JPY

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has been one of the strongest currencies over the week, rebounding off the weekly close at 0.4740 (2.1090) it has regained losses to reach 0.4770 (2.0960) against the British Pound (GBP). We have no news published to report on this week with all eyes on next week’s RBNZ meeting with no change predicted yet from 5.50%. Trend in the pair is still to the downside with price locked into a bear channel from the high at 0.4900 (2.0400) from late February. A move above prior resistance at 0.4780 (2.0910) could highlight a momentum shift for the kiwi.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4764 GBPNZD 2.0990

The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4730- 0.4775 GBPNZD 2.0942- 2.1138

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) started the week off in familiar form falling further to 0.5940 off the bat against the US Dollar (USD) giving thought, it was going to be another long week of declines. However, the kiwi reversed on a dime pushing up back into the early 60’s, reaching 0.6045 in late morning US trading as risk currencies were back in favour. Surging commodities and a rebound in US equities have helped, the kiwi shrugging off concerns also of a downbeat RBNZ at next week’s central bank meeting. No change is predicted from 5.5% but we could see discussion of a potential cut at the May 22 meeting. Buyers of USD should consider 0.6000.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6024

The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5938- 0.6045

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) has held around 0.9150 over the past couple of days, the kiwi looking generally sad as it has declined further over the week from 0.9191 (1.0880) , the 6th week straight. Precious metal prices have boosted the AUD this week, especially copper. Commodity buyers seem more concerned about inflation risk than growth which should keep commodity prices buoyant supporting the AUD. Next week’s RBNZ meeting comes into focus with no shift from 5.5% expected. An upbeat RBNZ governor could send the kiwi lower.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9144 AUDNZD 1.0923

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9128- 0.9272 AUDNZD 1.0784- 1.0955

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) hasn’t been able to regain an edge against the British Pound (GBP) this week after dropping in value last week to 0.4760 (2.10). Prices in the cross have progressed through to 0.4755 (2.1035) into Tuesday trading just shy of last week’s low and September 2023 levels. No data publishing this week, last week’s poor NZ growth data should keep the kiwi on the back foot with the Bank of England (BoE) unlikely to lower rates any time soon.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4753 GBPNZD 2.1039

The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4746- 0.4768 GBPNZD 2.0972- 2.1068

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) slipped below the key 0.6000 level against the US Dollar (USD) late last week closing around the 0.5995 mark. Last week’s gloomy growth release is taking a toll on the kiwi, adding in some less than dovish speak from the Federal Reserve and the NZD has and could continue to struggle. Overnight we saw a rebound to 0.6030 but declined back to 0.6000 as I wrote. The importance of having orders in the market, this is a good example. Over the next day or so we will get a read on how markets are perceiving the strength in the NZD. The longer the cross trades around 0.6000 the harder the break to the downside could be.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6002

The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5982- 0.6030

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to go from strength to strength against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) with the cross reaching 0.9175 (1.0900) early this morning a fresh 3rd of November low. Pricing around 0.9140 (1.0940) is the next stop in the pair for support. Through this zone and we are targeting 0.9075 (1.1020) the lowest daily close since October 2022. On the topside any push back through 0.9245 (1.0820) would indicate a momentum shift. Australian CPI y/y for February prints later today and could strengthen the Aussie further if the data is higher than the 3.5% forecast.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9184 AUDNZD 1.0883

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9173- 0.9231 AUDNZD 1.0832- 1.0901

It’s been a big couple of days for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) cross. UK CPI came in below expectation at 3.4% based on 3.5% forecast, with the Bank of England (BoE) saying they are getting close to cutting interest rates as early as May after the central bank kept rates on hold overnight at 5.25% in a 1-8 vote. With inflation expected to fall further in the coming months the BoE will start to show more flexibility. The NZ economy has formally dropped into recession with numbers showing a dip in growth in the December quarter of -0.1% after 0.1% was expected. The pair reached 0.4745 (2.1080) midweek before reversing to 0.4780 (2.0930) into Friday.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4773 GBPNZD 2.0951

The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4744- 0.4792 GBPNZD 2.0868- 2.1079

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has extended its hold over the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) over the week, posting 1.0870 (0.9200) this morning, a November 2023 high. After starting the week out at 1.0780 (0.9280) the kiwi hasn’t got a look in. A combination of an RBA holds at 4.35% with the central bank saying the war on inflation isn’t over yet, a push higher in Iron ore pricing and the NZ economy dropping into a formal recession all assisting the AUD. NZ GDP printed at -0.1% after a -0.3% read in the September quarter surprising markets. The AUD now targets resistance of 1.0930 (0.9150) on the chart.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9195 AUDNZD 1.0866

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9193- 0.9309 AUDNZD 1.0742- 1.0877

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) initially did a good job of shrugging off softer than expected growth yesterday but has suffered losses in overnight NY trading dropping to 0.6040 from 0.6100 against the US Dollar (USD). NZ GDP for the March quarter printed at -0.1% after 0.1% was predicted putting the NZ economy in a formal recession after a negative read of -0.3% in the December 2023 quarter. Earlier the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 5.50% with markets getting what they wanted with 3 rate cuts in 2024, Powell saying inflation is on a bumpy road back to 2.0% with the January 2025 forecast being revised up. The kiwi may drop further and retest key 0.6000 support our view.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6046

The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6017- 0.6106

The recent weakness in the AUD has seen the cross-rate with the EUR fall steadily, from highs of around 0.6200 in early 2024, to current levels of 0.6050. Recent spikes in European inflation levels may lead to deferment of signalled rate cuts which would add further downward momentum to the cross with the AUD.

Current Level: 1.6666
Resistance: 1.6949
Support: 1.6129
Last Weeks Range: 1.6504- 1.6597