JPY

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has bounced back from 0.5995 (1.6680) losses over the last couple of trading against the Euro (EUR) reaching 0.6055 (1.6515) this morning. Risk sentiment came roaring back towards the close of the week and into Monday after conflicts between Iran and Israel Friday were downplayed. We see resistance at 0.6060 (1.6500) levels the fib 50% retracement of last week’s move. Aussie inflation report for the March quarter prints tomorrow- 0.8% forecast vs 0.6% previous, more importantly this should shift the y/y number from 4.1% to 3.4% and may put pressure on the AUD. A possible retest to 0.6025 (1.6600) levels has a chance.

Current Level: 0.6059
Resistance: 0.6060
Support: 0.6065
Last Weeks Range: 0.5995- 0.6093

UK Retail Sales depreciated the British Pound (GBP) late in the week against the Australian Dollar (AUD) reversing earlier gains made by the GBP after geopolitical tensions after Iran attacks on Israel. Coming off 1.9480 (0.5135) to close around 1.9270 (0.5190) the GBP extended losses to 1.9120 (0.5230) in early Tuesday trading. Equity markets and stable commodity levels have also supported the AUD, the S&P up over 1% in NY trading. On the docket this week is Aussie CPI q/q for March expected to print higher. Watch for a re-test of moves towards 0.5240 (1.9090).

Current Level: 1.9127
Resistance: 1.9530
Support: 1.9100
Last Weeks Range: 1.9200- 1.9480

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) bounced back off Monday’s open at 0.5530 (1.8090) to reach 0.5560 (1.7980) into Tuesday trading. 0.5560 (1.7980) is the 50% fib retracement points of recent high and lows and suggests the kiwi may have been overbought to current levels. We favour a retest of the 0.5540 (1.8050) this week data dependant. Eurozone Services and Manufacturing print tonight expected to reflect modest rises in March.

Current Level: 1.7998
Resistance: 1.8100
Support: 1.7900
Last Weeks Range: 1.7875 – 1.8134

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) bounced back off Monday’s open at 0.5530 (1.8090) to reach 0.5560 (1.7980) into Tuesday trading. 0.5560 (1.7980) is the 50% fib retracement points of recent high and lows and suggests the kiwi may have been overbought to current levels. We favour a retest of the 0.5540 (1.8050) this week data dependant. Eurozone Services and Manufacturing print tonight expected to reflect modest rises in March.

Current Level: 0.5556
Support: 0.5525
Resistance: 0.5585
Last week’s range: 0.5514- 0.5594

UK Manufacturing tonight should show modest improvements to orders, the only data on the roster this week in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) cross and may improve the GBP of the current 0.4795 (2.0860) level if the data impresses. The kiwi is trading at a 6-week high at the moment after breaking past resistance at 0.4790 (2.0870). Earlier UK Retail Sales was unimpressive with rises to auto fuel and non-food store sales, the data adding to the GBP weakness. Our pick is for the NZD to continue to the downside after the recent run up.

Current Level: 2.0086
Resistance: 2.1200
Support: 2.0750
Last Weeks Range: 2.0911- 2.1203

UK Manufacturing tonight should show modest improvements to orders, the only data on the roster this week in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) cross and may improve the GBP of the current 0.4795 (2.0860) level if the data impresses. The kiwi is trading at a 6-week high at the moment after breaking past resistance at 0.4790 (2.0870). Earlier UK Retail Sales was unimpressive with rises to auto fuel and non-food store sales, the data adding to the GBP weakness. Our pick is for the NZD to continue to the downside after the recent run up.

Current Level: 0.4794
Resistance: 0.4820
Support: 0.4720
Last Weeks Range: 0.4716- 0.4782

Consolidation in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) pair still looks the theme this week after the bull run to 1.0950 (0.9130) collapsed. The past 10 days the cross has been pivoting around the 0.9180 (1.0890) zone with little bias in any direction. The kiwi managed to reach 0.9212 (1.0855) late in the week but the Aussie looks to want to get on with it into Tuesday as it eyes the bottom of the recent band. Australian CPI prints tomorrow and is expected to slow sharply to 3.4% from 4.1% in the fourth quarter. We predict the AUD to be well supported over the rest of the week.

Current Level: 1.0899
Resistance: 1.0960
Support: 1.0850
Last Weeks Range: 1.0854- 1.0918

Consolidation in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) pair still looks the theme this week after the bull run to 1.0950 (0.9130) collapsed. The past 10 days the cross has been pivoting around the 0.9180 (1.0890) zone with little bias in any direction. The kiwi managed to reach 0.9212 (1.0855) late in the week but the Aussie looks to want to get on with it into Tuesday as it eyes the bottom of the recent band. Australian CPI prints tomorrow and is expected to slow sharply to 3.4% from 4.1% in the fourth quarter. We predict the AUD to be well supported over the rest of the week.

Current Level: 0.9169
Resistance: 0.9220
Support: 0.9125
Last Weeks Range: 0.9136- 0.9213

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) recovered off last week’s low around 0.5860 against the US Dollar (USD) to 0.5915 this morning. Risk sentiment recovered for the most part off the back of the recent escalated tensions between Iran and Israel late last week. Equity markets ticked up overnight supporting NZD buys as well, but we would be surprised if we saw prices above 0.5950 in the next day or so with a stiff bias to the downside still looming. On the docket this week we have US Advanced GDP for the March quarter expected to come in light around 2.5% vs 3.4% in the December quarter. A push above the 50-day moving average around 0.5950 and above 0.6000 would signal further upside but this looks a tall order.

Current Level: 0.5925
Support: 0.5860
Resistance: 0.5950
Last week’s range: 0.5850- 0.5952

The past two weeks of moves higher by the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) have been erased this week with price falling from 0.4750 (2.0920) to 0.4720 (2.1200) midweek. NZ inflation came in lower than the predicted 4.3% at 4.0% for the March quarter y/y down from 4.7% in the fourth quarter of 2023, the smallest inflation read since June 2021. The RBNZ still need a 1-3% target, data depending- we should be under 3% by the third quarter this year. We don’t expect rate cuts until September, other analysts are saying November. UK CPI also dipped y/y in March from 3.4% to 3.2% mostly from a slowdown in food inflation. The release lent further support for the GBP in line with a little “risk off” developing over the past few hours. The bear channel in play looks to kick on for a while with price looking like it wants to retest 0.4720 (2.1200)

The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4743 GBPNZD 2.1083

The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4716- 0.4782 GBPNZD 2.0908- 2.1203