GBP

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has reversed off last week’s fresh yearly high at 0.6250 (1.6000) to fall back to 0.6205 (1.6120) into Tuesday trading. While German inflation cooled from 2.4% expected to 2.2% y/y in June, German unemployment ticked up. French bonds have posted year highs as French President Macron has sunk further behind in the French election polls. However, The Euro has found support but faces an uphill battle as the French election draws closer with uncertainty looming. The far right Rassemblement National party have 33.2% of the vote in the first round of snap elections the first time ever they have gone over 20%. A break past 0.6190 (1.6160) should signal further downside for the Aussie.

Current Level: 0.6194
Resistance: 0.6240
Support: 0.6170
Last Weeks Range: 0.6188- 0.6251

The Conservative party led by Rishi Sunak are behind in the polls showing the Labour party have an edge. The British Pound (GBP) has come off the recent long term high at 1.8900 to fight back to 0.5265 (1.9000) into morning trading. Prices at 0.5290 (1.8900) have not been seen since early January. Better than expected UK GDP helped improve the GBP off the weekly open as well. Later today we have RBA minutes who will reconfirm high inflation will keep the cash rate higher for longer. Following this is Australian Retail Sales expected to come in hot.

Current Level: 1.9015
Resistance: 1.9100
Support: 1.8900
Last Weeks Range: 1.8909- 1.9107

The Euro (EUR has extended last week’s moves topside Monday to reach a 4-week high against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) of 1.7680 (0.5660). Despite President Macron sinking in the French election polls the Euro continues to push higher. French CPI for June came in at 0.1% as predicted, however the Euro will get its cues from incoming French election data over the next couple of days. Meanwhile German CPI in June came in light at 0.1% vs 0.2% forecast with fresh signs the economy is cooling. CPI y/y also cooled at 2.2% in June down off 2.4%. We could see the EUR retest 0.5650 (1.7700) in the coming days.

Current Level: 1.7727
Resistance: 1.7830
Support: 1.7530
Last Weeks Range: 1.7454 – 1.7651

The Euro (EUR has extended last week’s moves topside Monday to reach a 4-week high against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) of 1.7680 (0.5660). Despite President Macron sinking in the French election polls the Euro continues to push higher. French CPI for June came in at 0.1% as predicted, however the Euro will get its cues from incoming French election data over the next couple of days. Meanwhile German CPI in June came in light at 0.1% vs 0.2% forecast with fresh signs the economy is cooling. CPI y/y also cooled at 2.2% in June down off 2.4%. We could see the EUR retest 0.5650 (1.7700) in the coming days.

Current Level: 0.5641
Support: 0.5610
Resistance: 0.5705
Last week’s range: 0.5665- 0.5729

Range trading continues in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) pair this week. Last week’s moves were a reversal of the previous week with price shifting from the top of the range to the bottom. Currently sitting at 0.4805 (2.0812) as we head into the week. Support is 0.4800 (2.0860) and Resistance is 0.4850 (2.0620) on the chart- we look for a break outside of this zone to gauge further direction. On the Calendar we have the final days leading into the UK elections on the 4th of July.

Current Level: 2.0876
Resistance: 2.1030
Support: 2.0600
Last Weeks Range: 2.0627- 2.0857

Range trading continues in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) pair this week. Last week’s moves were a reversal of the previous week with price shifting from the top of the range to the bottom. Currently sitting at 0.4805 (2.0812) as we head into the week. Support is 0.4800 (2.0860) and Resistance is 0.4850 (2.0620) on the chart- we look for a break outside of this zone to gauge further direction. On the Calendar we have the final days leading into the UK elections on the 4th of July.

Current Level: 0.4790
Resistance: 0.4855
Support: 0.4755
Last Weeks Range: 0.4794- 0.4848

Monday prices in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) extended off the weekly open at 0.9140 (1.0940) to reach 0.9115 (1.0970) early Tuesday. RBA monetary minutes from the meeting 18 June should confirm rhetoric of the RBA to hike 25 points at their August meeting due to ongoing inflationary pressures. The catalyst for the AUD being a top performing currency of late. The govt recently announced “cost of living” policies were inflationary, many debating if tax cuts and energy savings have been a good idea. Australian Retail Sales prints tomorrow and is expected to come in hot which won’t help the RBA situation. Its tough to see the kiwi pushing back in the near/medium term with predictions we could see a retest of the early May low at 0.9065 (1.1030)

Current Level: 1.0972
Resistance: 1.1030
Support: 1.0950
Last Weeks Range: 1.0832 – 1.0962

Monday prices in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) extended off the weekly open at 0.9140 (1.0940) to reach 0.9115 (1.0970) early Tuesday. RBA monetary minutes from the meeting 18 June should confirm rhetoric of the RBA to hike 25 points at their August meeting due to ongoing inflationary pressures. The catalyst for the AUD being a top performing currency of late. The govt recently announced “cost of living” policies were inflationary, many debating if tax cuts and energy savings have been a good idea. Australian Retail Sales prints tomorrow and is expected to come in hot which won’t help the RBA situation. Its tough to see the kiwi pushing back in the near/medium term with predictions we could see a retest of the early May low at 0.9065 (1.1030)

Current Level: 0.9104
Resistance: 0.9130
Support: 0.9065
Last Weeks Range: 0.9122-0.9232

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) recovered off a 6-week low at 0.6055 against the US Dollar (USD) to bounce back towards the weekly close around the 0.6100 zone. Monday saw a fall back to 0.6070 as the cross reversed off bear trend channel resistance. Last week’s Presidential Election leader debate wasn’t pretty with markets digesting prospects of a Trump Presidency. US-China trade bought on risk off tone with the US targeting Chinese AI technology. Downside pressure on the kiwi remains.

Current Level: 0.6056
Support: 0.6040
Resistance: 0.6150
Last week’s range: 0.6056- 0.6139