currency

Australian Retail Sales yesterday came in poor at -0.4% compared to 0.2% predicted. Although the number wasn’t flash it only temporarily halted the Aussie run higher. Prices reached 1.1000 (0.9090) early Monday before falling back to 1.0960 (0.9125) over the release. This morning’s 1.0995 (0.9095) is a fresh yearly low and indicates a push back towards the prior 1.1100 (0.9080) area may be targeted. NZ unemployment ticked higher to 4.3% this morning in the March quarter was bang on expectations however the figure has been largely balanced out by high migration numbers.

Current Level: 0.9083
Resistance: 0.9200
Support: 0.9075
Last Weeks Range: 0.9093- 0.9202

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) started the week in a positive mood extending gains made last week against the US Dollar (USD) to 0.5980. This wasn’t to last, equity markets started to fall into the red and US consumer confidence showed a pessimistic look, the third month straight. The cross dropped sharply overnight to 0.5890 – over half a cent. To make things worse Tuesday’s local ANZ business outlook gauge also fell to its lowest level since September 2023. NZ jobs numbers just released saw a rise to the unemployment rate to 4.3% from 4.0% in the December quarter. Coming up Thursday morning we have the Fed meeting with no change from 5.5% expected and later US Non-Farm Payroll. With prices down under 0.5900 we are not surprised; further downside bias is predicted.

Current Level: 0.5881
Support: 0.5850
Resistance: 0.6000
Last week’s range: 0.5881- 0.5968

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has bounced back from 0.5995 (1.6680) losses over the last couple of trading against the Euro (EUR) reaching 0.6055 (1.6515) this morning. Risk sentiment came roaring back towards the close of the week and into Monday after conflicts between Iran and Israel Friday were downplayed. We see resistance at 0.6060 (1.6500) levels the fib 50% retracement of last week’s move. Aussie inflation report for the March quarter prints tomorrow- 0.8% forecast vs 0.6% previous, more importantly this should shift the y/y number from 4.1% to 3.4% and may put pressure on the AUD. A possible retest to 0.6025 (1.6600) levels has a chance.

Current Level: 1.6504
Resistance: 1.6600
Support: 1.6500
Last Weeks Range: 1.6412- 1.6680

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has bounced back from 0.5995 (1.6680) losses over the last couple of trading against the Euro (EUR) reaching 0.6055 (1.6515) this morning. Risk sentiment came roaring back towards the close of the week and into Monday after conflicts between Iran and Israel Friday were downplayed. We see resistance at 0.6060 (1.6500) levels the fib 50% retracement of last week’s move. Aussie inflation report for the March quarter prints tomorrow- 0.8% forecast vs 0.6% previous, more importantly this should shift the y/y number from 4.1% to 3.4% and may put pressure on the AUD. A possible retest to 0.6025 (1.6600) levels has a chance.

Current Level: 0.6059
Resistance: 0.6060
Support: 0.6065
Last Weeks Range: 0.5995- 0.6093

UK Retail Sales depreciated the British Pound (GBP) late in the week against the Australian Dollar (AUD) reversing earlier gains made by the GBP after geopolitical tensions after Iran attacks on Israel. Coming off 1.9480 (0.5135) to close around 1.9270 (0.5190) the GBP extended losses to 1.9120 (0.5230) in early Tuesday trading. Equity markets and stable commodity levels have also supported the AUD, the S&P up over 1% in NY trading. On the docket this week is Aussie CPI q/q for March expected to print higher. Watch for a re-test of moves towards 0.5240 (1.9090).

Current Level: 1.9127
Resistance: 1.9530
Support: 1.9100
Last Weeks Range: 1.9200- 1.9480

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) bounced back off Monday’s open at 0.5530 (1.8090) to reach 0.5560 (1.7980) into Tuesday trading. 0.5560 (1.7980) is the 50% fib retracement points of recent high and lows and suggests the kiwi may have been overbought to current levels. We favour a retest of the 0.5540 (1.8050) this week data dependant. Eurozone Services and Manufacturing print tonight expected to reflect modest rises in March.

Current Level: 1.7998
Resistance: 1.8100
Support: 1.7900
Last Weeks Range: 1.7875 – 1.8134

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) bounced back off Monday’s open at 0.5530 (1.8090) to reach 0.5560 (1.7980) into Tuesday trading. 0.5560 (1.7980) is the 50% fib retracement points of recent high and lows and suggests the kiwi may have been overbought to current levels. We favour a retest of the 0.5540 (1.8050) this week data dependant. Eurozone Services and Manufacturing print tonight expected to reflect modest rises in March.

Current Level: 0.5556
Support: 0.5525
Resistance: 0.5585
Last week’s range: 0.5514- 0.5594

UK Manufacturing tonight should show modest improvements to orders, the only data on the roster this week in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) cross and may improve the GBP of the current 0.4795 (2.0860) level if the data impresses. The kiwi is trading at a 6-week high at the moment after breaking past resistance at 0.4790 (2.0870). Earlier UK Retail Sales was unimpressive with rises to auto fuel and non-food store sales, the data adding to the GBP weakness. Our pick is for the NZD to continue to the downside after the recent run up.

Current Level: 2.0086
Resistance: 2.1200
Support: 2.0750
Last Weeks Range: 2.0911- 2.1203