currency

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) slipped below the key 0.6000 level against the US Dollar (USD) late last week closing around the 0.5995 mark. Last week’s gloomy growth release is taking a toll on the kiwi, adding in some less than dovish speak from the Federal Reserve and the NZD has and could continue to struggle. Overnight we saw a rebound to 0.6030 but declined back to 0.6000 as I wrote. The importance of having orders in the market, this is a good example. Over the next day or so we will get a read on how markets are perceiving the strength in the NZD. The longer the cross trades around 0.6000 the harder the break to the downside could be.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6002

The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5982- 0.6030

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to go from strength to strength against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) with the cross reaching 0.9175 (1.0900) early this morning a fresh 3rd of November low. Pricing around 0.9140 (1.0940) is the next stop in the pair for support. Through this zone and we are targeting 0.9075 (1.1020) the lowest daily close since October 2022. On the topside any push back through 0.9245 (1.0820) would indicate a momentum shift. Australian CPI y/y for February prints later today and could strengthen the Aussie further if the data is higher than the 3.5% forecast.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9184 AUDNZD 1.0883

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9173- 0.9231 AUDNZD 1.0832- 1.0901

It’s been a big couple of days for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) cross. UK CPI came in below expectation at 3.4% based on 3.5% forecast, with the Bank of England (BoE) saying they are getting close to cutting interest rates as early as May after the central bank kept rates on hold overnight at 5.25% in a 1-8 vote. With inflation expected to fall further in the coming months the BoE will start to show more flexibility. The NZ economy has formally dropped into recession with numbers showing a dip in growth in the December quarter of -0.1% after 0.1% was expected. The pair reached 0.4745 (2.1080) midweek before reversing to 0.4780 (2.0930) into Friday.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4773 GBPNZD 2.0951

The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4744- 0.4792 GBPNZD 2.0868- 2.1079

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has extended its hold over the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) over the week, posting 1.0870 (0.9200) this morning, a November 2023 high. After starting the week out at 1.0780 (0.9280) the kiwi hasn’t got a look in. A combination of an RBA holds at 4.35% with the central bank saying the war on inflation isn’t over yet, a push higher in Iron ore pricing and the NZ economy dropping into a formal recession all assisting the AUD. NZ GDP printed at -0.1% after a -0.3% read in the September quarter surprising markets. The AUD now targets resistance of 1.0930 (0.9150) on the chart.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9195 AUDNZD 1.0866

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9193- 0.9309 AUDNZD 1.0742- 1.0877

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) initially did a good job of shrugging off softer than expected growth yesterday but has suffered losses in overnight NY trading dropping to 0.6040 from 0.6100 against the US Dollar (USD). NZ GDP for the March quarter printed at -0.1% after 0.1% was predicted putting the NZ economy in a formal recession after a negative read of -0.3% in the December 2023 quarter. Earlier the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 5.50% with markets getting what they wanted with 3 rate cuts in 2024, Powell saying inflation is on a bumpy road back to 2.0% with the January 2025 forecast being revised up. The kiwi may drop further and retest key 0.6000 support our view.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6046

The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6017- 0.6106

The recent weakness in the AUD has seen the cross-rate with the EUR fall steadily, from highs of around 0.6200 in early 2024, to current levels of 0.6050. Recent spikes in European inflation levels may lead to deferment of signalled rate cuts which would add further downward momentum to the cross with the AUD.

Current Level: 1.6666
Resistance: 1.6949
Support: 1.6129
Last Weeks Range: 1.6504- 1.6597

The recent weakness in the AUD has seen the cross-rate with the EUR fall steadily, from highs of around 0.6200 in early 2024, to current levels of 0.6050. Recent spikes in European inflation levels may lead to deferment of signalled rate cuts which would add further downward momentum to the cross with the AUD.

Current Level: 0.6000
Resistance: 0.6200
Support: 0.5900
Last Weeks Range: 0.6025- 0.6059

The AUD/GBP cross-rate, has been deteriorating from highs of 0.5350, to recent trades around 0.5150. The Bank of England meet this week, following on from the latest CPI inflation reading, on Wednesday. If the inflation number continues to tumble, then this should ensure some prospect of rate cuts in the UK, and stability for the cross against the AUD. Any signs of reemergent inflation in the UK, could add some upward momentum to the GBP, and only add to recent losses on the cross.

Current Level: 1.9409
Resistance: 1.9802
Support: 1.8868
Last Weeks Range: 1.9305- 1.9440