer.
FX News

NZD/USD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continued its downward spiral late last week reaching 0.5980 closing below key support at the big figure- 0.6000 against the US Dollar (USD). Monday’s action has extended moves to the downside clocking 0.5950 in early Tuesday. To be honest, the kiwi looks “down for the count” at the moment trading into thin air through 0.6000 was a major signal we could see bigger moves into the 0.50’s. It’s a busy week of releases for the pair with a slew of data to publish. The RBNZ official cash rate is expected to hold rates at 5.50% followed by Fed minutes Thursday. At some point the NZD will bounce higher, buyers of USD should grab the spikes.

Current Level: 0.5974
Resistance: 0.6360
Support: 0.5930
Last Weeks Range: 0.5974 – 0.6117

FX News

EURO/AUD Transfer

Mid last week, prices in the Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross fell through long term support at 0.5960 (1.6780) to reach 0.5930 (1.6860) at the close. Trading into Monday extended this run to 0.5910 (1.6930) before reversing to 0.5950 (1.6815) early Tuesday. If we look back 1 year on the chart to August 2022 we see a familiar pattern of lower highs followed by lower lows constantly repeating. Looking ahead we see Australian employment data Thursday with unemployment expected to tick higher from 3.6%.

Current Level: 1.6815
Resistance: 1.7200
Support: 1.6650
Last Weeks Range: 1.6685 – 1.6884

FX News

AUD/EURO Transfer

Mid last week, prices in the Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross fell through long term support at 0.5960 (1.6780) to reach 0.5930 (1.6860) at the close. Trading into Monday extended this run to 0.5910 (1.6930) before reversing to 0.5950 (1.6815) early Tuesday. If we look back 1 year on the chart to August 2022 we see a familiar pattern of lower highs followed by lower lows constantly repeating. Looking ahead we see Australian employment data Thursday with unemployment expected to tick higher from 3.6%.

Current Level: 0.5947
Resistance: 0.6000
Support: 0.5815
Last Weeks Range: 0.5922 – 0.5993

FX News

GBP/AUD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) came under pressure late in the week reversing early week gains from 0.5160 (1.9370) to close out the week at 0.5115 (1.9550). We are in our 5th week straight of lower highs and lower lows in the cross as the pair reaches an April 2020 low Monday extending declines. UK GDP printed at 0.5% in June vs 0.2% expected, up from May’s 0.1% showing promising growth led by industrial production. Today’s RBA minutes should give us more clues as to policy guidance and if the RBA has finished hiking. UK CPI y/y Thursday should print around a percent lower at 6.8%, certainly the release will define future interest moves. We expect further declines in the AUD this week.

Current Level: 1.9554
Resistance: 2.0200
Support: 1.9160
Last Weeks Range: 1.9330 – 1.9561

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) came under pressure late in the week reversing early week gains from 0.5160 (1.9370) to close out the week at 0.5115 (1.9550). We are in our 5th week straight of lower highs and lower lows in the cross as the pair reaches an April 2020 low Monday extending declines. UK GDP printed at 0.5% in June vs 0.2% expected, up from May’s 0.1% showing promising growth led by industrial production. Today’s RBA minutes should give us more clues as to policy guidance and if the RBA has finished hiking. UK CPI y/y Thursday should print around a percent lower at 6.8%, certainly the release will define future interest moves. We expect further declines in the AUD this week.

Current Level: 0.5114
Resistance: 0.5220
Support: 0.4950
Last Weeks Range: 0.5112 – 0.5173