NZD

US Retail Sales was a disappointment overnight rising less than expected with a 0.6% print vs 0.8% for March. Equities came off dragging the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) from 0.6160 to 0.6120 in early Friday. Earlier US CPI came in at 3.2% y/y higher than the 3.1% forecast with the Federal Reserve now expected to start cutting rates around midyear. Looking ahead we have the Fed Funds Rate Thursday and NZ GDP q/q. Prices in the cross may drift lower into the close.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6124

The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6120- 0.6183

Rhetoric around the RBA keeping interest rates high until 2025 are doing the rounds and holding the Australian Dollar (AUD) “Bid” against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). Lower highs followed by lower lows is still the theme on the charts with the Aussie moving into the late 0.92’s challenging late January lows. Governor Bullock says the fight to tame inflation is far from over, the longer it stays above 3% the harder it becomes to massage it lower. Price support at 0.9260 (1.0800) is fast coming into view, a break below here and 0.9130 (1.0950) becomes a chance in the medium term. On the docket next week, RBA cash rate and unemployment rate announcements.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9309 AUDNZD 1.0738

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9295- 0.9359 AUDNZD 1.0684- 1.0758

Lower highs followed by lower lows represents 2024 moves in the Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross to date. The trend last week supports further weakness in the Aussie after a bounce off 0.6080 (1.6450) multiple support line to current prices at 0.6055 (1.6515) as I write. A retest of last week’s low is the likely scenario, especially given the breakthrough the 50-day moving average. We have no significant data printing in the pair until NZ GDP on the 21st of March.

Current Level: 1.6531
Resistance: 1.6600
Support: 1.6455
Last Weeks Range: 1.6439- 1.6743

Lower highs followed by lower lows represents 2024 moves in the Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross to date. The trend last week supports further weakness in the Aussie after a bounce off 0.6080 (1.6450) multiple support line to current prices at 0.6055 (1.6515) as I write. A retest of last week’s low is the likely scenario, especially given the breakthrough the 50-day moving average. We have no significant data printing in the pair until NZ GDP on the 21st of March.

Current Level: 0.6049
Resistance: 0.6080
Support: 0.6025
Last Weeks Range: 0.5972- 0.6083

Big moves in the Australian Dollar (AUD), British Pound (GBP) saw swings from 0.5110 (1.9560) to 0.5190 (1.9270) last week post Aussie GDP release. UK construction came in hot but failed to boost the GBP. Also of note, Chinese import data came in above expectation, the Aussie reacting positively.UK GDP for January prints Wednesday with reports pointing to a rise of 0.2% up from December’s -0.1%. Growth overall has been rising since October with the jobless rate falling. A positive report would ease concerns of a sharp recession. We think a retest of 0.5185 (1.9280) is on the cards this week.

Current Level: 1.9394
Resistance: 1.9500
Support: 1.9290
Last Weeks Range: 1.9273- 1.9568

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) fell to 0.5600 (1.7870) late last week- nearly reaching the yearly low against the Euro (EUR) before recovering towards the close to 0.5640 (1.7730) levels. The ECB kept their interest rate at 4.5% Friday as widely expected for the 4th time in a row with ECB policy makers in favour of a June rate cut. Discussion of a second rate cut in July was also floated. Although inflation targets are broadly inline the ECB said they would need additional data to steer them in the right direction- wage pressures remain key.

Current Level: 1.7727
Resistance: 1.7820
Support: 1.7630
Last Weeks Range: 1.7623- 1.7862

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) fell to 0.5600 (1.7870) late last week- nearly reaching the yearly low against the Euro (EUR) before recovering towards the close to 0.5640 (1.7730) levels. The ECB kept their interest rate at 4.5% Friday as widely expected for the 4th time in a row with ECB policy makers in favour of a June rate cut. Discussion of a second rate cut in July was also floated. Although inflation targets are broadly inline the ECB said they would need additional data to steer them in the right direction- wage pressures remain key.

Current Level: 0.5641
Support: 0.5610
Resistance: 0.5670
Last week’s range: 0.5596- 0.5674

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) closed the week lower at 0.4805 (2.0800) against the British Pound (GBP) after making it through to 0.4840 (2.0660) earlier. Not a lot of late data wise has been going on in the pair with flows following broader based USD moves. The standout this week is monthly UK GDP for January. With the cross failing to push past 0.4785 (2.0900) last week we favour moves towards 0.4855 (2.0600) over the week.

Current Level: 2.0790
Resistance: 2.0915
Support: 2.0530
Last Weeks Range: 2.0662- 2.0912

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) closed the week lower at 0.4805 (2.0800) against the British Pound (GBP) after making it through to 0.4840 (2.0660) earlier. Not a lot of late data wise has been going on in the pair with flows following broader based USD moves. The standout this week is monthly UK GDP for January. With the cross failing to push past 0.4785 (2.0900) last week we favour moves towards 0.4855 (2.0600) over the week.

Current Level: 0.4810
Resistance: 0.4870
Support: 0.4780
Last Weeks Range: 0.4781- 0.4839

The weakness in the NZD/AUD rate continues, with the cross rate falling to 0.9270. This remains historically high, but has fallen considerably from early 2024 highs, of 0.9450. The cross rate this week will be largely determined by the RBA, in their latest meeting, to be held today, 19 th March. The RBA will almost certainly leave rates unchanged, but the narrative will be crucial. If the RBA remains ‘hawkish’, we could see some more downside, on the NZD cross-rate.

Current Level: 1.0725
Resistance: 1.0850
Support: 1.0650
Last Weeks Range: 1.0713- 1.0784