interbank midrate

The Australian Dollar (AUD) moved to 0.6400 Friday against the US Dollar (USD) a two-month high after a surge north from 0.6330 early Thursday and improved risk sentiment around the Ukraine/Russia peace deal. Aussie employment data came in strong casting questions over future rate cuts. The RBA will remain cautious over future policy easing declaring the battle against inflation is not over. US manufacturing for January prints tonight and should reflect a strong strengthening sector.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6398
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6326- 0.6408

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended its recovery north Monday against the US Dollar (USD) reaching 0.6370 into early Tuesday a fresh yearly high in the cross. A combination of factors has contributed to the upbeat AUD of late including sentiment around a Ukraine/Russia peace deal and softer US Retail Sales. All eyes are on today’s RBA with predictions of a 25-point cut to 4.10%, however there are mounting risks the central bank delivers a hawkish surprise amid a tighter labour market and inflated CPI. Signalling a shallow rate cut cycle in 2025 could also be on the cards. Setback for the AUD should be well supported.

Current Level: 0.6352
Resistance: 0.6400
Support: 0.6170
Last Weeks Range: 0.6234- 0.6366

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is hovering just above the 2003 monthly low against the US Dollar (USD), the area around 0.6100 may hold for the moment. Volatility is off the charts Monday (literally) with prices gapping off the open from last week’s close at 0.6210 and opening at 0.6150 before falling further to reach 0.6090 late afternoon yesterday. Trump tariff wars are to blame with sentiment low and markets in disarray with the news of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10% on China rattling everyone. The Aussie is back around 0.6185 this morning perhaps post the news that Mexico tariffs have been delayed a month or so. Markets now await Non-Farm Payroll Friday.

Current Level: 0.6225
Resistance: 0.6300
Support: 0.6150
Last Weeks Range: 0.6198- 0.6306

The 2024 average rate in the AUD/USD cross is 0.6613.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has fallen sharply again off the weekly open against the Australian Dollar (AUD) clocking a fresh October 2023 low of 0.6330. A break past prior September support at 0.6280 may spell further drops to 0.6170 levels. The Australian economy is sensitive to prospects of a US trade war with China, RBA  Deputy Governor Hauser said as Australia rely on China for a massive amount of trade export especially in natural resources. Its possible when the Fed cut interest rates tomorrow from 4.75% to 4.5% they may signal a hawkish tone around a gradual easing. We are seeing this already in the currency as most of this is already baked in.

Current Level: 0.6331
Resistance: 0.6400
Support: 0.6280
Last Weeks Range: 0.6335- 0.6470

Fundamentally the Australian Dollar (AUD) remains offered against the US Dollar (USD) off the back of last week’s poor Aussie GDP read and better than expected non-farm payroll release. On the downside we expect the AUD to retest 0.6375 before any steadiness can be expected. Major support at 0.6350 is unlikely to be tested in the short to medium term. Also, the RBA will now be pressured to lean more on the accommodative side of policy going forward. We expect the RBA to hold interest rates at 4.35% at 4.30pm NZT today with labour numbers tight. However, we expect the RBA to hint at earlier than predicted cuts, possibly in February especially considering softer recent 3Q GDP.

Current Level: 0.6435
Resistance: 0.6800
Support: 0.6300
Last Weeks Range: 0.6372- 0.6509

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended declines over the week against the US Dollar (USD) reaching 0.6398 the August 24 low before price recovered on big dollar weakness in early Friday to 0.6455. US jobs data for last week put the USD under pressure. RBA rate cuts are now starting to enter discussions starting in April 2025 after disappointing third quarter GDP data of 0.3% falling short of the 0.4% forecast. Annual GDP has also dropped to well under 1.0% to 0.8%. Non-Farm Payroll will be key Saturday morning as this may spark a bull run in the AUD if data surprises to the downside.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6449

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6398- 0.6514