GBP/NZD Transfer

A slow start to the week in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) cross has seen the GBP push up slightly on the kiwi to 2.1320 (0.4690) in thin UK holiday trading. The GBP will be targeting last week’s low at 0.4635 (1.1570) with fundamentals favouring further declines in the pair. It’s a very light economic calendar this week with just ANZ Business Confidence Wednesday expected to release poorly. It’s tough going for GBP buyers at current levels, we suggest to look for spikes in an otherwise bear currency.

Current Level: 2.1345
Resistance: 2.1600
Support: 2.0900
Last Weeks Range: 2.1228 – 2.1585

NZD/GBP Transfer

A slow start to the week in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) cross has seen the GBP push up slightly on the kiwi to 2.1320 (0.4690) in thin UK holiday trading. The GBP will be targeting last week’s low at 0.4635 (1.1570) with fundamentals favouring further declines in the pair. It’s a very light economic calendar this week with just ANZ Business Confidence Wednesday expected to release poorly. It’s tough going for GBP buyers at current levels, we suggest to look for spikes in an otherwise bear currency.

Current Level: 0.4685
Resistance: 0.4785
Support: 0.4630
Last Weeks Range: 0.4632 – 0.4710

AUD/NZD Transfer

Bouncing around usual ranges the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) traded into Tuesday at 0.9190 (1.0880). Breaking below 0.9200 (1.0870) support the Aussie now eyes 0.9175 (1.0900) the late July low. Australian Retail Sales came in hot at 0.5% in July up from June’s -0.8% allowing the AUD to perk up. Looking ahead we have Australian CPI m/m which is forecast to print lower than June’s 5.4% at 5.2%, anything higher than 5.4% will be dangerous for the NZD. Buyers of AUD should consider here.

Current Level: 1.0872
Resistance: 1.0930
Support: 1.0750
Last Weeks Range: 1.0778 – 1.08712

NZD/AUD Transfer

Bouncing around usual ranges the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) traded into Tuesday at 0.9190 (1.0880). Breaking below 0.9200 (1.0870) support the Aussie now eyes 0.9175 (1.0900) the late July low. Australian Retail Sales came in hot at 0.5% in July up from June’s -0.8% allowing the AUD to perk up. Looking ahead we have Australian CPI m/m which is forecast to print lower than June’s 5.4% at 5.2%, anything higher than 5.4% will be dangerous for the NZD. Buyers of AUD should consider here.

Current Level: 0.9189
Resistance: 0.9300
Support: 0.9150
Last Weeks Range: 0.9198 – 0.9278

 

NZD/USD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) settled around 0.5900 against the US Dollar (USD) late last week where it still sits into Tuesday trading. Risk assets were boosted slightly by rises in equity indices temporarily, amid weakened global demand and a backdrop of poor sentiment. The kiwi sits dangerously close to the precipice with no real support below 0.5850, all the way to 0.5550 zones. Fed talk at the Jackson Hole event confirmed nothing we didn’t already know with Fed chair Powell keeping his cards close to his chest reiterating he was non-committal. While the Fed has pencilled in one more hike to 5.75% it remains far from certain whether they will actually do it. Non-Farm Payroll releases Friday.

Current Level: 0.5911
Resistance: 0.6100
Support: 0.5880
Last Weeks Range: 0.5884 – 0.5984

FX Update: Risk assets hold ground

Market Overview

Key Points:

• Bank of America is forecasting 75 points of rate cuts in 2024, the first around June.
• US authorities are becoming increasingly sure that Wagner boss Prigozhin has died in the recent plane crash.
• Former US president Donald Trump’s trial for election interference has been set for 4th March 2024
• China has ditched the last of their travel restrictions with travellers not having to take a test 48 hours prior to entry into the country.
• The US Dollar (USD) has been the strongest currency over the month of August with the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) underperforming, the worst performer.

Major Announcements last week:
• US Home Sales q/q -1.0% vs -1.6% previous
• UK Manufacturing drops to 6 month low
• UoM Consumer Sentiment 69.5 vs 71.2
• French Manufacturing 46.4 in July vs 42.8 predicted

Calendar of Releases

Monday August 28th
1:30pm AUD Retail Sales m/m
Forecast 0.20%
Previous -0.80%
All Day GBP Bank Holiday

Tuesday August 29th
7:40pm AUD RBA Gov-Designate Bullock Speaks

Wednesday August 30th
1:00am USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y
Forecast -1.50%
Previous -1.70%
2:00am USD CB Consumer Confidence
Forecast 116.2
Previous 117
2:00am USD JOLTS Job Openings
Forecast 9.70M
Previous 9.58M
1:30pm AUD CPI y/y
Forecast 5.20%
Previous 5.40%
All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m
Forecast 0.30%
Previous 0.30%
7:00pm EUR Spanish Flash CPI y/y
Forecast 2.50%
Previous 2.30% Read more

NZD/AUD Transfer

As we said earlier the Australian Dollar (AUD) came under pressure, but it wasn’t until late Wednesday we saw a shift off 0.9210 (1.0860) levels back to 0.9235 (1.0830). NZ Retail Sales disappointed in the June quarter coming in at -1.0% vs -0.4% the 3rd consecutive decline representing consumers leaving money in their pocket, the biggest contributor being food and beverage with the sector struggling. On the whole, the pair remains well within recent ranges. Next week’s economic docket looks super thin, more of the same looks to be the likely theme.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9225    AUDNZD 1.0833

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9192- 0.9266    AUDNZD 1.0792- 1.0879

AUD/GBP Transfer

Detrimental news out of China this week pulled back risk currencies of recent moves, the Australian Dollar (AUD) no exception coming off 0.5200 (1.9230) levels to make 0.5175 (1.9330) early Friday. To be fair on the Pound, UK manufacturing wasn’t exactly a bumper read helping the pull back in the GBP. Recent rate hikes doing the job of sparking a renewed downturn in business activity, the question remains – is it enough to deter the Bank of England (BoE) from raising rates again.?. Buying GBP may want to consider.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5092    GBPAUD 1.9638

The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5018- 0.5101    GBPAUD 1.9603- 1.9925

AUD/USD Transfer

After 5 weeks of downside moves in the Australian Dollar (AUD), US Dollar (USD) the cross took a breather trading just above the weekly open of 0.6402 at 0.6414 as I write. At one point trading up at 0.6485 post a positive day in equities and recovering metal prices. US manufacturing has been a talking point over the past couple of days amid a lack of other data, the index releasing at 47.0 in August compared to 49 in July the 4th consecutive month. The US economy looks to be nearing the crossroads with stagnation a real prospect with worsening spending increasing fears of pending recession. It would take a decent fundamental shift to move the cross off its downside axis, we pick further lower over the coming days/weeks.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6415

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6387- 0.6488