FX News

FX Update: RBNZ holds the key

Market Overview

  • The French election has ended in gridlock after strategic second round voting saw a bunch of left-wing parties won a total of 182 seats but short of a 289 majority. Marine Le Pen’s far right party fell short of a majority with 143 seats. Macron’s centrist party got 163 seats.
  • The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely predicted to leave the cash rate unchanged at 5.5% for the 8th straight meeting on Wednesday.
  • Canadian Unemployment Rate rises from 6.2% to 6.4% in June.
  • US Non-Farm Payroll came in lower than markets were expecting Friday with just 206k entering the workforce in June showing signs the economy is slowing. The unemployment rate jumped to 4.1% from 4.0% raising fresh speculation the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice this year starting in September.
  • With Australian Inflation rising lately from 3.6% to 4.0% this has prompted warnings that the Reserve Bank could raise rates at their September meeting.
  • The USD/JPY has had back-to-back “down” days as US employment data printed softer than expected. However, with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) unwilling to raise their interest rate and the central bank remaining dovish the rally back through 161.00 looks likely unless we see a BoJ intervention to support the JPY.
  • The British Pound (GBP) has outperformed all main board currencies this month with the US Dollar (USD) the worst traded currency.
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