currency

Early Monday support for the Australian Dollar (AUD) was short lived with price bouncing off 0.9065 (1.1030) to 0.9110 (1.0980). Mid last week price dived out of the “hot” zone between 0.9020 (1.1090) and 0.9110 (1.0980) reaching 0.8945 (1.1180), but this move wasn’t to hold bouncing off the July low back into the familiar “rangy” ground. Earlier the RBNZ cut rates to 4.25% and will do so again 25-50 points at the next meeting in Feb 2025. Today’s Aussie GDP q/q should print favourably around 0.5% for the September quarter giving the AUD added puff. We expect the kiwi to head into Christmas under pressure.

Current Level: 0.9066
Resistance: 0.9110
Support: 0.8970
Last Weeks Range: 0.8954 – 0.9100

In the aftermath of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) dropping the cash rate half a cent to 4.25% the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has been reasonable steady against the US Dollar (USD) pushing higher off 0.5800 style levels to reach 0.5925 at the weekly close. This week’s action has seen the kiwi drop back a little on renewed demand for the greenback with Trump’s warning to the “BRICS” countries against a competing currency to the US Dollar. Adding to the NZD woes was US Manufacturing data which came in above expectations for November, however the industry could encounter uncertainty leading into the new Govt with tariffs in question. The long-term trend in the cross is still very much to the downside. We suggest taking any spikes buying USD.

Current Level: 0.5880
Support: 0.5815
Resistance: 0.5930
Last week’s range: 0.5796 – 0.5928

A lot of this week’s moves in the Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) pair will be dictated by monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October releasing Wednesday. We expect inflation to rise at a faster pace of 2.5% compared to 2.1% in September. This will influence the RBA upcoming decision and the path or future policy. German and Spanish inflation reads are out Thursday and look to also print higher than previous months. Technically on the chart price has bounced higher off 0.6190 (1.6160) support which could signal further upside for the AUD.

Current Level: 1.6142
Resistance: 1.6300
Support: 1.6000
Last Weeks Range: 1.5966- 1.6360

A lot of this week’s moves in the Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) pair will be dictated by monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October releasing Wednesday. We expect inflation to rise at a faster pace of 2.5% compared to 2.1% in September. This will influence the RBA upcoming decision and the path or future policy. German and Spanish inflation reads are out Thursday and look to also print higher than previous months. Technically on the chart price has bounced higher off 0.6190 (1.6160) support which could signal further upside for the AUD.

Current Level: 0.6195
Resistance: 0.6250
Support: 0.6135
Last Weeks Range: 0.6110- 0.6263

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended its run higher against the British Pound (GBP) reaching 0.5200 (1.9225) post Monday’s open off last week’s 0.5110  (1.9570). This move wasn’t to last with the Pound clawing back losses into Tuesday to 0.5170 (1.9340). Tomorrow’s Australian CPI release could strengthen the argument for further policy restrictions if the number comes in higher than 2.1% (September) as we predict. We expect the cross to retest 0.5215 (1.9170) this week.

Current Level: 1.9331
Resistance: 1.9680
Support: 1.9170
Last Weeks Range: 1.9230- 1.9572

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) trades around the 0.5570 (1.7950) area this morning after the EUR rebounded off a 7-week high at 0.5640 (1.7740) late last week. Tomorrow’s RBNZ policy meeting tomorrow should keep the kiwi offered and under pressure with a 50-point cut predicted. The OIS market is pricing in a 50-point cut in December by the ECB taking the cash rate to under 3.0% with the ECB cautious around energy prices and domestic inflationary pressures. The bear channel in the cross looks fairly robust with the setup favouring a push towards 0.5555 (1.8000) over the coming days.

Current Level: 1.7966
Resistance: 1.8200
Support: 1.7835
Last Weeks Range: 1.7744 – 1.8072

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) trades around the 0.5570 (1.7950) area this morning after the EUR rebounded off a 7-week high at 0.5640 (1.7740) late last week. Tomorrow’s RBNZ policy meeting tomorrow should keep the kiwi offered and under pressure with a 50-point cut predicted. The OIS market is pricing in a 50-point cut in December by the ECB taking the cash rate to under 3.0% with the ECB cautious around energy prices and domestic inflationary pressures. The bear channel in the cross looks fairly robust with the setup favouring a push towards 0.5555 (1.8000) over the coming days.

Current Level: 0.5566
Support: 0.5495
Resistance: 0.5610
Last week’s range: 0.5533- 0.5635

This cross has been choppy over the past 4 weeks, but the overall trend has been NZD supportive with price coming from 0.4580 (2.1840) late October to 0.4655 (2.1490) this morning. NZ Retail Sales came in at -0.1% for the September quarter, while we have been unable to work out how this is possible. According to our retail clients they are battling to break even – sentiment is certainly not represented by a  -0.1% read. Tomorrow’s RBNZ should cut half a cent to 4.25% – possibly 75 points to 4.00%. We expect to see 4.00% with further slippage in the NZD.

Current Level: 2.1510
Resistance: 2.1780
Support: 2.1430
Last Weeks Range: 2.1407- 2.1625