FX News

FX News

GBP/NZD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) bounced off resistance at 0.4840 (2.0650) late Friday against the British Pound (GBP) to trade back at 0.4830 (2.0700) into Tuesday trading. The GBP looks to retest last week’s low at 0.4795 (2.0860), however UK CPI will dictate moves. Inflation is predicted to drop in May from 2.3% y/y to 2.0% making it the lowest rate since July 2021. Inflation has fallen massively since the Oct 2022 high of 11.1%. The Bank of England’s target of 2.0% might eventuate bringing about cuts later in the year.

Current Level: 2.0721
Resistance: 2.0920
Support: 2.0600
Last Weeks Range: 2.0632- 2.0858

FX News

NZD/GBP Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) bounced off resistance at 0.4840 (2.0650) late Friday against the British Pound (GBP) to trade back at 0.4830 (2.0700) into Tuesday trading. The GBP looks to retest last week’s low at 0.4795 (2.0860), however UK CPI will dictate moves. Inflation is predicted to drop in May from 2.3% y/y to 2.0% making it the lowest rate since July 2021. Inflation has fallen massively since the Oct 2022 high of 11.1%. The Bank of England’s target of 2.0% might eventuate bringing about cuts later in the year.

Current Level: 0.4826
Resistance: 0.4855
Support: 0.4780
Last Weeks Range: 0.4794- 0.4846

FX News

AUD/NZD Transfer

Price action in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) was flat last week pivoting around 1.0760 (0.9295) area. Monday the Aussie is looking to regain the edge pushing up to 1.0790 (0.9270) heading into Tuesday. Today’s RBA cash rate announcement should see the rate remain unchanged at 4.35% the fifth straight meeting with investors keen to hear from Governor Bullock as to her forecast for rate policy over the medium to long term. Surely she will come off the hawkish tone of late and start to consider bringing forward rate cuts from mid-2025. The risks of the economy falling into a recession is greater if they decide to hold rates too long. We see risks to the downside for the kiwi this week.

Current Level: 1.0779
Resistance: 1.0870
Support: 1.0720
Last Weeks Range: 1.0731 – 1.0796

FX News

NZD/AUD Transfer

Price action in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) was flat last week pivoting around 1.0760 (0.9295) area. Monday the Aussie is looking to regain the edge pushing up to 1.0790 (0.9270) heading into Tuesday. Today’s RBA cash rate announcement should see the rate remain unchanged at 4.35% the fifth straight meeting with investors keen to hear from Governor Bullock as to her forecast for rate policy over the medium to long term. Surely she will come off the hawkish tone of late and start to consider bringing forward rate cuts from mid-2025. The risks of the economy falling into a recession is greater if they decide to hold rates too long. We see risks to the downside for the kiwi this week.

Current Level: 0.9269
Resistance: 0.9330
Support: 0.9200
Last Weeks Range: 0.9262-0.9318

 

FX News

NZD/USD Transfer

Prices Monday in the US Dollar (USD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) cross extended lower off the 0.6140 area to reach solid support at the 0.6100 level before reversing towards 0.6130 in early Tuesday trading. NZIER (New Zealand Institute of Economic Research) issued its quarterly forecast yesterday highlighting a downgraded view of economic outlook to come over the coming months. Growth ending Mar 2025 has been revised lower to 0.6%. GDP for the first quarter 2024 prints Thursday and is coincidentally expected to come in at 0.1%- we can’t see it. Later in the week is US Manufacturing data. Topside moves for the kiwi could be limited.

Current Level: 0.6135
Support: 0.6100
Resistance: 0.6220
Last week’s range: 0.6098- 0.6220

 

FX News

FX Update: RBA in the spotlight

Market Overview

  • RBA rate decision today with a “neutral” bias likely.
  • New Zealand consumer confidence drops to 82.2 from 93.2 in first quarter 2024.
  • US Equities continue to close at record highs.
  • Crude Oil surges back above 80.00a barrel
  • Fitch have downgraded their world growth forecast for 2025 despite changes to central bank monetary policy.
  • We expect two rate cuts in 2024 by the Bank of England starting in August.
  • Chinese Retail Sales 3.7% vs 3.0% expected, prior 2.3%.
  • US NY Manufacturing Index -6.0 vs forecast -12.5, prior -15.6. NY Manufacturing shrinking less than expected.
  • The Euro (EUR) has been the strongest currency this week while the Japanese Yen (JPY) has been the weakest traded currency.
FX News

Calendar of Economic Releases

Tuesday June 18th
12:30am USD Empire State Manufacturing Index
Forecast -12.5
Previous -15.6
4:30pm AUD Cash Rate
Forecast 4.35%
Previous 4.35%
4:30pm AUD RBA Rate Statement

Wednesday June 19th
12:30am USD Core Retail Sales m/m
Forecast 0.20%
Previous 0.20%
12:30am USD Retail Sales m/m
Forecast 0.30%
Previous 0.00%
6:00pm GBP CPI y/y
Forecast 2.00%
Previous 2.30%

Thursday June 20
All Day USD Bank Holiday
10:45am NZD GDP q/q
Forecast 0.10%
Previous -0.10%
11:00pm GBP Monetary Policy Summary
11:00pm GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes
Forecast 0-2-7
Previous 0-2-7
11:00pm GBP Official Bank Rate
Forecast 5.25%
Previous 5.25% Read more

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

A range bound Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to bounce around levels at 0.6650, a game of two halves this week, improving to 0.6700 but unable to hold dropping back to 0.6630 Friday. Positive risk flow followed by a less than impressive US CPI read sent the Aussie higher as the fed tapered back cuts from 6 this year to 1 indicating the central bank was in no hurry to lower rates. The bank retaining its cash rate at 5.50% widely expected. Stiff support sits at 0.6600 on the chart with bullish continuation expected to continue from the low around 0.6400 mid-April.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6622

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6573- 0.6703

 

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

Early weeks pull back by the Australian Dollar (AUD) from 0.5170 (1.9340) to 0.5220 (1.9150) against the British Pound (GBP) continued into Thursday with improved risk trading and soft UK manufacturing data. The Pound has since recovered Friday to 0.5200 (1.9220) after the Federal Reserve leaned a little more hawkish. Aussie jobs data came in hot with nearly 40,000 people entering the workforce in May. Unemployment dipped to 4.0% as markets were expecting with any hope of the RBA cutting rates this year gone on these solid numbers. Next week’s docket sees RBA and BoE rate announcements.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5193 GBPAUD 1.9256

The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5170- 0.5223 GBPAUD 1.9146- 1.9342

 

 

 

FX News

NZD/GBP Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) came roaring back this week against the British Pound (GBP) from 0.4795 (2.0860) to reach 0.4850 (2.0630) regaining last week’s momentum as risk flow improved. UK labour market data came in mixed with unemployment rising to 4.4% from 4.3% the highest number since Oct 2021 while the number of paid payroll numbers declined 3,000 after 36,000 fell in April. We have a busy week of economic data next week with UK CPI y/y, Bank of England Cash Rate and NZ GDP to digest. Resistance on the chart in the pair is 0.4855 (2.0600) the 28 Feb high- a break past here would suggest further upside for the kiwi.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4821 GBPNZD 2.0742

The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4794- 0.4846 GBPNZD 2.0632- 2.0858