interbank midrate

The 2024 average rate in the AUD/USD cross is 0.6613.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has fallen sharply again off the weekly open against the Australian Dollar (AUD) clocking a fresh October 2023 low of 0.6330. A break past prior September support at 0.6280 may spell further drops to 0.6170 levels. The Australian economy is sensitive to prospects of a US trade war with China, RBA  Deputy Governor Hauser said as Australia rely on China for a massive amount of trade export especially in natural resources. Its possible when the Fed cut interest rates tomorrow from 4.75% to 4.5% they may signal a hawkish tone around a gradual easing. We are seeing this already in the currency as most of this is already baked in.

Current Level: 0.6331
Resistance: 0.6400
Support: 0.6280
Last Weeks Range: 0.6335- 0.6470

Fundamentally the Australian Dollar (AUD) remains offered against the US Dollar (USD) off the back of last week’s poor Aussie GDP read and better than expected non-farm payroll release. On the downside we expect the AUD to retest 0.6375 before any steadiness can be expected. Major support at 0.6350 is unlikely to be tested in the short to medium term. Also, the RBA will now be pressured to lean more on the accommodative side of policy going forward. We expect the RBA to hold interest rates at 4.35% at 4.30pm NZT today with labour numbers tight. However, we expect the RBA to hint at earlier than predicted cuts, possibly in February especially considering softer recent 3Q GDP.

Current Level: 0.6435
Resistance: 0.6800
Support: 0.6300
Last Weeks Range: 0.6372- 0.6509

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended declines over the week against the US Dollar (USD) reaching 0.6398 the August 24 low before price recovered on big dollar weakness in early Friday to 0.6455. US jobs data for last week put the USD under pressure. RBA rate cuts are now starting to enter discussions starting in April 2025 after disappointing third quarter GDP data of 0.3% falling short of the 0.4% forecast. Annual GDP has also dropped to well under 1.0% to 0.8%. Non-Farm Payroll will be key Saturday morning as this may spark a bull run in the AUD if data surprises to the downside.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6449

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6398- 0.6514

Australian Dollar (AUD), US Dollar (USD) action since mid-November remains range bound with swings between 0.6440 and 0.6540. Falling from the 0.6500 level off the weekly open the AUD reached 0.6441 before pushing back into Tuesday trading to 0.6485 as US JOLTS data released higher than expected. Earlier Aussie Retail Sales came in hot for October at 0.6 against September’s 0.1% with household goods the big mover up 1.4%. Also of note, Chinese Manufacturing data continues to improve based on recent figures with could also be supporting the AUD amid poor global economic growth. Non-Farm Payroll  releases Saturday morning with another decent release of the change in employed people in November expected. We predict a retest at 0.6440 support.

Current Level: 0.6485
Resistance: 0.6535
Support: 0.6440
Last Weeks Range: 0.6433- 0.6548

The Australian Dollar (AUD) gapped to 0.6550 off the weekly close of 0.6500 against the US Dollar (USD) Monday before falling back in early Tuesday to 0.6485. Wednesday’s release of the CPI y/y holds our focus with predictions of a rise from September’s 2.1% to 2.5% in October. The release shouldn’t have much offshoot for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) with the recent RBA minutes suggesting the central bank has no immediate need to cut interest rates saying they would need more than 1 good inflation report to sway them. Support at 0.6485 has held signalling we could see a small lift in the Aussie this week.

Current Level: 0.6505
Resistance: 0.6700
Support: 0.6440
Last Weeks Range: 0.6447- 0.6544