JPY

How wrong we were post the RBA release last week. Usually, a hike to rates creates buyer interest in the corresponding currency. As the RBA hiked as predicted to 4.35% we saw a small rise in the Australian Dollar (AUD) but this spike wasn’t to last, the currency falling away sharply to end the week around 0.5950 (1.6800) levels. Who knew. The cross tested prior support at 0.5940 (1.6840) before recovering back to 0.5975 (1.6740) this morning. Australian job numbers print later today with forecasts the unemployment rate to rise from 3.6%.

Current Level: 1.6784
Resistance: 1.7010
Support: 1.6500
Last Weeks Range: 1.6452 – 1.6830

How wrong we were post the RBA release last week. Usually, a hike to rates creates buyer interest in the corresponding currency. As the RBA hiked as predicted to 4.35% we saw a small rise in the Australian Dollar (AUD) but this spike wasn’t to last, the currency falling away sharply to end the week around 0.5950 (1.6800) levels. Who knew. The cross tested prior support at 0.5940 (1.6840) before recovering back to 0.5975 (1.6740) this morning. Australian job numbers print later today with forecasts the unemployment rate to rise from 3.6%.

Current Level: 0.5958
Resistance: 0.6060
Support: 0.5880
Last Weeks Range: 0.6452 – 0.6830

UK GDP came in at 0.6% y/y as expected, monthly 0.2% up on the 0.1% markets were expecting confirming the UK economy has flatlined. The good news- the economy hasn’t fallen into a recession with negative growth, but higher borrowing costs look to be hitting where it hurts and will continue to bite for some time as the Bank of England keeps rates high for an extended period. The British Pound (GBP) rose to 1.9220 (0.5205) at the weekly close and has moderately extended this move Monday to 1.9240 (0.5195) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) as markets await this week’s key UK inflation release. Expectations are for a drop from 6.7% to 4.8% y/y which could rally the Pound.

Current Level: 1.9260
Resistance: 1.9400
Support: 1.8995
Last Weeks Range: 1.8975 – 1.9237

Fascinating developments in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) cross have played out exactly as we predicted with the kiwi extending declines to 0.5490 (1.8215). The next point of interest is the long-term support at 0.5475 (1.8265) as it nears this level. A breakout past here and the next stop is 0.5430 (1.8415) With no data to publish on the docket this week we expect recent moves to continue driven by geopolitical risk flow.

Current Level: 1.8201
Resistance: 1.8400
Support: 1.7605
Last Weeks Range: 1.7879 – 1.8142

Fascinating developments in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) cross have played out exactly as we predicted with the kiwi extending declines to 0.5490 (1.8215). The next point of interest is the long-term support at 0.5475 (1.8265) as it nears this level. A breakout past here and the next stop is 0.5430 (1.8415) With no data to publish on the docket this week we expect recent moves to continue driven by geopolitical risk flow.

Current Level: 0.5494
Support: 0.5435
Resistance: 0.5680
Last week’s range: 0.5512 – 0.5593

UK inflation Friday expanded at an annual pace of 0.6% in the third quarter of 2023 matching second quarter growth. Monthly this equates to 0.2% beating out expectations of 0.1% but the economy is stagnating. The British Pound (GBP) pushed higher into the weekly close to 0.4820 (2.0750) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). Monday prices have extended the decline moving to 0.4800 (2.0840) into Tuesday, equities were softer overnight. This week’s main attraction is UK CPI y/y expected to print considerably lower than last quarter’s 6.7% at 4.8%. If we see a print as predicted this could rally the GBP.

Current Level: 2.0885
Resistance: 2.1210
Support: 2.0410
Last Weeks Range: 2.0616- 2.0815

UK inflation Friday expanded at an annual pace of 0.6% in the third quarter of 2023 matching second quarter growth. Monthly this equates to 0.2% beating out expectations of 0.1% but the economy is stagnating. The British Pound (GBP) pushed higher into the weekly close to 0.4820 (2.0750) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). Monday prices have extended the decline moving to 0.4800 (2.0840) into Tuesday, equities were softer overnight. This week’s main attraction is UK CPI y/y expected to print considerably lower than last quarter’s 6.7% at 4.8%. If we see a print as predicted this could rally the GBP.

Current Level: 0.4788
Resistance: 0.4900
Support: 0.4715
Last Weeks Range: 0.4804 – 0.4850

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has started to unwind the strange losses of last week, Monday with price coming off the open’s 1.0795 (0.9265) to 1.0845 (0.9220) this morning. The kind of support we expected last week post the RBA rally. Iron Ore and other precious metal prices are up considerably over the past day or so helping to get the AUD back on track. This week’s Australian employment data Thursday is the main event on the docket with predictions unemployment could rise to 3.7%, something the RBA will be hoping for if the slowing of job ads is anything to go on. Upside in the kiwi could be limited to 0.9150 (1.0930) this week.

Current Level: 1.0840
Resistance: 1.0940
Support: 1.0626
Last Weeks Range: 1.0778 – 1.00895

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has started to unwind the strange losses of last week, Monday with price coming off the open’s 1.0795 (0.9265) to 1.0845 (0.9220) this morning. The kind of support we expected last week post the RBA rally. Iron Ore and other precious metal prices are up considerably over the past day or so helping to get the AUD back on track. This week’s Australian employment data Thursday is the main event on the docket with predictions unemployment could rise to 3.7%, something the RBA will be hoping for if the slowing of job ads is anything to go on. Upside in the kiwi could be limited to 0.9150 (1.0930) this week.

Current Level: 0.9215
Resistance: 0.9410
Support: 0.9140
Last Weeks Range: 0.9178 – 0.9278

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has continued its decline against the US Dollar (USD) off the open reaching 0.5870 in early morning. The overall trend in the pair is to the downside with recent moves to 0.6000 stalling out. Equity rises in early November supported the kiwi but as mood sentiment shifts globally the kiwi remains under pressure. US CPI holds our attention tomorrow, a key driver of the greenback. Expectations are for a drop from 3.7% y/y to 3.3% in the third quarter, questions around if the Fed have “done enough” will be tested. The Federal Reserve has been the most aggressive of the central banks of late. A break below massive support at 0.5770 just 1 cent away could spell further falls in the cross.

Current Level: 0.5881
Resistance: 0.6000
Support: 0.5800
Last Weeks Range: 0.5877 – 0.6000