NZD

This cross has been choppy over the past 4 weeks, but the overall trend has been NZD supportive with price coming from 0.4580 (2.1840) late October to 0.4655 (2.1490) this morning. NZ Retail Sales came in at -0.1% for the September quarter, while we have been unable to work out how this is possible. According to our retail clients they are battling to break even – sentiment is certainly not represented by a  -0.1% read. Tomorrow’s RBNZ should cut half a cent to 4.25% – possibly 75 points to 4.00%. We expect to see 4.00% with further slippage in the NZD.

Current Level: 2.1510
Resistance: 2.1780
Support: 2.1430
Last Weeks Range: 2.1407- 2.1625

This cross has been choppy over the past 4 weeks, but the overall trend has been NZD supportive with price coming from 0.4580 (2.1840) late October to 0.4655 (2.1490) this morning. NZ Retail Sales came in at -0.1% for the September quarter, while we have been unable to work out how this is possible. According to our retail clients they are battling to break even – sentiment is certainly not represented  by a  -0.1% read. Tomorrow’s RBNZ should cut half a cent to 4.25% – possibly 75 points to 4.00%. We expect to see 4.00% with further slippage in the NZD.

Current Level: 0.4649
Resistance: 0.4665
Support: 0.4590
Last Weeks Range: 0.4624- 0.4671

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) clocked a fresh low of 0.8950 (1.1178) late Friday against the Australian Dollar (AUD) the lowest weekly close since October 2022. Monday’s action has seen the kiwi fight back to 0.9000 (1.1110) in early Tuesday, this area now acting as resistance on the chart. This week’s key data prints tomorrow with Australian CPI m/m followed by the RBNZ cash rate release just after midday, both could offer plenty of price moves. Most of the RBNZ cut of 50 points has been priced in, however if the central bank cut interest rates by 75 points to 4.00% we could get further downside moves in the NZD.

Current Level: 1.1125
Resistance: 1.1220
Support: 1.1110
Last Weeks Range: 1.0999 – 1.1179

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) clocked a fresh low of 0.8950 (1.1178) late Friday against the Australian Dollar (AUD) the lowest weekly close since October 2022. Monday’s action has seen the kiwi fight back to 0.9000 (1.1110) in early Tuesday, this area now acting as resistance on the chart. This week’s key data prints tomorrow with Australian CPI m/m followed by the RBNZ cash rate release just after midday, both could offer plenty of price moves. Most of the RBNZ cut of 50 points has been priced in, however if the central bank cut interest rates by 75 points to 4.00% we could get further downside moves in the NZD.

Current Level: 0.8978
Resistance: 0.8915
Support: 0.9000
Last Weeks Range: 0.9017 – 0.9099

It was a quiet Monday in markets, the US Dollar (USD) dropping in value as profit taking took place. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pushing higher off 0.5835 gapping to 0.5870 before settling around 0.5850. Late Friday we saw a fresh 2024 low of 0.5815. On the calendar we expect the RBNZ to cut the interest rate from 4.75% to either 4.25% or 4.00%. We are in the minority camp suggesting a cut of 75 points is needed with unemployment rising and businesses continuing to struggle. Those looking at buying USD on a spike should consider in this bear market. 

Current Level: 0.5844
Support: 0.5770
Resistance: 0.6000
Last week’s range: 0.5816 – 0.5920

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and the British Pound (GBP) have both tracked lower against a basket of currencies over the week, the kiwi faring slightly better over the GBP reaching 0.4670 (2.1425) Wednesday before giving back gains to 0.4635 (2.1570) and roaring back into Friday to 0.4655 (2.1480). UK inflation jumped to 2.3% from 1.7% in October pushed up almost entirely by energy tariffs. A slightly slower pace of rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE) is now priced in offering thought we may see the Pound higher in coming weeks, especially against the kiwi as we look ahead for the RBNZ to cut rate 50-75 points next week.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4651 GBPNZD 2.1500

The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4624- 0.4667 GBPNZD 2.1423- 2.1625

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) returned lower off 0.5900 levels midweek against the US Dollar (USD) dropping back to 0.5860 into early Friday. The kiwi struggling post US Election results as the currency hovers around long term lows. Drops through support at 0.5770 and the 2022 low at 0.5500 now comes into the picture. A run through 0.5500 which could only be 1 RBNZ cut away (next week) and it’s a freefall into the abyss. US Manufacturing early tomorrow is predicted to come in solid.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.5854

The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5835- 0.5921

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) finally broke below 0.9000 (1.1110) this morning against the Australian Dollar (AUD), it’s been a long time coming as we forecast this to happen weeks ago. The cross has been sitting between a range of 0.9090 (1.1000) and 0.9020 (1.1090) for 7 weeks straight so a move outside “status quo” has been welcomed. A retest of 0.8970 (1.1150) on the chart looks a possibility the October 2022 low. Looking ahead we have the RBNZ Wednesday with markets predicting a drop to the cash rate of 50 points with a decent chance of a 75-point cut to 4.00%. We are in the 75-point camp.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.8991 AUDNZD 1.1010

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.8950- 0.9090 AUDNZD 1.1000- 1.1172

The EUR has suffered the same indignations as all of the ‘Non-Reserve’ currencies and fallen sharply since the US Presidential Election. The Eurozone has been living in recessionary conditions for a long time now and attempts to stimulate the economy, through rate cuts, have yet to show any progress. The cross rate with the NZD has moved little as the USD dominates and drives all currencies, ensuring cross rate volatility remains low.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR .5570 EURNZD 1.7953

The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR EURNZD

The UK economy has been showing signs of life, since the new Labour Government has assumed power, but much of this is unfolding historical data from the previous Governments economic settings. The UK has slammed the economy with a ‘tax and spend’ budget, which is starting to bear fruit, with GDP numbers contracting, once again. The green-shoots have been nipped in the bud. UK CPI will be released this coming week and if this rises, then the spending portion of the budget, will have unleashed inflation once again. The cross rate with the NZD Dollar has been steady, as falls have been similar in size.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP .4650 GBPNZD 2.1505

The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP .4595-.4650 GBPNZD