NZD

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has edged higher over the week through 0.9150 levels into Friday against the Australian Dollar (AUD) reaching 0.9168 (1.0910) last week’s high. As we speculated the midweek Aussie buzz ended with pull backs in equity markets and poor local data leading declines, however with the hawkish RBA stance reiterated in this week’s central bank minutes we should see the AUD improve in the midterm. NZ Retail Sales this morning came in at -1.2% slightly worse than expected, the kiwi unmoved over the release. On the economic docket next week, we have Australian CPI y/y which could tick marginally lower from 3.8%

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9159 AUDNZD 1.0913

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9064- 0.9168 AUDNZD 1.0907- 1.1032

Risk tone supported the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to late Wednesday’s 0.4730 (2.1145) against the British Pound (GBP) before pulling back to 0.4680 (2.1360) early Friday. NZ Retail Sales came in light at -1.2% for the month of June vs forecasts of -1.0% and down on May’s 0.5%. UK Manufacturing has showed promising signs with the sector expanding in August with an uptick in new orders and activity. This marks the 4th consecutive rise and the fastest pace in over 2 years. Fib setups suggest we could see a retest of the 0.4715 (2.12) area in the coming days.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4692 GBPNZD 2.1312

The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4673- 0.4730 GBPNZD 2.1141- 2.1395

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to rally against the Euro (EUR) extending moves 2 straight weeks to 0.6075 (1.6460), a 4% shift off early August levels. Earlier eurozone trade surplus surprised to the topside helping to boost the EUR for a bit before the Aussie retained momentum. On the calendar this week is eurozone manufacturing and the Jackson Hole Symposium which could throw up surprises.

Current Level: 1.6474
Resistance: 1.6700
Support: 1.6200
Last Weeks Range: 1.6522- 1.6747

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to rally against the Euro (EUR) extending moves 2 straight weeks to 0.6075 (1.6460), a 4% shift off early August levels. Earlier eurozone trade surplus surprised to the topside helping to boost the EUR for a bit before the Aussie retained momentum. On the calendar this week is eurozone manufacturing and the Jackson Hole Symposium which could throw up surprises.

Current Level: 0.6070
Resistance: 0.6170
Support: 0.5990
Last Weeks Range: 0.5971- 0.6052

The Australian Dollar AUD) finished the week well recovering off 0.5130 (1.9500) area to close at 0.5155 (1.9400) before extending gains Monday to reach 0.5185 (1.9290) as it gathers momentum into Tuesday. Data out in the UK hasn’t been completely convincing of late with GDP for the month of July coming in lower at 0.6% and Retail Sales also disappointing at 0.5% for July. In contrast the RBA has no plans to cut rates with upside risk to inflation while closely correlated commodity prices continue to extend gains. UK Manufacturing is Thursday. 0.5290 (1.8900) is the next target.

Current Level: 1.9305
Resistance: 1.9750
Support: 1.9100
Last Weeks Range: 1.9318- 1.9523

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) returned to 0.5520 (1.8120) from 0.5440 (1.8390) after last week’s RBNZ cash rate cut from 5.5% to 5.25% as risk markets improved. 4-week resistance at 0.5540 (1.8060) is the kiwi’s next target, a breakthrough this level could see further buyers push the pair to the long-term level at 0.5600 (1.7860). On the docket this week is French and German Manufacturing and Services data and later NZ retail Sales, both prints are predicted to show poor results.

Current Level: 1.8115
Resistance: 1.8370
Support: 1.8070
Last Weeks Range: 1.8066 – 1.8391

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) returned to 0.5520 (1.8120) from 0.5440 (1.8390) after last week’s RBNZ cash rate cut from 5.5% to 5.25% as risk markets improved. 4-week resistance at 0.5540 (1.8060) is the kiwi’s next target, a breakthrough this level could see further buyers push the pair to the long-term level at 0.5600 (1.7860). On the docket this week is French and German Manufacturing and Services data and later NZ retail Sales, both prints are predicted to show poor results.

Current Level: 0.5520
Support: 0.5445
Resistance: 0.5534
Last week’s range: 0.5437- 0.5535

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to push back from last week’s 0.4650 (2.1500) against the British Pound (GBP) moving back to 0.4710 (2.1240)  after risk markets support the kiwi. UK Retail Sales came in weaker than predicted at 0.5% for the month of July after 0.6% was expected amid a strong “risk on” mood developing. With further cuts form the RBNZ we expect the NZD to struggle towards 0.4740 (2.1100) this week. UK Manufacturing prints Thursday and NZ Retail Sales Friday on the docket.

Current Level: 2.1231
Resistance: 2.1500
Support: 2.1100
Last Weeks Range: 2.1137- 2.1505

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to push back from last week’s 0.4650 (2.1500) against the British Pound (GBP) moving back to 0.4710 (2.1240)  after risk markets support the kiwi. UK Retail Sales came in weaker than predicted at 0.5% for the month of July after 0.6% was expected amid a strong “risk on” mood developing. With further cuts form the RBNZ we expect the NZD to struggle towards 0.4740 (2.1100) this week. UK Manufacturing prints Thursday and NZ Retail Sales Friday on the docket.

Current Level: 0.4710
Resistance: 0.4740
Support: 0.4650
Last Weeks Range: 0.4650- 0.4731

Since last week’s RBNZ cut from 5.50% to 5.25% the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross hasn’t done a whole lot sitting around the 0.9080 (1.1015) area over the past few days. We are quite surprised to see the kiwi hold these levels given the overall strength in the AUD with extending highs in commodities, and an unwillingness by the RBA to change policy based on upside risks to inflation. RBA monetary minutes form the last RBA release is later today and should confirm the banks hawkish position. Fib markers suggest technically the pair could struggle to breach .9070 (1.1030) for now. However, if risk sentiment holds positive this should assist the AUD more than the kiwi.

Current Level: 1.0992
Resistance: 1.1135
Support: 1.0940
Last Weeks Range: 1.0900 – 1.1056