GBP/NZD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has been the worst performing main board currency over the past week evident in the NZD/GBP cross with the British Pound (GBP) improving off 2.1200 (0.4715) Monday to reach 2.1490 (0.4655) earlier today. NZ CPI for the second quarter ending June came in at 0.4% compared to 0.6% expected. Year on year dropped to 3.3% from 4.0%, all but confirming two rate cuts in 2024 by the RBNZ. We expect the NZD to remain under pressure into the weekly close.

Current Level: 2.1353
Resistance: 2.1570
Support: 2.0600
Last Weeks Range: 2.0808- 2.1239

NZD/GBP Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has been the worst performing main board currency over the past week evident in the NZD/GBP cross with the British Pound (GBP) improving off 2.1200 (0.4715) Monday to reach 2.1490 (0.4655) earlier today. NZ CPI for the second quarter ending June came in at 0.4% compared to 0.6% expected. Year on year dropped to 3.3% from 4.0%, all but confirming two rate cuts in 2024 by the RBNZ. We expect the NZD to remain under pressure into the weekly close.

Current Level: 0.4683
Resistance: 0.4855
Support: 0.4635
Last Weeks Range: 0.4708- 0.4806

AUD/NZD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extending its run against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD)  to reach 0.8985 (1.1130) this morning. This signifies a fresh 2024 low in the pair as the NZD comes under further pressure. NZ CPI published at 0.4% after 0.6% was expected taking down the year-on-year inflation to 3.3% from 4.0%. The kiwi has edged higher off the release pushing to around 0.9000 (1.1110) – 0.9010 (1.1010) but could meet pressure at 0.9025 (1.1080). Australian unemployment tomorrow should release at 4.1% up from 4.0%.

Current Level: 1.1071
Resistance: 1.1170
Support: 1.1000
Last Weeks Range: 0.8995 – 0.9121

NZD/AUD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extending its run against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to reach 0.8985 (1.1130) this morning. This signifies a fresh 2024 low in the pair as the NZD comes under further pressure. NZ CPI published at 0.4% after 0.6% was expected taking down the year-on-year inflation to 3.3% from 4.0%. The kiwi has edged higher off the release pushing to around 0.9000 (1.1110) – 0.9010 (1.1010) but could meet pressure at 0.9025 (1.1080). Australian unemployment tomorrow should release at 4.1% up from 4.0%.

Current Level: 0.9023
Resistance: 0.9090
Support: 0.8950
Last Weeks Range: 1.0963-1.1117

 

NZD/USD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) made up ground against the US Dollar (USD) late in the week bouncing off 0.6070 levels to close a healthy 0.6170. Markets turned risk off over the weekend after the assignation attempt of ex-president Trump sending US yields higher. The kiwi traded lower through 0.6100 back towards 0.6040 as we kicked into Tuesday. NZ CPI for the second quarter ending June has come in at 0.4% from 0.6% in the previous quarter. Year on year has also been trimmed from 4.0% to 3.3% weaker than estimates of 3.5%. The NZD has rallied off the news strangely to the 0.6065 zone but will most likely settle lower over the day.

Current Level: 0.6074
Support: 0.6050
Resistance: 0.6150
Last week’s range: 0.6064- 0.6152

 

FX Update: RBNZ holds the key

Market Overview

  • NZ CPI for the second quarter ending June came in at 0.4% on estimate following 5 straight down quarters. First quarter 2024 was 0.6%.
  • Chinese GDP year ending June has published at 4.7% well lower than estimates of 5.1%.
  • Federal Reserve rate cuts are predicted to start in September with a small minority expecting they will start at their next meeting on 1 August.
  • US Treasury yields jumped higher after Trump assassination attempt. NZ Dollar (NZD) weaker as markets turned “risk off”.
  • NZ PMI (Manufacturing Index) fell to 41.1 for June down from 47.2 in May,  most importantly showing the 15th straight month of contraction in the sector.
  • US Retail Sales came in flat at 0.0% higher than -0.3% forecast for the month of June.
  • The British Pound (GBP) has been the best performing currency this month with the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) the worst traded currency to date for July.

Calendar of Economic Releases

Monday July 15th
All Day JPY Bank Holiday
2:00pm CNY GDP q/y 5.10% 5.30%
2:00pm CNY Industrial Production y/y 4.90% 5.60%

Tuesday July 16th
12:30am USD Empire State Manufacturing Index -5.5 -6
4:00am USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks

Wednesday July 17th
12:30am CAD CPI m/m 0.10% 0.60%
12:30am CAD Median CPI y/y 2.70% 2.80%
12:30am CAD Trimmed CPI y/y 2.80% 2.90%
12:30am CAD Common CPI y/y 2.40% 2.40%
12:30am USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.10% -0.10%
12:30am USD Retail Sales m/m -0.20% 0.10%
10:45am NZD CPI q/q 0.50% 0.60%
6:00pm GBP CPI y/y 1.90% 2.00% Read more

NZD/USD Transfer

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decided to leave their cash rate unchanged at 5.5% as widely predicted for the 8th straight meeting. It was the less than hawkish tone by Governor Orr which sent the kiwi reeling against the US Dollar (USD) falling from 0.6125 to 0.6065 post the release Wednesday. US CPI overnight declined to 3.0% for June y/y from 3.3% coming in below expectations of 3.1%. Fed’s Powell quick to reiterate the job is not done yet with managing inflation with more work to do to combat future stubborn inflation saying he would like to see the number below 2.0% before rate cuts are applied. We see a potential cut in September which could put pressure on the greenback. Next week’s key data comes in the form of NZ CPI for the second quarter expected to print at 3.6% down from 4.0%.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6086

The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6064- 0.6251

AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended its run higher against the US Dollar (USD) reaching 0.6790 this morning but failed to hold this level slipping back to 0.6755 at smoko. US Inflation was softer than expected weakening the USD overnight with June’s print at -0.1% compared to 0.1% expected. Year on year also ticked lower to 3.0% from 3.3% and below the predicted 3.1%. Bets have risen that the Federal Reserve will cut their interest rate in September. The Aussie has also done well of late from recovering commodity and equity prices. With the RBA one of the only G10 nations to not instigate rate cuts we could see further rises in the currency.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6763

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6723- 0.6797

 

NZD/GBP Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has fallen away hard this week against the English Pound (GBP) reaching 0.4710 (2.1230) early this morning after a dovish RBNZ read spooked buyers. RBNZ met Wednesday and left the cash rate at 5.5% as predicted, however the central bank was less hawkish than expected with odds increasing of not 1 but 2 rate cuts later this year predicted. A November cut is almost fully priced in but another earlier cut on the 14 August is now a 50/50 chance. The UK economy grew at 0.4% against 0.2% estimates in May also boosting the GBP. The cross sits at a 10-week low, a push past 0.4705 (2.1260) would signal a fresh yearly low going back to October 2023 levels.

 

The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4712 GBPNZD 2.1222

The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4710- 0.4804 GBPNZD 2.0813- 2.1233