AUD/GBP Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) retested the 5-week high at 0.5280 (1.8940) off the open against the British Pound (GBP) but has since surrendered giving back gains to 0.5245 (1.9070) this morning. The Pound initially coming under pressure from a dovish leaving Bank of England and softer UK PMI read. Risk off flow could see the Aussie get pushed lower this week, however Australian CPI could have the opposite effect. Markets are expecting May Inflation y/y to come in higher than the current 3.6% at 3.8%. This would be quite remarkable given the RBA are the only mainstream central bank still considering hikes.

Current Level: 0.5246
Support: 0.5200
Resistance: 0.5290
Last week’s range: 0.5198- 0.5275

AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) gapped lower off Monday’s open against the US Dollar (USD) but managed to recover to 0.6660 levels this morning. After the run up from the low at 0.6360 levels the pair has consolidated over the past 5 weeks pivoting around 0.6650. With the RBA monetary policy stance offering upside bias to the Aussie we expect momentum should remain for a while. Retesting the 0.6700 top of the recent range is our view this week, certainly a daily close above this level should signal further big picture trend north. Australian CPI y/y prints tomorrow with expectations around 3.8% ticking higher from 3.6%. This should bring about further “higher for longer” and possible hike speak from the RBA.

Current Level: 0.6654
Support: 0.6570
Resistance: 0.6700
Last week’s range: 0.6584- 0.6678

GBP/NZD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) traded back to the top of the recent range Monday to 0.4850 (2.0610) against the British Pound (GBP) before falling on risk flows Tuesday to 0.4830 (2.0710). The kiwi is still well above the moving average game line with bias to the downside. US Equities are trading at the bottom of the recent range with the Nasdaq down over 1% overnight also pulling on the NZD. Nuda on the calendar this week and a NZ holiday Friday should keep the cross reasonably unmoved.

Current Level: 2.0733
Resistance: 2.0900
Support: 2.0600
Last Weeks Range: 2.0610- 2.0798

NZD/GBP Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) traded back to the top of the recent range Monday to 0.4850 (2.0610) against the British Pound (GBP) before falling on risk flows Tuesday to 0.4830 (2.0710). The kiwi is still well above the moving average game line with bias to the downside. US Equities are trading at the bottom of the recent range with the Nasdaq down over 1% overnight also pulling on the NZD. Nuda on the calendar this week and a NZ holiday Friday should keep the cross reasonably unmoved.

Current Level: 0.4823
Resistance: 0.4855
Support: 0.4785
Last Weeks Range: 0.4808- 0.4852

AUD/NZD Transfer

US Equities have slumped causing fresh “risk off flows” of late- the Australian Dollar (AUD) faring better than the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) last week reaching 0.9180 (1.0890) and looking well supported into Tuesday trading. Australian Inflation prints tomorrow for May y/y with investors expecting a rise from 3.6% to 3.8% y/y. Currently however the cross sits at the 50% fib level of the recent long-term low at 0.9065 (1.1030) and high of 0.9330 (1.0720). If the AUD can breakout past this zone the next target would be 0.9130 (1.0950)

Current Level: 1.0869
Resistance: 1.1020
Support: 1.0720
Last Weeks Range: 1.0758 – 1.0890

NZD/AUD Transfer

US Equities have slumped causing fresh “risk off flows” of late- the Australian Dollar (AUD) faring better than the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) last week reaching 0.9180 (1.0890) and looking well supported into Tuesday trading. Australian Inflation prints tomorrow for May y/y with investors expecting a rise from 3.6% to 3.8% y/y. Currently however the cross sits at the 50% fib level of the recent long-term low at 0.9065 (1.1030) and high of 0.9330 (1.0720). If the AUD can breakout past this zone the next target would be 0.9130 (1.0950)

Current Level: 0.9195
Resistance: 0.9330
Support: 0.9075
Last Weeks Range: 0.9182-0.9295

 

NZD/USD Transfer

Despite The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pushing off support at the weekly open from 0.6100 levels against the US Dollar (USD) the cross still remains in a bear trend. Retesting the 50 day Moving Average at 0.6140 last night the pair fell back into Tuesday to 0.6120 as I write. On the calendar this week is key final US GDP predicted to print at 1.4% q/q in line with forecasts. Matariki Day NZ Holiday Friday could see a slow finish to the week.

Current Level: 0.6118
Support: 0.6080
Resistance: 0.6215
Last week’s range: 0.6096- 0.6147

 

FX Update: Aussie inflation the standout

Market Overview

  • Australian inflation expected to leap higher to 3.8% from 3.6% a 5-month high.
  • Fed member Daly said despite recent relief to inflation the Fed will have no choice but to keep interest rates higher for longer if price cooling doesn’t return to their 2.0% target.
  • The NZD could drift lower over the week to 0.6080 support.
  • New Zealand May Imports NZD 6.95B Exports NZD 7.1B
  • Incoming US data suggests the economy is predicted to slow in the middle months of 2024 with consumers more pessimistic amid elevated interest rates.
  • Manufacturing data out of France and Germany published down on expectations as new orders fall short.
  • As the month of June draws to a close the US Dollar (USD) has outperformed all main board currencies. A close second is the Australian Dollar, while the Japanese Yen (JPY) has been the weakest traded currency over June.

AUD/GBP Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has had a bumper week against the English Pound (GBP) extending moves higher midweek to reach a fresh 4 week high of (0.5265) 1.8990 into Friday. The Bank of England interest rate remained unchanged at 5.25% overnight in a 7-2-member vote devaluing the GBP as investors suggest the central bank could start cutting rates from August. Certainly, early week CPI data confirms this with the UK inflation rate falling into the BoE target zone at 2.0% y/y from 2.3% in April. Meanwhile the RBA also released their cash rate which remains steady at 4.35% with the central bank leaving the door open for potential to hike rates further if price pressures remain high. The upside trend in the AUD should get stiff resistance towards 0.5290 (1.8900)- prices have not been this high since late January.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5256 GBPAUD 1.9025

The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5198- 0.5265 GBPAUD 1.8993- 1.9236

 

NZD/GBP Transfer

The Bank of England (BoE) left its key interest rate unchanged this morning at 5.25% and signalled they would start joining other central banks cutting interest rates later this year. The vote was 2-7 in favour of a “remain” while 2 members suggested a cut would have been more appropriate. The Pound lost value on the release falling from 0.4830 (2.0700) to 0.4845 (2.0640) but has since recovered to 0.4835 (2.0690) in morning trade. Overall, this week the pair has traded within recent ranges following a 4-week theme. Earlier UK inflation came in bang on expectations at 2.0% offering further excitement the BoE should start unwinding monetary policy in August or November. A push past resistance at 0.4855 (1.0600), the top of the 16-week move should see further upswing bias for the kiwi.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4832 GBPNZD 2.0695

The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4808- 0.4847 GBPNZD 2.0631- 2.0798