GBP

It’s been a big couple of days for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) cross. UK CPI came in below expectation at 3.4% based on 3.5% forecast, with the Bank of England (BoE) saying they are getting close to cutting interest rates as early as May after the central bank kept rates on hold overnight at 5.25% in a 1-8 vote. With inflation expected to fall further in the coming months the BoE will start to show more flexibility. The NZ economy has formally dropped into recession with numbers showing a dip in growth in the December quarter of -0.1% after 0.1% was expected. The pair reached 0.4745 (2.1080) midweek before reversing to 0.4780 (2.0930) into Friday.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4773 GBPNZD 2.0951

The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4744- 0.4792 GBPNZD 2.0868- 2.1079

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has extended its hold over the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) over the week, posting 1.0870 (0.9200) this morning, a November 2023 high. After starting the week out at 1.0780 (0.9280) the kiwi hasn’t got a look in. A combination of an RBA holds at 4.35% with the central bank saying the war on inflation isn’t over yet, a push higher in Iron ore pricing and the NZ economy dropping into a formal recession all assisting the AUD. NZ GDP printed at -0.1% after a -0.3% read in the September quarter surprising markets. The AUD now targets resistance of 1.0930 (0.9150) on the chart.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9195 AUDNZD 1.0866

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9193- 0.9309 AUDNZD 1.0742- 1.0877

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) initially did a good job of shrugging off softer than expected growth yesterday but has suffered losses in overnight NY trading dropping to 0.6040 from 0.6100 against the US Dollar (USD). NZ GDP for the March quarter printed at -0.1% after 0.1% was predicted putting the NZ economy in a formal recession after a negative read of -0.3% in the December 2023 quarter. Earlier the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 5.50% with markets getting what they wanted with 3 rate cuts in 2024, Powell saying inflation is on a bumpy road back to 2.0% with the January 2025 forecast being revised up. The kiwi may drop further and retest key 0.6000 support our view.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6046

The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6017- 0.6106

The recent weakness in the AUD has seen the cross-rate with the EUR fall steadily, from highs of around 0.6200 in early 2024, to current levels of 0.6050. Recent spikes in European inflation levels may lead to deferment of signalled rate cuts which would add further downward momentum to the cross with the AUD.

Current Level: 1.6666
Resistance: 1.6949
Support: 1.6129
Last Weeks Range: 1.6504- 1.6597

The recent weakness in the AUD has seen the cross-rate with the EUR fall steadily, from highs of around 0.6200 in early 2024, to current levels of 0.6050. Recent spikes in European inflation levels may lead to deferment of signalled rate cuts which would add further downward momentum to the cross with the AUD.

Current Level: 0.6000
Resistance: 0.6200
Support: 0.5900
Last Weeks Range: 0.6025- 0.6059

The AUD/GBP cross-rate, has been deteriorating from highs of 0.5350, to recent trades around 0.5150. The Bank of England meet this week, following on from the latest CPI inflation reading, on Wednesday. If the inflation number continues to tumble, then this should ensure some prospect of rate cuts in the UK, and stability for the cross against the AUD. Any signs of reemergent inflation in the UK, could add some upward momentum to the GBP, and only add to recent losses on the cross.

Current Level: 1.9409
Resistance: 1.9802
Support: 1.8868
Last Weeks Range: 1.9305- 1.9440

The NZDEUR has been weaker, as a direct result of the weaker KIWI$. The rate has fallen from highs of around 0.5750, to the current level of 0.5600. The ECB has been holding rates steadily, but hinted at rate cuts in the middle of 2024. They may defer these promised ratecuts, if inflation re-emerges, in the Eurozone. There are hints that plunging inflation inEurope, may have bottomed out, with upticks in European national inflation readings. If inflation continues to reverse, there may be some support for the EUR, and some downside for the cross against the NZD.

Current Level: 1.7985
Resistance: 1.8181
Support: 1.7391
Last Weeks Range: 1.7694- 1.7887

The NZDEUR has been weaker, as a direct result of the weaker KIWI$. The rate has fallen from highs of around 0.5750, to the current level of 0.5600. The ECB has been holding rates steadily, but hinted at rate cuts in the middle of 2024. They may defer these promised ratecuts, if inflation re-emerges, in the Eurozone. There are hints that plunging inflation inEurope, may have bottomed out, with upticks in European national inflation readings. If inflation continues to reverse, there may be some support for the EUR, and some downside for the cross against the NZD.

Current Level: 0.5560
Support: 0.5500
Resistance: 0.5750
Last week’s range: 0.5590- 0.5650

The Bank of England meet this week, following the release of the latest UK CPI inflation readings. If inflation continues to tumble, the ‘BofE’ may well hint at pending interest rate cuts, especially in light of the looming National Election. The cross rate has fallen all the way from 0.4950, to below 0.4800, due to inherent KIWI weakness. This may be ameliorated, if the Bank of England decides to embrace rate cuts. Any sign of rejuvenated inflation, will have a sharp impact, in the opposite direction.

Current Level: 2.1052
Resistance: 2.1276
Support: 2.0408
Last Weeks Range: 2.0780- 2.0920