currency

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) fell back to 0.9355 (1.0690) midweek against the Australian Dollar (AUD) but regained the edge into Friday clawing back losses to 0.9400 (1.0635). NZ Election tomorrow could excite the cross on next week’s open, a National led govt should spike the kiwi, anything else including adding Winston into the mix and the kiwi could weaken considerably purely on uncertainty. Technically resistance looks decent at 0.9460 the close of late May, with downside moves limited to 0.9320 (1.0730) for now. Looking ahead we have NZ CPI q/q and Australian unemployment data printing.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9372 AUDNZD 1.0662

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9354- 0.9425 AUDNZD 1.0609- 1.0690

As we predicted the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) hasn’t been able to hold above 0.6000, reversing lower over 1 cent against the US Dollar (USD) in overnight trading back to 0.5930. US CPI y/y for September came in hot at 3.7% vs 3.6% expected, rallying the greenback hard against most crosses. The rebound in inflationary pressures confirmed with some suggesting earlier it was a short-term gig. Markets reacted by sending treasury yields higher, the US Dollar index was up nearly 1% while US equities slumped by similar margins. The upshot is, this may strengthen chances of the Fed raising rates at their 2 Nov meeting, it would be a bold move. With the pair trading below the 100-day moving average we may see further weakening in the kiwi.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.5920

The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5918- 0.6054

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has reversed off resistance at 0.6010 (1.6640) at the end of the week slipping back into the bull channel seen over the past 8 weeks against the Euro (EUR). The uptick seen could however be limited to the 0.6135 (1.6300) zone as geopolitical tensions heat up in the Gaza Strip. Certainly, with a lack of meaningful data publishing in the pair global uncertainty could dominate.

Current Level: 1.6479
Resistance: 1.7000
Support: 1.6260
Last Weeks Range: 1.6392 – 1.6641

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has reversed off resistance at 0.6010 (1.6640) at the end of the week slipping back into the bull channel seen over the past 8 weeks against the Euro (EUR). The uptick seen could however be limited to the 0.6135 (1.6300) zone as geopolitical tensions heat up in the Gaza Strip. Certainly, with a lack of meaningful data publishing in the pair global uncertainty could dominate.

Current Level: 0.6068
Resistance: 0.6150
Support: 0.5880
Last Weeks Range: 0.6009 – 0.6100

We were bang on with our predictions last week with movement in the British Pound (GBP), Australian Dollar (AUD) with price easing lower off 0.5250 (1.9050) to 0.5220 (1.9160) at the close of the week. Despite geopolitical news in the cross dampening the mood in markets the Aussie has ignored the brief shifting higher on a risk/equity rally to 0.5245 (1.9070) Tuesday. A move above 0.5250 (1.9050) would signal further upside. We think the likelihood is low with consideration of the geopolitical scene.

Current Level: 1.9080
Resistance: 1.9700
Support: 1.8900
Last Weeks Range: 1.8923 – 1.9221

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has largely ignored global tensions developing in the Gaza strip. Monday’s risk markets held the power, the kiwi rallying to 0.5700 (1.7540) this morning from 0.5655 (1.7680) against the Euro (EUR) as US Equities closed up 0.6% in overnight trading. This equals a 12-week high in the cross. Upside moves this week are looking fairly exhausted extending to 0.5715 (1.7500) when considering offshore risks developing.

Current Level: 1.7543
Resistance: 1.8400
Support: 1.7390
Last Weeks Range: 1.7582 – 1.7821

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has largely ignored global tensions developing in the Gaza strip. Monday’s risk markets held the power, the kiwi rallying to 0.5700 (1.7540) this morning from 0.5655 (1.7680) against the Euro (EUR) as US Equities closed up 0.6% in overnight trading. This equals a 12-week high in the cross. Upside moves this week are looking fairly exhausted extending to 0.5715 (1.7500) when considering offshore risks developing.

Current Level: 0.5700
Support: 0.5750
Resistance: 0.5435
Last week’s range: 0.5611 – 0.5687