NZD

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) sits in a familiar pocket this morning against the US Dollar (USD) after making moves higher yesterday but falling back to 0.6100 areas. Fed minutes suggested the central bank may not be done with their tightening cycle and could still hike rates clearly more hawkish than we were expecting creating USD buying. Earlier the RBNZ kept rates on hold at 5.5% as widely expected due to stubborn domestic inflation, Orr delivering a shock hawkish tone saying the bank remains concerned with domestic pressures and capacity constraints in the economy. Then kiwi spikes half a cent post the release before returning lower. Rate cuts could be now delayed towards the second quarter of 2025. We may see a little NZD strength into the close.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6088

The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6082- 0.6151

The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded to a whisker of the yearly open Monday reaching 0.6170 (1.6212) against the Euro (EUR) before reversing to 0.6145 (1.6270) early Tuesday. Euro financial stability has improved with recession fears waning recently, but markets still remain exposed to geopolitical ongoing risks making the EUR a volatile beast. French and German manufacturing releases later in the week could surprise favourably for the euro.

Current Level: 1.6281
Resistance: 1.6370
Support: 1.6200
Last Weeks Range: 1.6221- 1.6368

The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded to a whisker of the yearly open Monday reaching 0.6170 (1.6212) against the Euro (EUR) before reversing to 0.6145 (1.6270) early Tuesday. Euro financial stability has improved with recession fears waning recently, but markets still remain exposed to geopolitical ongoing risks making the EUR a volatile beast. French and German manufacturing releases later in the week could surprise favourably for the euro.

Current Level: 0.6142
Resistance: 0.6170
Support: 0.6110
Last Weeks Range: 0.6109- 0.6164

The Australian Dollar (AUD) broke below the 2-week recent range this morning against the British Pound (GBP) to 0.5250 (1.9055) targeting the 50% retracement area around 0.5235 (1.9100). All eyes this week will be on UK CPI y/y with predictions the number will drop from 3.2% to 2.1% which will make or break a potential June rate cut. Currently we see rate cut chances at 50/50.  The bank’s target range is 2.0% so we are going to get close, buckle in. UK Retail Sales is later in the week but could surprise lower.

Current Level: 1.9058
Resistance: 1.9200
Support: 1.8890
Last Weeks Range: 1.8906- 1.9034

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reached 0.5650 (1.7700) Monday after outperforming the Euro last week from 0.5570 (1.7960) levels. The cross then bounced off key fib 61.8 resistance retreating towards 0.5620 (1.7790) midday Tuesday as risk currencies start to lose favour. Eurozone data in the form of decent French unemployment and ECB’s Schnabel also giving the Euro a boost saying cutting rates in June and July should be treated with care. Wednesday’s RBNZ should hold interest rates at 5.5% with talk over rate cut timings key.

Current Level: 1.7793
Resistance: 1.7900
Support: 1.7700
Last Weeks Range: 1.7715 – 1.7964

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reached 0.5650 (1.7700) Monday after outperforming the Euro last week from 0.5570 (1.7960) levels. The cross then bounced off key fib 61.8 resistance retreating towards 0.5620 (1.7790) midday Tuesday as risk currencies start to lose favour. Eurozone data in the form of decent French unemployment and ECB’s Schnabel also giving the Euro a boost saying cutting rates in June and July should be treated with care. Wednesday’s RBNZ should hold interest rates at 5.5% with talk over rate cut timings key.

Current Level: 0.5620
Support: 0.5585
Resistance: 0.5650
Last week’s range: 0.5566- 0.5644

The New Zealand Dollar has outperformed the English Pound (GBP) 3 weeks straight from the yearly low at (0.4705) 2.1257 to trade to 0.4840 (2.0650) late in the week. Into Tuesday we have seen a little weakness in the kiwi with prices back around 0.4810 (2.0800) level. It’s a busy economic docket this week for the pair with RBNZ Wednesday before UK CPI. We don’t expect any change from 5.5% but the rhetoric around timing of cuts could be interesting. UK inflation year on year is expected to come in at 2.1% from 3.2% which will set the tone for the upcoming rate release and a potential cut in the mid-June central bank rate publication. We think a retest at 0.4785 (2.0900) looks possible.

Current Level: 2.0820
Resistance: 2.0900
Support: 2.0650
Last Weeks Range: 2.0650- 2.0892

The New Zealand Dollar has outperformed the English Pound (GBP) 3 weeks straight from the yearly low at (0.4705) 2.1257 to trade to 0.4840 (2.0650) late in the week. Into Tuesday we have seen a little weakness in the kiwi with prices back around 0.4810 (2.0800) level. It’s a busy economic docket this week for the pair with RBNZ Wednesday before UK CPI. We don’t expect any change from 5.5% but the rhetoric around timing of cuts could be interesting. UK inflation year on year is expected to come in at 2.1% from 3.2% which will set the tone for the upcoming rate release and a potential cut in the mid-June central bank rate publication. We think a retest at 0.4785 (2.0900) looks possible.

Current Level: 0.44803
Resistance: 0.4840
Support: 0.4785
Last Weeks Range: 0.4786- 0.4842

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) outperformed the Australian Dollar (AUD) for the second week running reaching 0.9180 (1.0890) to start the week. The kiwi perhaps a little overbought at these levels falling lower to 0.9150 (1.0930) early this morning. Chinese data at the end of the week came in mixed affecting the AUD with the economy’s recovery looking bumpy. The main even this week is the RBNZ cash rate and statement with expectations that we should see a remain at 5.5%. Talk around the timing of when the central banks first hike could be interesting, we expect a dovish slant and pending cuts to be bought forward. Pressure this week will be on the kiwi.

Current Level: 1.0920
Resistance: 1.1030
Support: 1.0860
Last Weeks Range: 1.0890- 1.0996