NZD/EURO Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to fall against the Euro (EUR) pushing past long-term support Monday at 0.5520 (1.8120) the kiwi has clocked 0.5500 (1.8215) this morning a fresh 2024 low. The European Union (ECB) left their key interest rate unchanged at 4.25% last week in a dovish decision however the hot German producer prices have helped boost the EUR. We could see further declines in the NZD to chart support at 0.5450 (1.8350) the 2020 covid low.

Current Level: 0.5486
Support: 0.5540
Resistance: 0.5450
Last week’s range: 0.5222- 0.5616

GBP/NZD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is struggling to gain any momentum against the British Pound (GBP) post last week’s NZ CPI release. The kiwi has clocked further losses reaching 0.4625 (2.1620) in early Tuesday clearing the support and level at 0.4630 (2.1590) – the low from May 2016. This date signifying the massive shift in the cross-post Brexit voting. No data this week in the pair should indicate any moves will be based on big picture themes.

Current Level: 2.1640
Resistance: 2.2000
Support: 2.1212
Last Weeks Range: 2.1197- 2.1491

NZD/GBP Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is struggling to gain any momentum against the British Pound (GBP) post last week’s NZ CPI release. The kiwi has clocked further losses reaching 0.4625 (2.1620) in early Tuesday clearing the support and level at 0.4630 (2.1590) – the low from May 2016. This date signifying the massive shift in the cross-post Brexit voting. No data this week in the pair should indicate any moves will be based on big picture themes.

Current Level: 0.4621
Resistance: 0.4715
Support: 0.4545
Last Weeks Range: 0.4653- 0.4717

AUD/NZD Transfer

For about a week now the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) cross has been pivoting around the 0.9000 (1.1100) zone in the wake of Mixed Aussie jobs data and falling NZ CPI. As we mentioned it’s becoming tough to get a read on the NZD/AUD and directions from here, certainly with the RBA considering hikes on August 6th we may see the cross trend much lower into the 89’s with pressure remaining to the downside. We see no tier one date on the economic docket this week suggesting we could see more of the same.

Current Level: 1.1101
Resistance: 1.1150
Support: 1.1030
Last Weeks Range: 1.1053 – 1.1151

NZD/AUD Transfer

For about a week now the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) cross has been pivoting around the 0.9000 (1.1100) zone in the wake of Mixed Aussie jobs data and falling NZ CPI. As we mentioned it’s becoming tough to get a read on the NZD/AUD and directions from here, certainly with the RBA considering hikes on August 6th we may see the cross trend much lower into the 89’s with pressure remaining to the downside. We see no tier one date on the economic docket this week suggesting we could see more of the same.

Current Level: 0.8999
Resistance: 0.9065
Support: 0.8970
Last Weeks Range: 0.8967 – 0.9047

 

NZD/USD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended declines Monday against the US Dollar (USD) falling to 0.5970 as the fallout from Biden’s presidential race exit hits risk. Equities ticked higher surprisingly bouncing back from a series of losses, the kiwi not going along for the ride on this occasion. It’s a slow week of data for the cross with only US advance GDP to decipher with expectations the USD might get a push higher if we see a rise from May’s 1.4%. Support on the chart is 0.5880, the low from early May.

Current Level: 0.5977
Support: 0.5880
Resistance: 0.6060
Last week’s range: 0.6005- 0.6109

 

FX Update: NZD underperforming

Market Overview

• US Equities turned down to close the week with the NZD struggling to remain above 0.6000. Early Monday prices revealed “risk” is back on as confidence returns with the NZD and AUD both bouncing higher.
• June Japanese CPI 2.8% y/y vs 2.9% expected.
• US President Biden has removed himself from the presidential race for the 2024 election – Not entirely unexpected. All 50 Democratic US State Chairmans are backing Vice President Kamala Harris to be the next Presidential nominee. The nomination is still a few weeks away from being decided. US Presidential Election odds- Trump 61%, Harris 31%
• New Zealand Trade Balance for June is a 699M surplus compared with 54M surplus in May.
• British Retail Sales dips by 1.2% in June following a rise of 2.9% in May.
• Canadian Retail Sales slumps as high interest rates keep shoppers away.
• The Japanese Yen (JPY) was the best performing currency last week with the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) the worst traded currency.

Calendar of Economic Releases

Monday July 22nd
1:15pm CNY 1-y Loan Prime Rate
Forecast 3.45%
Previous 3.45%
1:15pm CNY 5-y Loan Prime Rate
Forecast 3.95%
Previous 3.95%

Wednesday July 24th
2:00am USD Existing Home Sales
Forecast 3.99M
Previous 4.11M
2:00am USD Richmond Manufacturing Index
Forecast -7
Previous -10
7:15pm EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI
Forecast 45.7
Previous 45.4
7:15pm EUR French Flash Services PMI
Forecast 49.7
Previous 49.6
7:30pm EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI
Forecast 44.1
Previous 43.5
7:30pm EUR German Flash Services PMI
Forecast 53.3
Previous 53.1
8:00pm EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI
Forecast 46
Previous 45.8
8:00pm EUR Flash Services PMI
Forecast 52.9
Previous 52.8
8:30pm GBP Flash Manufacturing PMI
Forecast 51.1
Previous 50.9
8:30pm GBP Flash Services PMI
Forecast 52.5
Previous 52.1 Read more

AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) received a minor lift yesterday after jobs data came in mixed. The Aussie pushed up to 0.6740 from 0.6720 with unemployment publishing at 4.1% as expected. However, the number of employed people in June rose 50k keeping a lid on more upside. Also of note is recent Chinese data and falling commodity prices have affected the AUD. The Fed will look to start cutting interest rates in September and again at their December meeting which will lend a hand to AUD buyers. Heading into Friday trading the pair trades down at 0.6705 having retested 0.6700 support.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6693

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6693- 0.6787

NZD/GBP Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to underperform this week against the British Pound (GBP) falling briefly to 0.4655 (2.1490) Wednesday recovering slightly into Friday to 0.4670 (2.1415). UK CPI turned in sticky rising to 2.0% from 1.9% y/y in June, the Bank of England refraining from talk of cutting rates and will likely hesitate unwinding monetary policy with ongoing inflation pressures. We have already seen the Pound grow from 0.4810 (2.08) levels over the past fortnight, we predict a retest of 0.4630 (2.1585) the multi-year low.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4663 GBPNZD 2.1445

The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4652- 0.4718 GBPNZD 2.1193- 2.1493