JPY

For 6 weeks straight the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has had the better of the Euro (EUR) coming from 0.5585 (1.7900) levels to 0.5735 (1.7440)  yesterday. Monday’s action has seen the kiwi give back a chunk of these gains to 0.5690 (1.7570) as ECB rate cuts exit the table. The NZD still needs to make a break below 0.5680 (1.7600) to clear the bear channel and signal a trend change to the downside. Tomorrow’s RBNZ policy meeting has most of us suggesting the central bank won’t hike interest rates past  5.50% but the rhetoric around future plans could move the cross.

Current Level: 0.5685
Support: 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5740
Last week’s range: 0.5682- 0.5734

The British Pound (GBP) rallied back Monday to 2.0560 (0.4865) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) after trading around the 2.0400 (0.4900) areas late in the week. Clearing the 50-day moving average at 2.0510 (0.4875) we see further upside to come for the GBP. Tomorrow’s RBNZ meeting should reflect a “hold” on interest rates at 5.50% which could bring about further selling in the kiwi. We have nothing on the UK calendar this week.

Current Level: 2.0563
Resistance: 2.0650
Support: 2.0400
Last Weeks Range: 2.0372- 2.0578

The British Pound (GBP) rallied back Monday to 2.0560 (0.4865) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) after trading around the 2.0400 (0.4900) areas late in the week. Clearing the 50-day moving average at 2.0510 (0.4875) we see further upside to come for the GBP. Tomorrow’s RBNZ meeting should reflect a “hold” on interest rates at 5.50% which could bring about further selling in the kiwi. We have nothing on the UK calendar this week.

Current Level: 0.4863
Resistance: 0.4900
Support: 0.4840
Last Weeks Range: 0.4859- 0.4908

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) slid to 0.9410 (1.0630) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) Monday but retraced and moved back to 0.9450 (1.0580) early Tuesday. A failed attempt at a reversal leaves the current bull trend in place. More upside for the kiwi look to be the likely scenario over the coming days. Tomorrow early afternoon we will get a flurry of excitement when Aussie CPI y/y is released followed 30 minutes later with the RBNZ rate announcement. Aussie CPI is predicted to come in above the current 3.4% while the jury is out on whether the RBNZ may hike from 5.50%. We think they will hold for now. Key resistance in the cross is around 0.9550 (1.0470) the 2 years high.

Current Level: 1.0590
Resistance: 1.0800
Support: 1.0470
Last Weeks Range: 1.0569- 1.0665

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) slid to 0.9410 (1.0630) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) Monday but retraced and moved back to 0.9450 (1.0580) early Tuesday. A failed attempt at a reversal leaves the current bull trend in place. More upside for the kiwi look to be the likely scenario over the coming days. Tomorrow early afternoon we will get a flurry of excitement when Aussie CPI y/y is released followed 30 minutes later with the RBNZ rate announcement. Aussie CPI is predicted to come in above the current 3.4% while the jury is out on whether the RBNZ may hike from 5.50%. We think they will hold for now. Key resistance in the cross is around 0.9550 (1.0470) the 2 years high.

Current Level: 0.9431
Resistance: 0.9550
Support: 0.9260
Last Weeks Range: 0.9376- 0.9460

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) slumped Monday slipping from 0.6200 to 0.6160 in overnight action against the US Dollar (NZD). This morning the kiwi is a little stronger, consolidating around the 0.6180 area. Although the NZD has held its ground over the past couple of weeks, overall, the cross pressure remains to the downside after stalling in the run up to 0.6370 at year end. We would need a break above 0.6250 to confirm further upside. There is a 25% chance the RBNZ could hike rates from 5.5% tomorrow, we are not in this camp. However, if we see prices push higher towards 0.6200 today/tomorrow, this could imply markets are pricing this in.

Current Level: 0.6169
Support: 0.6050
Resistance: 0.6250
Last week’s range: 0.6107- 0.6217

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) momentum continued well into the week against the British Pound (GBP) the cross reaching a 6-week high of 0.4910 (2.0375). UK Flash Manufacturing came in at 47.1 vs 47.5 expected, falling in the 3 months to February, meanwhile dovish comment from the Bank of England’s Dhingra saying delaying rate cuts would come at substantial costs. NZ Retail Sales published at -1.9% for the December quarter well down from -0.2% predictions and September Q -0.8%. The NZD is weaker post the release falling to 0.4895 (2.0430).

The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4891 GBPNZD 2.0445

The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4860- 0.4907 GBPNZD 2.0379- 2.0576

NZ Trade Balance blew out to -976m much higher than the -200m forecast. This was lower however than last year’s -2.1B and 2021’s -1.1B. Exports are down -7.1% from a year ago with imports falling 20%. The data didn’t affect the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) too much, the kiwi focusing on the recovery in the equity markets overnight. The cross reaching 0.6215 before easing back to 0.6200 levels into Friday. Next week’s RBNZ meet, we are on the fence as to if the central bank will hike.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6194

The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6106- 0.6217

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended its weekly long rally against the Australian Dollar (AUD) pushing into new heights at 0.9460 (1.0570) as I write. Stiff resistance at 0.9440 (1.0590) came and went, surprising most, breaking clear into a 2024 high. Does this all mean we could see a hike at next week’s RBNZ meeting? Is the market positioning for this event, evidence of the overwhelming support for the NZD?. Also on the docket next week is Australia CPI y/y with early predictions we could see a marked drop from the current 3.4%. It’s highly possible the kiwi has been overbought as it nears Dec 2022 highs, we look for a rebound.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9442 AUDNZD 1.0581

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9376- 0.9461 AUDNZD 1.0569- 1.0665

The Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to bounce around recent levels without much conviction. The cross sits at the edge of range resistance this morning at 0.6080 (1.6450) after coming from the bottom of the band at 0.6025 (1.6600) mid last week. The ECB continues to worry about high inflation while they cut growth forecasts for 2024. A rebound is expected to be more modest than thought but will pick up the pace as prices slow and a strong labour market. French and German manufacturing is this week with forecasts of a pick-up in the sector adding a boost to the EUR.

Current Level: 1.6501
Resistance: 1.6600
Support: 1.6380
Last Weeks Range: 1.6475- 1.6609