currency

FX News

AUD/NZD Transfer

Bouncing around usual ranges the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) traded into Tuesday at 0.9190 (1.0880). Breaking below 0.9200 (1.0870) support the Aussie now eyes 0.9175 (1.0900) the late July low. Australian Retail Sales came in hot at 0.5% in July up from June’s -0.8% allowing the AUD to perk up. Looking ahead we have Australian CPI m/m which is forecast to print lower than June’s 5.4% at 5.2%, anything higher than 5.4% will be dangerous for the NZD. Buyers of AUD should consider here.

Current Level: 1.0872
Resistance: 1.0930
Support: 1.0750
Last Weeks Range: 1.0778 – 1.08712

FX News

NZD/AUD Transfer

Bouncing around usual ranges the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) traded into Tuesday at 0.9190 (1.0880). Breaking below 0.9200 (1.0870) support the Aussie now eyes 0.9175 (1.0900) the late July low. Australian Retail Sales came in hot at 0.5% in July up from June’s -0.8% allowing the AUD to perk up. Looking ahead we have Australian CPI m/m which is forecast to print lower than June’s 5.4% at 5.2%, anything higher than 5.4% will be dangerous for the NZD. Buyers of AUD should consider here.

Current Level: 0.9189
Resistance: 0.9300
Support: 0.9150
Last Weeks Range: 0.9198 – 0.9278

 

FX News

NZD/USD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) settled around 0.5900 against the US Dollar (USD) late last week where it still sits into Tuesday trading. Risk assets were boosted slightly by rises in equity indices temporarily, amid weakened global demand and a backdrop of poor sentiment. The kiwi sits dangerously close to the precipice with no real support below 0.5850, all the way to 0.5550 zones. Fed talk at the Jackson Hole event confirmed nothing we didn’t already know with Fed chair Powell keeping his cards close to his chest reiterating he was non-committal. While the Fed has pencilled in one more hike to 5.75% it remains far from certain whether they will actually do it. Non-Farm Payroll releases Friday.

Current Level: 0.5911
Resistance: 0.6100
Support: 0.5880
Last Weeks Range: 0.5884 – 0.5984

FX News

FX Update: Risk assets hold ground

Market Overview

Key Points:

• Bank of America is forecasting 75 points of rate cuts in 2024, the first around June.
• US authorities are becoming increasingly sure that Wagner boss Prigozhin has died in the recent plane crash.
• Former US president Donald Trump’s trial for election interference has been set for 4th March 2024
• China has ditched the last of their travel restrictions with travellers not having to take a test 48 hours prior to entry into the country.
• The US Dollar (USD) has been the strongest currency over the month of August with the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) underperforming, the worst performer.

Major Announcements last week:
• US Home Sales q/q -1.0% vs -1.6% previous
• UK Manufacturing drops to 6 month low
• UoM Consumer Sentiment 69.5 vs 71.2
• French Manufacturing 46.4 in July vs 42.8 predicted

FX News

NZD/AUD Transfer

As we said earlier the Australian Dollar (AUD) came under pressure, but it wasn’t until late Wednesday we saw a shift off 0.9210 (1.0860) levels back to 0.9235 (1.0830). NZ Retail Sales disappointed in the June quarter coming in at -1.0% vs -0.4% the 3rd consecutive decline representing consumers leaving money in their pocket, the biggest contributor being food and beverage with the sector struggling. On the whole, the pair remains well within recent ranges. Next week’s economic docket looks super thin, more of the same looks to be the likely theme.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9225    AUDNZD 1.0833

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9192- 0.9266    AUDNZD 1.0792- 1.0879

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

Detrimental news out of China this week pulled back risk currencies of recent moves, the Australian Dollar (AUD) no exception coming off 0.5200 (1.9230) levels to make 0.5175 (1.9330) early Friday. To be fair on the Pound, UK manufacturing wasn’t exactly a bumper read helping the pull back in the GBP. Recent rate hikes doing the job of sparking a renewed downturn in business activity, the question remains – is it enough to deter the Bank of England (BoE) from raising rates again.?. Buying GBP may want to consider.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5092    GBPAUD 1.9638

The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5018- 0.5101    GBPAUD 1.9603- 1.9925

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

After 5 weeks of downside moves in the Australian Dollar (AUD), US Dollar (USD) the cross took a breather trading just above the weekly open of 0.6402 at 0.6414 as I write. At one point trading up at 0.6485 post a positive day in equities and recovering metal prices. US manufacturing has been a talking point over the past couple of days amid a lack of other data, the index releasing at 47.0 in August compared to 49 in July the 4th consecutive month. The US economy looks to be nearing the crossroads with stagnation a real prospect with worsening spending increasing fears of pending recession. It would take a decent fundamental shift to move the cross off its downside axis, we pick further lower over the coming days/weeks.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6415

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6387- 0.6488

FX News

NZD/USD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has mostly hovered around 0.5920 over the week against the US Dollar (USD) with a short trip to 0.5980 Thursday as equities recovered. Overall, the cross looks very bearish as its peers over the precipice. NZ Retail Sales missed forecast at -1.0% vs -0.4% expected the third time in a row, supporting the pull back in consumer spending of late. US New Home sales, weekly unemployment both helped the greenback, however with upcoming talks from Fed chair Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium on future rate predictions, we could see the Fed head in a different direction quick.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.5917

The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5896- 0.5985

FX News

NZD/GBP Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) broke out of its recent bear channel this week recovering losses to 0.4700 (2.1280) into Friday sessions against the British Pound (GBP). We are not convinced this flurry will continue with fundamentals stacked in favour of further Pound moves. NZ Retail Sales printed down on expectations at -1.0% in the June quarter compared to -0.4% expected. This is the third straight quarter of poor data reflecting lower consumer spending. UK manufacturing also came in lower, confirming a renewed downturn in business activity. Next week’s thin calendar could see the kiwi slip.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4699    GBPNZD 2.1281

 

The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4632- 0.4797    GBPNZD 2.0846- 2.1588

FX News

Key Points This Week

Market Overview:

Key Points:

• The Jackson Hole Symposium gets under way in Wyoming attended by central bankers and financial participants around the world.
• Canadian Retail Sales edged up 0.1% in June from 0.0% expectations confirming a rebound in activity.
• Eurozone services data comes in weak easing concerns over whether the ECB may raise rates in September. ECB’s governing council Nagal says the labour market is strong and it’s too early to consider halting hikes. He also said he doesn’t expect a recession in the near future.
• Japanese CPI for August comes in at 2.9% after 2.0% was predicted.
• High US inflation has put pressure on the Fed with current policy, this in turn is increasing pressure on US industry with a high USD currency. These companies who rely on US profits and foreign receipts are struggling.
• The Australian Dollar (AUD) is the strongest currency this week with the British Pound (GBP) the worst performer.