European economic data remains weak, with German GDP growth falling back into negative territory. Manufacturing data out this week, confirms this sector remains in the doldrums, throughout Europe. Energy prices remain at the heart of the problem, which is not likely to change, any time soon. Sanctions continue to take a toll. The cross is likely to weaken back below 0.6100.
Current Level: 0.6125
Resistance: 0.6200
Support: 0.6050
Last Weeks Range: 0.6056- 0.6153
The cross rate with the GBP is trading around 0.5150, but could slip further as interest rate differentials expand and tougher UK budget conditions prevail. The UK Government has promised higher taxes and spending cuts, which does not bode well for the near future. Manufacturing PMI data did show signs of improvement and a stronger economic cycle, could brighten future prospects.
Current Level: 1.9323
Resistance: 1.9600
Support: 1.8867
Last Weeks Range: 1.9308- 1.9535
The EUR has remained fairly static, considering the downside bias of interest rates from the ECB. The cross rate has settled just above 0.5600 against the NZD and looks set to remain steady, as both Central Banks maintain a similarly dovish monetary policy. Look for growth and trade data out of Europe to make incremental changes in the cross rate.
Current Level: 1.7736
Resistance: 1.8181
Support: 1.7240
Last Weeks Range: 1.7647 – 1.8019
The EUR has remained fairly static, considering the downside bias of interest rates from the ECB. The cross rate has settled just above 0.5600 against the NZD and looks set to remain steady, as both Central Banks maintain a similarly dovish monetary policy. Look for growth and trade data out of Europe to make incremental changes in the cross rate.
Current Level: 0.5620
Support: 0.5500
Resistance: 0.5800
Last week’s range: 0.5550- 0.5665
The GBP cross rate trades around 0.4750, as the Bank of England and the RBNZ appear to be in lock-step, as far as interest rates are concerned. The UK has seen economic conditions improve, in recent times, to welcome the new Government. The Labour Government have condemned the dire fiscal position of the Country and promised cuts and tax rises. These will not be popular and will surely not encourage economic growth. This may lead to some downside in the cross rate.
Current Level: 2.1097
Resistance: 2.1750
Support: 2.0800
Last Weeks Range: 2.0978- 2.1277
The GBP cross rate trades around 0.4750, as the Bank of England and the RBNZ appear to be in lock-step, as far as interest rates are concerned. The UK has seen economic conditions improve, in recent times, to welcome the new Government. The Labour Government have condemned the dire fiscal position of the Country and promised cuts and tax rises. These will not be popular and will surely not encourage economic growth. This may lead to some downside in the cross rate.
Current Level: 0.4730
Resistance: 0.4800
Support: 0.4600
Last Weeks Range: 0.4699- 0.4767
The recovery in the NZD/AUD cross rate has surprised many, considering the positions of the respective Central Banks. The RBNZ has already began to cut interest rates, with more to come, while the RBA has promised to keep rates at elevated levels, to combat stubborn inflation. This should widen interest rate differentials, pushing the cross lower, but the strong NZ economic data has defied logic. The cross reached 0.9250, but has slipped back to trade towards 0.9150, which is more in line with expectations.
Current Level: 1.0890
Resistance: 1.1000
Support: 1.0800
Last Weeks Range: 1.0796 – 1.0920
The recovery in the NZD/AUD cross rate has surprised many, considering the positions of the respective Central Banks. The RBNZ has already began to cut interest rates, with more to come, while the RBA has promised to keep rates at elevated levels, to combat stubborn inflation. This should widen interest rate differentials, pushing the cross lower, but the strong NZ economic data has defied logic. The cross reached 0.9250, but has slipped back to trade towards 0.9150, which is more in line with expectations.
Current Level: 0.9165
Resistance: 0.9300
Support: 0.9100
Last Weeks Range: 0.9160 – 0.9263
The NZD has continued to recover from the lows post-RBNZ rate cuts. Last week the KIWI approached 0.6300, supported by stronger than expected local economic data, including a robust Business Confidence number. This coming week will be dominated by US labour market reports, culminating in the Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll number. The weaker US labour market will only encourage the Fed to begin rate cuts, weakening the reserve. The NZD has slipped back towards 0.6200.
Current Level: 0.6220
Support: 0.6100
Resistance: 0.6300
Last week’s range: 0.6190- 0.6290
The NZD continues to recover, from lows, post-RBNZ rate cut decision. The lows of 0.5880 at the end of July was triggered by the RBNZ dovish commentary and then the rate cut. Since then, the KIWI has had a steady recovery, supported by a surge in global economic confidence and Global Central Bank rate cuts. The interest rate differential remains the same, while positive economic data is increasing risk sentiment. This week has seen a surge in NZ Business Confidence, while next week, markets will focus on NZ Trade and the US labour markets. The NZD has regained ground, to trade 0.6250, with some limited upside, if the global economic scene continues to improve.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD .6270
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD .6200-.6250