JPY

The 2024 average rate in the NZD/USD cross is 0.6066.

Further declines in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) this week against the US Dollar (USD) have the cross down around 0.5750 early Wednesday with no real signs of a retrace in sight. After clearing support around 0.5800 the kiwi looks to retest the 2022 low at 0.5500. With the New Zealand economy down for the count and GDP third quarter to likely come in negative tomorrow putting the economy formally back into recession, we see no topside momentum on the radar. To make things worse govt books released show NZ is unlikely to return to a surplus until 2029- this is 1 year later than first calculated.

Current Level: 0.5753
Support: 0.5550
Resistance: 0.58802
Last week’s range: 0.5753 – 0.5887

Euro (EUR) focus this week is on the ECB cutting interest rates from 3.40% to 3.15% as they cut faster to alleviate a dropping economy with softer growth forecast. Also on the radar is today’s RBA OCR with no change from 4.35% expected. We are expecting the tone from the RBA Governor to change into “easing timing” and policy direction. The cross has reversed off 0.6045 (1.6540) the 12-week daily low to 0.6105 (1.6380) this morning. Possibly a sneak preview of weekly direction given central bank divergence.

Current Level: 1.6404
Resistance: 1.6540
Support: 1.6300
Last Weeks Range: 1.6158- 1.6560

Euro (EUR) focus this week is on the ECB cutting interest rates from 3.40% to 3.15% as they cut faster to alleviate a dropping economy with softer growth forecast. Also on the radar is today’s RBA OCR with no change from 4.35% expected. We are expecting the tone from the RBA Governor to change into “easing timing” and policy direction. The cross has reversed off 0.6045 (1.6540) the 12-week daily low to 0.6105 (1.6380) this morning. Possibly a sneak preview of weekly direction given central bank divergence.

Current Level: 0.6096
Resistance: 0.6135
Support: 0.6045
Last Weeks Range: 0.6038- 0.6188

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has posted the lowest weekly close of 0.5018 (1.9928) against the British Pound (GBP) since April 2020 to end the week. It didn’t take long Monday for the AUD to pounce back and regain losses to 0.5060 (1.9760) this morning. The RBA will leave interest rates unchanged today at 4.35% but may highlight the need to start easing policy as early as February. Swati Dhingra, a Bank of England (BoE) policymaker voiced concerns over the weekend that the elevated interest rates are stifling household spending and discouraging economic growth arguing that the current 4.75% interest rate is far to high and damaging expansion. We think the AUD/GBP may retest the 0.5080 (1.9700) area.

Current Level: 1.9821
Resistance: 2.000
Support: 1.9200
Last Weeks Range: 1.9506- 1.9974

The ECB meet this Thursday and should cut interest rates by 25 points to 3.15% but German politics may take centre stage. Germany Chancellor Scholz is expected to call a vote of no confidence on 11 December with the Bundestag voting on 16th December. If he fails, Germany is likely to stage elections in February 2025. Political risk will likely weigh on the EUR. The Euro (EUR), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) cross shifted off 0.5510 (1.8150) late Monday to 0.5565 (1.7970) this morning.

Current Level: 1.8040
Resistance: 1.8200
Support: 1.7800
Last Weeks Range: 1.7785 – 1.8124

The ECB meet this Thursday and should cut interest rates by 25 points to 3.15% but German politics may take centre stage. Germany Chancellor Scholz is expected to call a vote of no confidence on 11 December with the Bundestag voting on 16th December. If he fails, Germany is likely to stage elections in February 2025. Political risk will likely weigh on the EUR. The Euro (EUR), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) cross shifted off 0.5510 (1.8150) late Monday to 0.5565 (1.7970) this morning.

Current Level: 0.5543
Support: 0.5500
Resistance: 0.5620
Last week’s range: 0.5517- 0.5622

The British Pound (GBP) reached a key level overnight against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) of 0.4565 (2.1900) before giving back gains to 0.4600 (2.1735) early today. 0.4565 (2.1900) being the lowest level since Brexit voting mid-2016. We have no significant tier 1 data on the calendar over the next few days only UK GDP m/m to release Friday which shouldn’t move the cross significantly. A retest of 0.4635 (2.1570) is our pick with further recovery by the kiwi expected.

Current Level: 2.1791
Resistance: 2.1900
Support: 2.1550
Last Weeks Range: 2.1471- 2.1863

The British Pound (GBP) reached a key level overnight against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) of 0.4565 (2.1900) before giving back gains to 0.4600 (2.1735) early today. 0.4565 (2.1900) being the lowest level since Brexit voting mid-2016. We have no significant tier 1 data on the calendar over the next few days only UK GDP m/m to release Friday which shouldn’t move the cross significantly. A retest of 0.4635 (2.1570) is our pick with further recovery by the kiwi expected.

Current Level: 0.4589
Resistance: 0.4640
Support: 0.4565
Last Weeks Range: 0.4573- 0.4657

The British Pound (GBP) reached a key level overnight against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) of 0.4565 (2.1900) before giving back gains to 0.4600 (2.1735) early today. 0.4565 (2.1900) being the lowest level since Brexit voting mid-2016. We have no significant tier 1 data on the calendar over the next few days only UK GDP m/m to release Friday which shouldn’t move the cross significantly. A retest of 0.4635 (2.1570) is our pick with further recovery by the kiwi expected.

Current Level: 0.4589
Resistance: 0.4640
Support: 0.4565
Last Weeks Range: 0.4573- 0.4657

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reached a fresh 10 week high against the Australian Dollar (AUD) Monday clocking 0.9150 (1.0930) before giving back gains to 0.9110 (1.0980) this morning. What’s interesting is the cross is back in the same comfort zone it’s been since early October. Today’s RBA cash rate release holds focus with no change expected from 4.35%. We doubt we will see much excitement around the release with punters looking for clues in the statement for renewed optimism the central bank will be cutting early next year, 25 points is priced into the curve, but the timing will be key.

Current Level: 1.0992
Resistance: 1.1090
Support: 1.0930
Last Weeks Range: 1.0989 – 1.1168