FX News

Market Overview

Key Points:

• Worldwide coronavirus cases surpass 266.565 million with over 5.275 million official deaths.
• New Zealand has 6350 active cases of coronavirus with 136 new cases today and 0 deaths. Meanwhile, the Australian State of New South Wales reported 208 new cases and 0 deaths yesterday with Victoria reporting 1073 new cases with 6 deaths
• RBNZ deputy governor expects the unemployment rate to drift up to 4.0%
• Bank of England’s Broadbent said he is unsure of how omicron will affect his interest rate decisions with no clear answers at the moment
• 3 reasons why we may see an improvement this week in risk- omicron may be less severe than the delta variant, Fed hawkishness, Friday’s dip to risk may be an overreaction
• ECB’s Lagarde- It’s very unlikely to see rate hikes in 2022
• The CAD is the strongest currency this week with the Japanese Yen the weakest on the main board Read more

Key Points:

Worldwide coronavirus cases surpass 264.365 million with over 5.248 million official deaths.
New Zealand has 6100 active cases of coronavirus with 174 new cases today and 0 deaths. Meanwhile, the Australian State of New South Wales reported 337 new cases and 0 deaths yesterday with Victoria reporting 1188 new cases with 11 deaths
Auckland pubs, restaurants and cafes open the doors to the double vaccinated as the country enters the traffic light system
The US and EU have issued a joint statement saying they have strong concerns over China’s actions in the South and East China seas and the Taiwan Strait
The JPY is the strongest currency this week with the Australian Dollar the weakest on the main board
If the omicron variant fades we should see a marked improvement in the NZD

Market Overview

Worldwide coronavirus cases surpass 260.178 million with over 5.197 million official deaths.
New Zealand has 5710 active cases of coronavirus with 185 new cases today and 0 deaths. Meanwhile, the Australian State of New South Wales reported 150 new cases and 0 deaths yesterday with Victoria reporting 1061 new cases with 4 deaths
Federal Reserve chairman Powell says higher inflation will “linger” well into the New Year pushing up pandemic related supply demand
US Military raises alert to DEFCON 4
Early evidence of the new covid variant Omicron shows risks are high and that future outbreaks of the variant could hold severe consequences Read more

Tuesday 30/11
8am, CAD, BOC Gov Macklem Speaks
9:05am, USD, Fed Chair Powell Speaks

Wednesday 01/12
2:30am, CAD, GDP m/m
Forecast: 0.0%
Previous: 0.4%
4am, USD, Fed Chair Powell Testifies
1:30pm, AUD, GDP q/q
Forecast: -2.5%
Previous: 0.7% Read more

Key Points:

• Worldwide coronavirus cases surpass 260.178 million with over 5.197 million official deaths.

• New Zealand has 5213 active cases of coronavirus with 178 new cases today and 1 death. Meanwhile, the Australian State of New South Wales reported 276 new cases and 0 deaths yesterday with Victoria reporting 1196 new cases with 3 deaths
• In the latest moves to curb he covid pandemic in Europe France will reinforce their borders as covid infections rise. Austria has locked down and Germany is about to
• After the latest Fed Minutes we now know that several members prefer a swifter taper, watch policy start to change over the coming months. We expect the Fed to hike 3 times next year
• A new covid variant B11529 has been identified in Botswana with a few cases identified, labelled by virologist Tom Peacock at the Imperial College of London as “really awful”
• The USD is the strongest currency this week and the New Zealand Dollar is the weakest on the main board

Market Overview

• Worldwide coronavirus cases surpass 258.298 million with over 5.173 million official
deaths.
• New Zealand has 4614 active cases of coronavirus with 205 new cases today and 2 deaths. Meanwhile, the Australian State of New South Wales reported 180 new cases and 1 death yesterday with Victoria reporting 1029 new cases with 3 deaths
• Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has been re-elected, his second term will end February 2026
• ECB’s Knot has said he sees no indication that inflation will keep going up past expectations
• We see a 30% chance that the RBNZ will raise rates by 50 points tomorrow
• China sees rate cut of 25 points by the end of 2021
• Australia flash OPMI for November – Index 58.5 vs expected 60.7- Services 55.0 vs 52.7 expected
• The AUD is the strongest and the Japanese Yen is the weakest main board currency this week Read more

Tuesday 23/11
All Day, JPY, Bank Holiday
9:30pm, EUR, German Flash Manufacturing PMI
Forecast 56.6
Previous 57.8
9:30pm, EUR, German Flash Services PMI
Forecast 51.4
Previous 52.4

Wednesday 24/11
2:00pm, NZD, Official Cash Rate
Forecast 0.75%
Previous 0.50%
2:00pm, NZD, RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
2:00pm, NZD, RBNZ Rate Statement
3:00pm, NZD, RBNZ Press Conference Read more

Key Points:

Worldwide coronavirus cases surpass 256.218 million with over 5.145 million official deaths.
New Zealand has 4163 active cases of coronavirus with 167 new cases today and 2 deaths. Meanwhile, the Australian State of New South Wales reported 262 new cases and 3 deaths yesterday with Victoria reporting 1007 new cases with 12 deaths
NY Fed President Williams sees a broader based lift to inflation, with the Fed supposed to be providing a healthy economy and low stable inflation – he says they are going backwards
US jobless claims 268k vs 260k predicted
Standard & Poor’s says it’s highly likely Evergrande will default on its repayment obligations
Barclays bank expects global growth to expand by 6.0% this year and 4.4% in 2022
Chinese slowing GDP expectations for 2021 are now forecast to be around 7.8% with 4.7% in 2022 mainly based on their ‘zero tolerance” to covid which has hurt activity- any potential fading out of covid will have massive upside for 2022
After being invited to the Beijing Winter Olympics President Biden and his officials have declined the visit

Market Overview

Key Points:

• Worldwide coronavirus cases surpass 254.384 million with over 5.119 million official deaths.
• New Zealand has 3056 active cases of coronavirus with 173 new cases today and 0 deaths. Meanwhile, the Australian State of New South Wales reported 165 new cases and 1 deaths yesterday with Victoria reporting 860 new cases with 5 deaths
• The resurgence of covid 19 in Japan has dented the Japanese economy by around 1.0% in the third quarter of 2021- y/y this is a contraction of 3.0%. Pre covid growth is expected to return (+1.0%) in the first quarter of 2022
• Chinese Industrial Production rises from to 3.5% in October from September’s 3.1%
• UK House prices have posted its biggest monthly fall since January
• Massive rises in energy throughout the eurozone weighs on growth forecasts
• Canada’s rising property market took on more heat rising 8.6% from September to October, y/y 18.2%
• Climate talks in Glasgow (COP26) have agreed on a 1.5 degree cap with a last minute compromise with the phase down of coal production.
• China has warned Australian forces to “back off” in their defence of Taiwan saying they could come under “heavy attack” Read more

Monday 15/11
3pm, CNY, Retail Sales y/y
Forecast: 3.80%
Previous: 4.40%

Tuesday 16/11
2:30am, USD, Empire State Manufacturing Index
Forecast: 20.4
Previous: 19.8
1:30pm, AUD, Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
3:30pm, AUD, RBA Gov Lowe Speaks Read more