GBP

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) consolidated around the 50% retracement level of 0.4540 (2.2030) late last week the mid- level of the 2025 low and high as it pondered direction. Trump was happy to oblige with weekend news of tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China threw markets into a spin. The NZD/GBP cross clocking 0.4500 (2.2210) in the wake of the news as sentiment ebbed and flowed. Since we have seen a push back from the kiwi to 0.4510 (2.2160) as I write. On the calendar we have NZ employment data expected to rise from 4.8% to over 5.0% and the Bank of England (BoE) cash rate release with the bank widely expected to cut rates from 4.75% to 4.50%. We expect moves to retest 0.4485 (2.2300) levels over the week.

Current Level: 0.4523
Resistance: 0.4590
Support: 0.4475
Last Weeks Range: 0.4531- 0.4578

Trade tariff news over the past couple of days has benefited the Australian Dollar (AUD) as risk markets took a holiday after President Trump said he was imposing tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico. The NZD made small gains last week from 0.9060 (1.1040) to close at 0.9090 (1.1000). Monday’s open lifted the AUD to trade into morning sessions at 0.9035 (1.1070). Australian Retail Sales surprised us when figures showed a less than dire -0.7% forecast, coming in at -0.1% in January. All eyes will be on NZ employment data printing Wednesday which is expected to show a rise to over 5.0% from the current 4.8%, almost certainly weakening the NZD. In a couple of weeks, the RBNZ meet and should cut rates by 50 points possibly more if employment data releases poorly. The NZD will be doing well to stay in the 90’s

Current Level: 1.1053
Resistance: 1.1090
Support: 1.1000
Last Weeks Range: 1.0999 – 1.1069

Trade tariff news over the past couple of days has benefited the Australian Dollar (AUD) as risk markets took a holiday after President Trump said he was imposing tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico. The NZD made small gains last week from 0.9060 (1.1040) to close at 0.9090 (1.1000). Monday’s open lifted the AUD to trade into morning sessions at 0.9035 (1.1070). Australian Retail Sales surprised us when figures showed a less than dire -0.7% forecast, coming in at -0.1% in January. All eyes will be on NZ employment data printing Wednesday which is expected to show a rise to over 5.0% from the current 4.8%, almost certainly weakening the NZD. In a couple of weeks, the RBNZ meet and should cut rates by 50 points possibly more if employment data releases poorly. The NZD will be doing well to stay in the 90’s

Current Level: 0.9040
Resistance: 0.9090
Support: 0.9020
Last Weeks Range: 0.9034 – 0.9091

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is back up around the 0.5600 mark this morning against the US Dollar (USD) after bottoming out from the weeks open to 0.5515 after global sentiment towards Trump’s tariff wars went down like a “cup of cold sick”. Volatility went through the roof seen early Monday when the kiwi “gapped off Friday’s close at 0.5630 to 0.5590. The fresh low marks the lowest monthly close (January) since early 2003. New Zealand will at some stage come under attack from Tariff fallouts within time impacting the economy and the value and demand of our exports. Data focus this week is NZ Unemployment with a further rise from 5.1% predicted. Buy the spike, sell the dip.

Current Level: 0.5629
Support: 0.5540
Resistance: 0.5700
Last week’s range: 0.5621 – 0.5704

The 2024 average rate in the AUD/EUR cross is 0.6100.

A head and shoulder chart pattern has emerged on the Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross implying further weakness in the Aussie should retest the 0.6025 (1.6600)  level before going on to consider 0.6015 (1.6630). Although the ECB made comment they need to reconsider “restrictive” policy the EUR has been firmly in charge. The Aussie has been hampered by further talk around a trade war between the US and China signalling a potential hit on Australian exports. Also of note is rhetoric with the RBA cutting from February.

Current Level: 1.6583
Resistance: 1.6630
Support: 1.6530
Last Weeks Range: 1.6349- 1.6576

The 2024 average rate in the AUD/EUR cross is 0.6100.

A head and shoulder chart pattern has emerged on the Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross implying further weakness in the Aussie should retest the 0.6025 (1.6600)  level before going on to consider 0.6015 (1.6630). Although the ECB made comment they need to reconsider “restrictive” policy the EUR has been firmly in charge. The Aussie has been hampered by further talk around a trade war between the US and China signalling a potential hit on Australian exports. Also of note is rhetoric with the RBA cutting from February.

Current Level: 0.6030
Resistance: 0.6050
Support: 0.6015
Last Weeks Range: 0.6032- 0.6116

The 2024 average rate in the AUD/GBP cross is 0.5171.

It will be a dovish leaning Bank of England (BoE) when they meet on Friday morning with expectations of a hold at 4.75%, this may keep the Pound well supported at least in the short term against the Australian Dollar (AUD). The cross has traded into Wednesday at a 2024 low of 0.4985 (2.0060) surpassing the Aug 2023 low of 0.5010 (1.9970). There is growing consensus that the RBA will start cutting rates from next February, we expect 50 points with a decline in recent consumer confidence and pending US/China tariff woes.

Current Level: 2.0080
Resistance: 2.2318
Support: 1.9550
Last Weeks Range: 1.9760- 2.0106

The 2024 average rate in the NZD/EUR cross is 0.5596.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) sits at the August low of 0.5490 (1.8220) against the Euro extending lows over the past couple of weeks. The has been tracking lower against some of the major currencies this week but not the kiwi. ECB’s Lagarde made mention that the ECB’s outlook on restrictive policy is no longer aligned with their changing landscape with inflation and risk balancing. Incoming data will dictate the speed of changing policy ahead. NZ GDP prints tomorrow and should formally take NZ back into recession with an expected growth in the 3rd quarter at -0.2%. We are expecting a push towards 0.5445 (1.8370)

Current Level: 1.8242
Resistance: 1.8360
Support: 1.8200
Last Weeks Range: 1.7969 – 1.8237

The 2024 average rate in the NZD/EUR cross is 0.5596.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) sits at the August low of 0.5490 (1.8220) against the Euro extending lows over the past couple of weeks. The has been tracking lower against some of the major currencies this week but not the kiwi. ECB’s Lagarde made mention that the ECB’s outlook on restrictive policy is no longer aligned with their changing landscape with inflation and risk balancing. Incoming data will dictate the speed of changing policy ahead. NZ GDP prints tomorrow and should formally take NZ back into recession with an expected growth in the 3rd quarter at -0.2%. We are expecting a push towards 0.5445 (1.8370)

Current Level: 0.5480
Support: 0.5450
Resistance: 0.5500
Last week’s range: 0.5483- 0.5565