NZD

Heavy recessionary economic conditions prevail in the UK and Europe, as high interest rates, blow-out deficit/debt spending and war continues. Inflation has been tumbling lower across Europe as the economic recession spreads across the economic zone. The war in Eastern Europe adds instability and threatens Geo-Political and economic conditions. Close attention will be paid to the coming PMI data set to be released, which will give insight to the current economic conditions.

Current Level: 0.5632
Support: 0.5510
Resistance: 0.5680
Last week’s range: 0.5553 – 0.5661

The GBP has been under pressure due to the rising reserve, although the cross remains relatively stable. The UK is experiencing recessionary economic conditions, as in Europe, but this has been accompanied by higher inflation that remains persistent. The Bank of England will keep interest rates ‘higher for longer’ in order to combat the destructive inflation. This may lend short-term support to the GBP.

Current Level: 2.0480
Resistance: 2.0815
Support: 2.0455
Last Weeks Range: 2.0473- 2.0805

The GBP has been under pressure due to the rising reserve, although the cross remains relatively stable. The UK is experiencing recessionary economic conditions, as in Europe, but this has been accompanied by higher inflation that remains persistent. The Bank of England will keep interest rates ‘higher for longer’ in order to combat the destructive inflation. This may lend short-term support to the GBP.

Current Level: 0.4850
Resistance: 0.4900
Support: 0.4810
Last Weeks Range: 0.4806 – 0.4883

The RBNZ spiked the NZD/AUD cross rate back to above 0.9300 after falling sharply in October. The RBA raised rates at their Melbourne Cup meeting, under cover, but signalling inflation remains a serious issue in the economy. The cross is likely to have a trading range of 0.9200 to 0.9400 as fluctuations persist in monetary policy of Central Banks on both sides of the Tasman.

Current Level: 1.0705
Resistance: 1.0890
Support: 1.0690
Last Weeks Range: 1.0692 – 1.0850

The RBNZ spiked the NZD/AUD cross rate back to above 0.9300 after falling sharply in October. The RBA raised rates at their Melbourne Cup meeting, under cover, but signalling inflation remains a serious issue in the economy. The cross is likely to have a trading range of 0.9200 to 0.9400 as fluctuations persist in monetary policy of Central Banks on both sides of the Tasman.

Current Level: 0.9292
Resistance: 0.9400
Support: 0.9250
Last Weeks Range: 0.9205 – 0.9234

The RBNZ decision to leave rates unchanged was expected, but the accompanying narrative was surprisingly ‘hawkish’. The Central Bank indicated that there could be further rate rises if inflation persists. This added upside to the NZD, which spiked up to 0.6200, although settled as the reserve continues to rally. The short-term attraction of higher interest rates support the currency, only until risk is considered.

Current Level: 0.6135
Resistance: 0.6230
Support: 0.6045
Last Weeks Range: 0.6053 – 0.6197

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was the strongest currency last week across the main board- evident when we look at progress made on the Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) chart. The Aussie extended last week’s gains Monday reaching 0.6040 (1.6560), a 3-week high as “risk” mood improved. Also of note was ECB’s Muller- suggesting the central bank may not need to raise rates further, other ECB members have been less optimistic with inflation not yet where it needs to be with outlook tilted to the downside.

Current Level: 1.6572
Resistance: 1.6810
Support: 1.6395
Last Weeks Range: 1.6596 – 1.6760

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was the strongest currency last week across the main board- evident when we look at progress made on the Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) chart. The Aussie extended last week’s gains Monday reaching 0.6040 (1.6560), a 3-week high as “risk” mood improved. Also of note was ECB’s Muller- suggesting the central bank may not need to raise rates further, other ECB members have been less optimistic with inflation not yet where it needs to be with outlook tilted to the downside.

Current Level: 0.5233
Resistance: 0.5280
Support: 0.5170
Last Weeks Range: 0.5215 – 0.5259

US Dollar (USD) weakness continues post the US Thanksgiving holiday, risk currencies getting another boost from this. The Australian Dollar (AUD) clawed back early losses from 0.5215 (1.9180) to 0.5235 (1.9100) this morning rebounding off the 50% fib key level. Aussie CPI y/y prints tomorrow and should reflect a small drop from 5.6% to around 5.2%. The new RBA chief Michele Bullock has been hawkish of late with inflation concerns, will she keep the same line?

Current Level: 1.9109
Resistance: 1.9340
Support: 1.8940
Last Weeks Range: 1.9013 – 1.9175

The Euro (EUR) wasn’t able to hold the 1.8050 (0.5540) level Monday after a bumper start to the week, the kiwi recovering to 0.5575 (1.7940) as risk returned and the greenback weakened. The Euro extended last week’s losses post ECB comments from Muller suggesting they do not need to keep tightening policy further. ECB’s Nagel said they were not yet where they wanted to be on inflation. The key standout this week is the RBNZ rate announcement. It’s widely expected the central bank will retain the 5.5% but attention will be on further clues as to when cuts could kick in.

Current Level: 1.7962
Resistance: 1.8250
Support: 1.7600
Last Weeks Range: 1.790 – 1.8214