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Economic Releases Calendar

Tuesday June 25th
5:30am CAD BOC Gov Macklem Speaks

Wednesday June 26th
12:30am CAD CPI m/m
Forecast 0.30%
Previous 0.50%
12:30am CAD Median CPI y/y
Forecast 2.60%
Previous 2.60%
12:30am CAD Trimmed CPI y/y
Forecast 2.80%
Previous 2.90%
12:30am CAD Common CPI y/y
Forecast 2.60%
Previous 2.60%
1:00am USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y
Forecast 7.00%
Previous 7.40%
2:00am USD CB Consumer Confidence
Forecast 100
Previous 102
2:00am USD Richmond Manufacturing Index
Forecast -3
Previous 0
1:30pm AUD CPI y/y
Forecast 3.80%
Previous 3.60% Read more

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Monday April 29th
All Day JPY Bank Holiday
All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m
Forecast 0.60%
Previous 0.40%

Tuesday April 30th
1:30pm CNY Manufacturing PMI
Forecast 50.3
Previous 50.8

Wednesday May 1
12:30am CAD GDP m/m
Forecast 0.30%
Previous 0.60%
12:30am USD Employment Cost Index q/q
Forecast 1.00%
Previous 0.90%
2:00am USD CB Consumer Confidence
Forecast 104
Previous 104.7
10:45am NZD Employment Change q/q
Forecast 0.30%
Previous 0.40%
10:45am NZD Unemployment Rate
Forecast 4.30%
Previous 4.00%
All Day CNY Bank Holiday
All Day EUR French Bank Holiday
All Day EUR German Bank Holiday
All Day EUR Italian Bank Holiday Read more

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NZD/USD Transfer

Inflation data will be key this week to determining the next move by the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), US Dollar (USD). With the kiwi travelling close to long term lows recently around the 0.6030 zone it’s an important week, will the NZD finally fall below pivotal 0.6000 or maintain enough buyer support and rally back to levels around 0.6400 seen a couple of weeks back. Certainly, NZ inflation expectations for the 3rd quarter could determine if we see a last-ditch hike by the RBNZ to bring down inflation. US CPI y/y is predicted to rise to 3.3% from 3.0%, the first time since June 2022, which may decide if the US economy falls into recession.

Current Level: 0.6105
Resistance: 0.6390
Support: 0.6065
Last Weeks Range: 0.6058 – 0.6224

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NZD/AUD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) trades at a 10-week low this morning around 0.9125 levels. Yesterday’s Aussie CPI release took price from 0.9235 (1.0830) to 0.9125 (1.0960) as fourth quarter inflation published much higher than markets were anticipating. The Q result 1.9% vs 1.6% pushed the year-on-year figure to 7.8% off 7.3% boosted by rising costs in food, fuel and new dwelling construction. NZ last quarter CPI also printed, but came in moderately above expectations not causing a fuss. The year-on-year number remains at an elevated 7.2%. Interestingly this is down on the 7.5% inflation the RBNZ predicted in November which could mean a less aggressive approach at the 22nd Feb meeting. We may see the current momentum stall out towards 0.9090 (1.1000) as heavy support is pictured on the chart. Looking ahead we have NZ employment numbers Wednesday.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9115 AUDNZD 1.0956
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9121- 0.9322 AUDNZD 1.0727- 1.0963

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NZD/AUD Transfer:

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pushed higher Monday extending last week’s run through to 0.9260 (1.0800) levels against the Australian Dollar (AUD). Optimism around the re-opening of China has fallen with China reporting its first deaths in over 6 months. This has impacted on risk and importantly Chinese industrial production and ultimately the Redback. The RBNZ are predicted to deliver a 75-point hike Wednesday taking the cash rate to 4.25%, it’s possible the recent rally in the kiwi is pricing in the move. This morning’s Trade Balance data came in light with imports at 8.27B and exports at 6.14B in October creating a shortfall of 2.1B. The good news is that Dairy continues to lead the way in exports with Milk Powder, Butter and Cheese up 34%. This time last week with prices around 0.9090, current levels represent good buying in AUD.

Current Level: 0.9225 (1.0830)
Resistance: 0.9345 (1.1000)
Support: 0.9090 (1.0700)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9088-0.9229 (1.0835-1.1003)

FX News, Uncategorized

AUD/GBP

The Australian Dollar (AUD) monstered the British Pound (GBP) off the open yesterday reaching a whopping 0.5640 (1.7730) a 12-month high as conflicts in the Russian war put considerable pressure on the Pound and the UK economy. A corrective move early this morning saw a reversal in the cross to 1.7900 as European leaders said they would hold out on Sanctions of Russian energy exports preferring an alternative strategy to reduce Russian imports which Russia is a major global exporter. Upwardly revised UK Manufacturing PMI hit a 7-month high may have contributed to cushioning the Pound somewhat. Iron Ore and commodities continue to skyrocket with Iron ore trading at 1.56 por tonne a 6-month high. Looking ahead we have a slow week of economic data with just RBA Governor Lowe speaking tomorrow. In the meantime, we should continue to see wild “risk” swings continue. Read more

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FX Update

Worldwide coronavirus cases surpasses 13.935M with over 591,000 deaths officially reported.

Risk sentiment was positive during midweek trading sessions off the back of prospects of a vaccine contributing to the good mood. Moderna reported that their vaccine produces neutralising antibodies in chosen patients who received two doses, these were similar to results seen in coronavirus patients who had recovered. The results are from an initial 45 sample humans with new trials to begin late this month on 30,000 healthy people. They will compare vaccine results to placebo in patients between the ages of 18-55. If results are significant the vaccine would then be mass produced. Contributing to the positive mood was Merkel who commented that Germany is prepared to compromise to reach a deal for the European Recovery Fund. EU members are scheduled to meet in person on Friday and Saturday to work out a compromise on the multimillion dollar stimulus package.

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Economic Releases
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FX Update

Worldwide coronavirus cases surpasses 9.7M with over 490,000 deaths officially reported.

The RBNZ left their cash rate unchanged at 0.25% Wednesday at their policy meeting confirming again they would be leaving it for some time. The central bank left their bond purchase program also unchanged at 60B but Orr said they are prepared to provide additional stimulus when necessary. The question is whether the bank has enough stimulus in place as the country prepares for further uncertain economic times. Highlighting the pressures on export earnings due to the appreciation of the NZD implied the government could be preparing to intervene by increasing the current 60B support package in combination with selling the New Zealand Dollar. All said and done the government maintains the view that the current balance of risks remain firmly placed to the downside. Post statement the NZD plunged by around 1.0% across a range of crosses before regaining some losses during overnight sessions.  

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