NZD

A slow start to the week in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) cross has seen the GBP push up slightly on the kiwi to 2.1320 (0.4690) in thin UK holiday trading. The GBP will be targeting last week’s low at 0.4635 (1.1570) with fundamentals favouring further declines in the pair. It’s a very light economic calendar this week with just ANZ Business Confidence Wednesday expected to release poorly. It’s tough going for GBP buyers at current levels, we suggest to look for spikes in an otherwise bear currency.

Current Level: 0.4685
Resistance: 0.4785
Support: 0.4630
Last Weeks Range: 0.4632 – 0.4710

Bouncing around usual ranges the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) traded into Tuesday at 0.9190 (1.0880). Breaking below 0.9200 (1.0870) support the Aussie now eyes 0.9175 (1.0900) the late July low. Australian Retail Sales came in hot at 0.5% in July up from June’s -0.8% allowing the AUD to perk up. Looking ahead we have Australian CPI m/m which is forecast to print lower than June’s 5.4% at 5.2%, anything higher than 5.4% will be dangerous for the NZD. Buyers of AUD should consider here.

Current Level: 1.0872
Resistance: 1.0930
Support: 1.0750
Last Weeks Range: 1.0778 – 1.08712

Bouncing around usual ranges the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) traded into Tuesday at 0.9190 (1.0880). Breaking below 0.9200 (1.0870) support the Aussie now eyes 0.9175 (1.0900) the late July low. Australian Retail Sales came in hot at 0.5% in July up from June’s -0.8% allowing the AUD to perk up. Looking ahead we have Australian CPI m/m which is forecast to print lower than June’s 5.4% at 5.2%, anything higher than 5.4% will be dangerous for the NZD. Buyers of AUD should consider here.

Current Level: 0.9189
Resistance: 0.9300
Support: 0.9150
Last Weeks Range: 0.9198 – 0.9278

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) settled around 0.5900 against the US Dollar (USD) late last week where it still sits into Tuesday trading. Risk assets were boosted slightly by rises in equity indices temporarily, amid weakened global demand and a backdrop of poor sentiment. The kiwi sits dangerously close to the precipice with no real support below 0.5850, all the way to 0.5550 zones. Fed talk at the Jackson Hole event confirmed nothing we didn’t already know with Fed chair Powell keeping his cards close to his chest reiterating he was non-committal. While the Fed has pencilled in one more hike to 5.75% it remains far from certain whether they will actually do it. Non-Farm Payroll releases Friday.

Current Level: 0.5911
Resistance: 0.6100
Support: 0.5880
Last Weeks Range: 0.5884 – 0.5984

Market Overview:

Key Points:

• The Jackson Hole Symposium gets under way in Wyoming attended by central bankers and financial participants around the world.
• Canadian Retail Sales edged up 0.1% in June from 0.0% expectations confirming a rebound in activity.
• Eurozone services data comes in weak easing concerns over whether the ECB may raise rates in September. ECB’s governing council Nagal says the labour market is strong and it’s too early to consider halting hikes. He also said he doesn’t expect a recession in the near future.
• Japanese CPI for August comes in at 2.9% after 2.0% was predicted.
• High US inflation has put pressure on the Fed with current policy, this in turn is increasing pressure on US industry with a high USD currency. These companies who rely on US profits and foreign receipts are struggling.
• The Australian Dollar (AUD) is the strongest currency this week with the British Pound (GBP) the worst performer.

The Australian Dollar (AUD), British Pound (GBP) entered Tuesday around the weekly opening level of 0.5030 (1.9880) after flatlining mid last week. The Aussie still looks to be struggling post ongoing Chinese economic fears and a higher UK inflation read. Precious metal prices also have the AUD on the backfoot along with a disappointing wage report. This week’s UK manufacturing Wednesday is predicted to come in light which may give the Aussie investors more to cheer about.

Current Level: 1.6989
Resistance: 1.7095
Support: 1.6275
Last Weeks Range: 1.6736 – 1.7063