Tuesday April 2
3:00am USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
Forecast 48.5
Previous 47.8
All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m
Forecast 0.50%
Previous 0.40%
Wednesday April 3
3:00am USD JOLTS Job Openings
Forecast 8.76M
Previous 8.86M Read more
AUD/GBP Transfer
The Australian Dollar (AUD) pushed past the 50-day moving average mid last week signalling it could extend higher against the British Pound (GBP). Posting up 0.5195 (1.9250) a fresh 4 week high the AUD did well to hold around here before falling back after the RBA Financial Stability Review published bringing back some weakness to 0.5160 (1.9370). This week’s action has been slow with moves pivoting around 0.5175 (1.9320) leading up to today’s CPI y/y release. Forecast is for a rise from 3.4% to 3.5% and more talk around “higher for longer” expected.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5174 GBPAUD 1.9327
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5167- 0.5187 GBPAUD 1.9276- 1.9353
AUD/USD Transfer
The Australian Dollar (AUD) consolidated around 0.6520 levels at the end of the week after moving back from 0.6630 after stronger than expected job numbers. The US Dollar (USD) remains in change fundamentally with risk sentiment factored in. Monday we saw 0.6555 before the currency slipped below the 50-day moving average to 0.6530 as it looks to retest 0.6500. Today’s CPI y/y for February should show a rise in inflation which will no doubt be a concern for the RBA who are ready to start cutting rates. A break below 0.6450 could reflect a further retest of the low at 0.6350.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6533
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6504- 0.6558
NZD/GBP Transfer
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) hasn’t been able to regain an edge against the British Pound (GBP) this week after dropping in value last week to 0.4760 (2.10). Prices in the cross have progressed through to 0.4755 (2.1035) into Tuesday trading just shy of last week’s low and September 2023 levels. No data publishing this week, last week’s poor NZ growth data should keep the kiwi on the back foot with the Bank of England (BoE) unlikely to lower rates any time soon.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4753 GBPNZD 2.1039
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4746- 0.4768 GBPNZD 2.0972- 2.1068
NZD/USD Transfer
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) slipped below the key 0.6000 level against the US Dollar (USD) late last week closing around the 0.5995 mark. Last week’s gloomy growth release is taking a toll on the kiwi, adding in some less than dovish speak from the Federal Reserve and the NZD has and could continue to struggle. Overnight we saw a rebound to 0.6030 but declined back to 0.6000 as I wrote. The importance of having orders in the market, this is a good example. Over the next day or so we will get a read on how markets are perceiving the strength in the NZD. The longer the cross trades around 0.6000 the harder the break to the downside could be.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6002
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5982- 0.6030
NZD/AUD Transfer
The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to go from strength to strength against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) with the cross reaching 0.9175 (1.0900) early this morning a fresh 3rd of November low. Pricing around 0.9140 (1.0940) is the next stop in the pair for support. Through this zone and we are targeting 0.9075 (1.1020) the lowest daily close since October 2022. On the topside any push back through 0.9245 (1.0820) would indicate a momentum shift. Australian CPI y/y for February prints later today and could strengthen the Aussie further if the data is higher than the 3.5% forecast.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9184 AUDNZD 1.0883
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9173- 0.9231 AUDNZD 1.0832- 1.0901
Calendar of Economic Releases
Tuesday March 26th
3:00am USD New Home Sales
Forecast 675K
Previous 664K
Wednesday March 27th
1:30am USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
Forecast 0.40%
Previous -0.40%
1:30am USD Durable Goods Orders m/m
Forecast 1.20%
Previous -6.20%
2:00am USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y
Forecast 6.60%
Previous 6.10%
3:00am USD CB Consumer Confidence
Forecast 106.9
Previous 106.7
3:00am USD Richmond Manufacturing Index
Forecast -5
Previous -5
1:30pm AUD CPI y/y
Forecast 3.50%
Previous 3.40%
9:00pm EUR Spanish Flash CPI y/y
Forecast 3.10%
Previous 2.80% Read more
AUD/USD Transfer
After falling to 0.6500 levels early in the week against the US Dollar (USD) the Australian Dollar (AUD) has put in a decent performance to bounce back to 0.6630 late Thursday. The currency running up off the back of big Dollar weakness post the Fed rate announcement. The Fed left rates unchanged at 5.50% with Fed chair Powell saying stronger growth and firmer than expected inflation has changed the expectation of timing with kicking off rate cuts which is predicted to start around midyear. The Aussie wasn’t able to hold gains around 0.6630 falling to 0.6560 into Friday on stronger than expected Australian Jobs data with unemployment dropping from 4.1% to 3.7% in February.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6574
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6503- 0.6633
AUD/GBP Transfer
The English Pound (GBP) made ground early week to 1.9500 (0.5130) against the Australian Dollar (AUD), however the Aussie fought back hard flying into Friday around 0.5195 (1.9250) areas. The RBA held rates at 4.35% as expected, dropping the value of the AUD due to a dovish stance. UK inflation printed at 3.4% vs 3.5% y/y for March supporting theory of pending cuts in May/June from the central bank. The Bank of England held rates overnight at 5.25% with an 8-1 vote with just one member preferring to cut by 0.25%. A retest of the 0.5210 (1.9200) area could imply further upside for the AUD in the coming days.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5187 GBPAUD 1.9278
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5126- 0.5196 GBPAUD 1.9245- 1.9506
NZD/GBP Transfer
It’s been a big couple of days for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) cross. UK CPI came in below expectation at 3.4% based on 3.5% forecast, with the Bank of England (BoE) saying they are getting close to cutting interest rates as early as May after the central bank kept rates on hold overnight at 5.25% in a 1-8 vote. With inflation expected to fall further in the coming months the BoE will start to show more flexibility. The NZ economy has formally dropped into recession with numbers showing a dip in growth in the December quarter of -0.1% after 0.1% was expected. The pair reached 0.4745 (2.1080) midweek before reversing to 0.4780 (2.0930) into Friday.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4773 GBPNZD 2.0951
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4744- 0.4792 GBPNZD 2.0868- 2.1079