FX News

FX News

AUD/NZD Transfer

US Equities have slumped causing fresh “risk off flows” of late- the Australian Dollar (AUD) faring better than the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) last week reaching 0.9180 (1.0890) and looking well supported into Tuesday trading. Australian Inflation prints tomorrow for May y/y with investors expecting a rise from 3.6% to 3.8% y/y. Currently however the cross sits at the 50% fib level of the recent long-term low at 0.9065 (1.1030) and high of 0.9330 (1.0720). If the AUD can breakout past this zone the next target would be 0.9130 (1.0950)

Current Level: 1.0869
Resistance: 1.1020
Support: 1.0720
Last Weeks Range: 1.0758 – 1.0890

FX News

NZD/AUD Transfer

US Equities have slumped causing fresh “risk off flows” of late- the Australian Dollar (AUD) faring better than the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) last week reaching 0.9180 (1.0890) and looking well supported into Tuesday trading. Australian Inflation prints tomorrow for May y/y with investors expecting a rise from 3.6% to 3.8% y/y. Currently however the cross sits at the 50% fib level of the recent long-term low at 0.9065 (1.1030) and high of 0.9330 (1.0720). If the AUD can breakout past this zone the next target would be 0.9130 (1.0950)

Current Level: 0.9195
Resistance: 0.9330
Support: 0.9075
Last Weeks Range: 0.9182-0.9295

 

FX News

NZD/USD Transfer

Despite The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pushing off support at the weekly open from 0.6100 levels against the US Dollar (USD) the cross still remains in a bear trend. Retesting the 50 day Moving Average at 0.6140 last night the pair fell back into Tuesday to 0.6120 as I write. On the calendar this week is key final US GDP predicted to print at 1.4% q/q in line with forecasts. Matariki Day NZ Holiday Friday could see a slow finish to the week.

Current Level: 0.6118
Support: 0.6080
Resistance: 0.6215
Last week’s range: 0.6096- 0.6147

 

FX News

FX Update: Aussie inflation the standout

Market Overview

  • Australian inflation expected to leap higher to 3.8% from 3.6% a 5-month high.
  • Fed member Daly said despite recent relief to inflation the Fed will have no choice but to keep interest rates higher for longer if price cooling doesn’t return to their 2.0% target.
  • The NZD could drift lower over the week to 0.6080 support.
  • New Zealand May Imports NZD 6.95B Exports NZD 7.1B
  • Incoming US data suggests the economy is predicted to slow in the middle months of 2024 with consumers more pessimistic amid elevated interest rates.
  • Manufacturing data out of France and Germany published down on expectations as new orders fall short.
  • As the month of June draws to a close the US Dollar (USD) has outperformed all main board currencies. A close second is the Australian Dollar, while the Japanese Yen (JPY) has been the weakest traded currency over June.
FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has had a bumper week against the English Pound (GBP) extending moves higher midweek to reach a fresh 4 week high of (0.5265) 1.8990 into Friday. The Bank of England interest rate remained unchanged at 5.25% overnight in a 7-2-member vote devaluing the GBP as investors suggest the central bank could start cutting rates from August. Certainly, early week CPI data confirms this with the UK inflation rate falling into the BoE target zone at 2.0% y/y from 2.3% in April. Meanwhile the RBA also released their cash rate which remains steady at 4.35% with the central bank leaving the door open for potential to hike rates further if price pressures remain high. The upside trend in the AUD should get stiff resistance towards 0.5290 (1.8900)- prices have not been this high since late January.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5256 GBPAUD 1.9025

The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5198- 0.5265 GBPAUD 1.8993- 1.9236

 

FX News

NZD/GBP Transfer

The Bank of England (BoE) left its key interest rate unchanged this morning at 5.25% and signalled they would start joining other central banks cutting interest rates later this year. The vote was 2-7 in favour of a “remain” while 2 members suggested a cut would have been more appropriate. The Pound lost value on the release falling from 0.4830 (2.0700) to 0.4845 (2.0640) but has since recovered to 0.4835 (2.0690) in morning trade. Overall, this week the pair has traded within recent ranges following a 4-week theme. Earlier UK inflation came in bang on expectations at 2.0% offering further excitement the BoE should start unwinding monetary policy in August or November. A push past resistance at 0.4855 (1.0600), the top of the 16-week move should see further upswing bias for the kiwi.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4832 GBPNZD 2.0695

The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4808- 0.4847 GBPNZD 2.0631- 2.0798

 

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has easily been the strongest performing currency on the main board this week rising to 0.6670 against the US Dollar (USD) cancelling most of last week’s losses. However, we still need a break above 0.6700 or a move below 0.6570 to really highlight a trend change either way from predominantly sideways moves over the past 5 weeks or so. The RBA cash rate remains unchanged at 4.35% as widely predicted, but the Reserve Bank warned of the potential for upticks to inflation and price pressures suggesting there was still a small chance of a hike. The RBA saying it will be some time yet before inflation is safely within their target band of between 2-3% – currently 3.6%. We expect the AUD/USD to retest 0.6700 over the coming days.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6656

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6584- 0.6678

 

 

 

FX News

NZD/USD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has managed to avoid dropping below long-term support at 0.6080 this week against the US Dollar (USD) retesting this area earlier in the week trading into Friday around 0.6120. NZ GDP came in hot Thursday at a surprising 0.2% against expectations of 0.1%- staggering, given we expected a negative result. However, this data is first quarter ending March and incoming data since has not been rosy. If second quarter GDP comes in above 0.0% the only conclusion would be someone is “doctoring the logbooks”. US Building Permits were a miss this morning with data suggesting new residential construction has dived 5.5% in May. US GDP prints next week.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6117

The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6096- 0.6147

 

 

FX News

NZD/AUD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has struggled over the week against a storming Australian Dollar (AUD), the cross reaching 0.9180 (1.0890) in one way traffic. The RBA decision saw the cash rate stay unchanged at 4.35% while the central bank hasn’t ruled out further rate hikes if price pressures remain elevated and stubborn. NZ GDP for the first quarter of 2024 ending March came in at 0.2% surprising markets after 0.1% was expected. We always thought even 0.1% was to high given recent economic events, but while data has worsened over May and June we expect the second quarter data to send NZ back into a recession. Aussie CPI next week holds our interest on the calendar with predictions this will print just below the current 3.6%.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9187 AUDNZD 1.087

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9181- 0.9294 AUDNZD 1.0759- 1.0891

 

 

FX News

EURO/AUD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has reversed some of the gains made last week falling back against the Euro (EUR) to 0.6150 (1.6260)  from 0.6195 (1.6150) in the aftermath of the European election results. We aren’t expecting any surprises in today’s RBA cash rate announcement with the central bank expected to keep the rate at 4.35%. Governor Bullock’s statement should give us further clues as to whether the RBA keep their policy rhetoric around inflation risks or change the ballgame.

Current Level: 1.6228
Resistance: 1.6400
Support: 1.6150
Last Weeks Range: 1.6148- 1.6384