GBP

After weakening off to 0.6135 (1.6300)  levels late last week the Australian Dollar (AUD) has clawed back losses Monday to trade back at 0.6170 (1.6200) against the Euro (EUR) off the back of a collapse in the German coalition Government. Australian jobs numbers release Thursday and should reflect a shift in recent strong “employed” jobs numbers. Until late labour force participation has remained high at 67.2%, this has been creating wage and inflation pressures. This could all be about to change?. We pick a reversal on the cards back to 0.6060 (1.6500) levels.

Current Level: 0.6166
Resistance: 0.6250
Support: 0.6050
Last Weeks Range: 0.6045- 0.6188

The Bank of England (BoE) cut their interest rate Friday from 5.00% to 4.75% as widely expected. The vote, an 8-1 decision was accompanied by benign policy guidance with a gradual approach to slowly removing restraints. The recent budget reinforcing a boost to growth and inflation. The British Pound (GBP) pushed higher over the news to0 0.5090 (1.9650). Heading into Tuesday the AUD has recovered slightly to 0.5110 (1.9570) as we await Australian Jobs data this week.

Current Level: 1.9580
Resistance: 1.9700
Support: 1.9330
Last Weeks Range: 1.9426- 1.9781

The Euro (EUR) has been slammed of late, the New Zealand Dollar extended gains Monday off 0.5570 (1.7950) to trade around 0.5590 (1.7870) into Tuesday sessions. The Euro has been weak across the board off the back of the collapse of the German Govt and the new “Trump” govt. A daily close through the 6-week high at 0.5610 (1.7830) could spell further troubles for the Euro. German economic sentiment prints tonight and could also show a decline to overall growth.

Current Level: 1.7869
Resistance: 1.8210
Support: 1.7830
Last Weeks Range: 1.7905 – 1.8232

The Euro (EUR) has been slammed of late, the New Zealand Dollar extended gains Monday off 0.5570 (1.7950) to trade around 0.5590 (1.7870) into Tuesday sessions. The Euro has been weak across the board off the back of the collapse of the German Govt and the new “Trump” govt. A daily close through the 6-week high at 0.5610 (1.7830) could spell further troubles for the Euro. German economic sentiment prints tonight and could also show a decline to overall growth.

Current Level: 0.5596
Support: 0.5490
Resistance: 0.5610
Last week’s range: 0.5484- 0.5585

The risk off Friday tone took the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) lower to 0.4615 (2.1670) against the British Pound (GBP) , strange as the Bank of England (BoE) cut rates by 25 points to 4.75%. This must have been fully priced in as markets preferred to buy the Pound. Perhaps the BoE tone surprised markets by saying they see upside inflation risks due to the recent budget. NZ surveyed inflation expectations 1 year out have gone from 2.40% to 2.05% with the 2 year up from 2.03% to 2.12%. The kiwi traded up post the news to 0.4635 (2.1580).

Current Level: 2.1579
Resistance: 2.1900
Support: 2.1350
Last Weeks Range: 2.1513- 2.1778

The risk off Friday tone took the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) lower to 0.4615 (2.1670) against the British Pound (GBP) , strange as the Bank of England (BoE) cut rates by 25 points to 4.75%. This must have been fully priced in as markets preferred to buy the Pound. Perhaps the BoE tone surprised markets by saying they see upside inflation risks due to the recent budget. NZ surveyed inflation expectations 1 year out have gone from 2.40% to 2.05% with the 2 year up from 2.03% to 2.12%. The kiwi traded up post the news to 0.4635 (2.1580).

Current Level: 0.4634
Resistance: 0.4685
Support: 0.4565
Last Weeks Range: 0.4591- 0.4648

Last week’s slide to 0.9020 (1.1090) wasn’t sustained, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) making gains back to 0.9090 (1.1000) this morning. Precious metals markets and the latest Chinese data put pressure back on the Australian Dollar (AUD) as the currency gave back momentum. NZ 2-year Inflation Expectations ticked up from 2.03% to 2.12% with the RBNZ cash rate forecast respectively 4.25% by Dec 24 and 3.25% by September 2025 of note. The Aussie jobs report for October is expected to come in poor and support further kiwi rises.

Current Level: 1.019
Resistance: 1.1090
Support: 1.0970
Last Weeks Range: 1.0990 – 1.1089

Last week’s slide to 0.9020 (1.1090) wasn’t sustained, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) making gains back to 0.9090 (1.1000) this morning. Precious metals markets and the latest Chinese data put pressure back on the Australian Dollar (AUD) as the currency gave back momentum. NZ 2-year Inflation Expectations ticked up from 2.03% to 2.12% with the RBNZ cash rate forecast respectively 4.25% by Dec 24 and 3.25% by September 2025 of note. The Aussie jobs report for October is expected to come in poor and support further kiwi rises.

Current Level: 0.9074
Resistance: 0.9115
Support: 0.9017
Last Weeks Range: 0.9017 – 0.9099

The survey of New Zealand Inflation expectations 1 year out dropped from 2.40% to 2.05% and the 2-year prediction increased from 2.03% to 2.12%. The report also showed the RBNZ OCR forecast until Dec 2024 is 4.25% and out to September 2025 – 3.25%. Markets seem to be on the fence with either a 50-point cut, or a 75-point cut at the Nov 27 meeting.  The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains steady Monday against the US Dollar (USD) around the 0.5960 level having bounced off 0.5975 earlier. US CPI y/y is expected to print higher for October to 2.6% up from 2.4% and could push the kiwi lower into the close of the week.

Current Level: 0.5968
Support: 0.5930
Resistance: 0.6030
Last week’s range: 0.5910 – 0.6037